Typhoon Tip

I definitely agreed with you Scott, when you did - I recall you're statement. In fact, dig it up - don't be surprised if I pinged you back the appropriate emoji ... It's just that I guess it was like reading the recipe and thinking that sounds like the right kind of meal, but now one can really smell it cooking and it's very palatable - haha

Whereas, though I do not formally publish my season thoughts ... I do in snark sometimes proffer some obnoxious, borderline troll - but not specifically because I like to engage in that practice, just that by default, my position ( partially rooted in how I really feel) may oppose the consensus. In this case, I didn't see how this winter would be 'better' than last. I really didn't. Come hell or high water, I figured it for a forced affair with a larger clearly physically outclassing prison associate, when it comes to winter enthusiasm. People have their ways and means... but, I do admit to believing the folding/block tendency of the autumn and spring is a real aspect that is reproducible, and in between those, we have been also repeating fast flow that rips at the standard cyclone model ( in the means ) - all this as strongly motivating tendency, by all factors in mind, to recur. Ranging from those are conventional, to those that are in research. I don't bother to put this down on proverbial paper and post seasonal outlooks. I observe too much vitriol between those that advance these outlooks - it seems like doing so is allegorical to raising your hand at all on Vieques Island - a.k.a ('Lord of The Flies'). There's a petty kind of celebrity seeking competition in that space that's not really ever even going to have a very positive return - nothing anyone does in here or in social media, in the space of season forecasting is going to seat one next to a 'star' of Meteorology or in general. Ahgh... don't mind me. I'm leaning more and more into existential nihilism with age.

Lol, yeah I figured as much... But then in essence, my post more agrees with that sentiment, and the fact of lack of delivery into this region of the continent. It's brevity is sort of symbolic of losing overwhelmingly but getting a single punch in just before the bouncers carry away the cold. heh

This may only have symbolic value - not sure... - but something I've noticed in the past. When there is an advent of some extreme, ...if you are looking for it, you may notice either in aggregate or all at once, there is compensating event(s) that takes place within weeks, short weeks sometimes, that follow the dramatic departure advent. In a pure bean counter perspective that makes sense. The climate is not representative of the extreme. Something has to atone. ( otherwise ... you're climate is changing - haha) If we knife in a -3SD knuckle stinger, but it's back over 30 just 24 hours later, heading ( probably ) for a week of sustained 40s - cloud and cat paws permitting - the cold is atoned for by the following Thursday or something. It reminds me of that.

Heh... this thing's nothing as far as impact on those aspects - not barking at you just musing here... It's in an out too fast to even make an impact, really. You play a couple poker rounds at the local Elks club and sleep one off and it's back over 30.

Right - best laid plans ... LOL In this business, if 'laid' means how we take it after having implemented the most lucid rational, objective route? Sure. No, but ... yes, if I was forecasting February, I'd slope pretty significantly warmer and dryer than normal ..roughly the 10th - 20th...25th ( perhaps the rest of the way). But, I would put my probability at say, 70% ? I don't have a formal arithmetic in that number - it's more a super duper amazing sciency approach of how I 'feel' about this stuff at this time. However, I did elucidate some pretty damning reasoning ( above) so it's valid conceptually based upon that foundation.

I was/have been in this camp, too - but then it recently occurs to me, the 'under-performance' aspect was because the wave was attempting to penetrate the 8-1-2 phase spaces. This? other side - The 8-1-2 is in destructive interference with an on-going well-couple Nina ..that may have contributed to why the wave was seemingly incapable of getting through the "La Nina firewall" - jokingly calling it.. Contrasting - and this is no aver on my part...just supposition - this particular migration path through phase 3-4-5-6 is in constructive interference. One thing I know is true ... the MJO is not a pattern forcing mechanism. It is a pattern enhancing mechanism... BUT, that depends on whether it is in constructive or destructive interference as it attempts to move into down stream modes of the circulation. This being La Nina - and a well coupled one - that does lend support/confidence ...if not at least a head nod, in favor of what CPC is stating.

Yeah ... I'm just nerdy enough to be interested in that. Ha ha... But you know, there's real world concerns there. Obviously, early bud is a vulnerable state to - ironically ... - freezes. I also read an article a couple years ago when I noticed some species of broad leaf maple flipped to full color in mid September. My own "General Sherman" 300 year old sugar maple flashed over to gorgeous pastel yellow, when it normally turns air glowing saffron orange, about 1 month before typical. There wasn't really anything obviously aberrant about the climate of that preceding summer - not that I was personally aware. Apparently others took notice, hence the write.. Anyway, it explained how 2020, despite the smoke weeks of late August, was an overly proficient growth season for many tree species. Here's the explanation: once the tree blows it's carbon cycle budget for that year, it doesn't try to keep producing ... the pigmentation retreats, color results ( that's paraphrasing mind you -). I'd never heard of that, but ... if say our growing season is/was extended(ing) at a faster rate then vegetation species are adapting seems intuitive perhaps. Also, orchard crops? I have buddies in other texting circles doing the 'riveting' mid aged dad topic of lawn observation ... ( god ) ... saying that their grass never turned completely typically beige. I would also say that on one of those 50+ days over the last two weeks, I could have swore as I parked my car, a small mosquito was bouncing off my window. Someone once joked ( if not, should have) that this has been 'autumn 2022-2023' the whole way

I almost wonder ... could we be looking at an early prognostic/anatomy of another one of these historic February warm bursts. Certainly there is precedence over the last 10 years... 2017, and then again in 2020... Pretty sure there was another year where Feb hosted a party, too. I know there's also been a couple of March warm ups too. Point being, the frequency increase is noted, and looking at these present indicators et al - You know, it's not risking anyone personally to have to face the "severe" awesomely beautiful weather week - but standard deviation still claims victory. That's our greatest departure behavior during these last 10 years. I find that utter 'under the radar' - ness to be almost comical.

Heh, add CPC's take to the list: "• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

Distant GEFs mean beginning to parrot the Euro Weeklies for week 2.5+. They/that certainly could change, but it's something I noticed of the overnight's. Fwiw, been advertising the super position hypothesis for February ( considering its application for the whole of spring frankly ... but cross that bridge -). I happen to agree with ( I think it was) Eric Fisher's tweet last week - at least in principle. If indeed the MJO evolves through the 3-6 migration, then possibly terminating back into N/S thereafter, over the top of Pac circulation mode that the models are just aching to couple or recouple with Nina, that doesn't likely end well for winter enthusiasts. In fact, it likely ends unwell. The 3-4-5-6 MJO would be in a constructive interference with a well-coupled La Nina. Those two are a soul mate power couple on the atmospheric Zodiac ... Almost cannot result in a cold stormy eastern North America. If it did, ...it would probably be something like the 1::10 return rate rarity in doing so. We'll see.

..and maybe even a cursory evaluation of the last 50 consecutive IPCC publications could have factored into that? lol

I'd 'almost' argue the thread really isn't that constructively intended haha...

I don't think any operational run can be trusted ...even to standard error, for anything beyond the cold incursion scenario. I find it difficult to believe - for example - the GFS will succeed in having 0 order pattern markers - meaning no pattern period, on earth? It's selling high velocity chaos, which is almost impossible of the geometric sphere to do that without organization of some form or the other emerging. P.o.s. time with guidance and the others are not much better with wild continuity changes in their own rights.

That looks like someone rip-n'-read the (MJO + La Nina climo)/ 2 = another 2017 80F February anomaly. Unfortunately...the idea has merit. But, like Will's product then demos, there are conflicting signals - not to mention that product rendition above. Which I don't really have much faith in the weeklies out ECM but that's another story. I personally don't know but would still warn people ...the look above has precedence spanning the last 10 years of Februaries - or hybrid versions of that. I've mentioned this in the past...

whao .. wait a cosecant here hmm

hahaha... crickets

Feb10/11 offering some eye candy.

There is only one model that is a direct ..( or even indirect as far as I am aware - ) integration of climate, with real time geophysical processing: I provided an op-ed about that a couple weeks ago. Not sure what thread or whereupon it has been scrolled...heh, but it is the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). There's an essay/paper on it - don't have the link right handing - that explains how it is probably susceptible to C02 variances ...etc. It's base-line is 1988 ppm ( I believe it read -), and is cited as why the model tends to maintain a cool bias. Otherwise, the GFS and Euor and GGEM and UKMET and KOREAN, and ICON and Alessandra Ambrosio ...etc..etc., do not saddle their processing with climate.

I wonder what the return rate on 'great years' really is. There's probably no way to reconcile 'qualitative' vs 'quantitative' in trying to answer that... One is by design, one is what's actually built. If we think of a 100" winter at Springfield Massachusetts as a great year, I guess you wait 50 years between great years. Ha - If average snow, with administration of enough cold that we don't have to puke it in +8 F means is construed as a great, ... that has not happen in 10 years. My point is, I don't think we have had a lot of great years in the last 23. I think we have had some exceptionally good interludes within years that had a lot of disappointing spans. That's what it really hearkens to my memory. I don't know. It's anecdotal and probably not ultimately an influence -able discussion point. But even 2015 for me was a shit winter that happened to have a 3 week period of ... some kind of freak thing. Half the year simply did not exist. I mean, we can compared that to this and say through January 20 - which year was worse. But, Feb had not happened yet in 2015 so don't let that cloud our judgement, the two years were strikingly bad prior to that 3 week period of lore. The subjective take on 2015 is that it was a historically great winter - or I could easily see that in one's spirit. But in terms of time? It was half and half. Ha, I never passed an exam with 50%. In terms of snow totals? best in history - sure.

Right - and if that is true... it was out of phase.

Yeah... and also, folks should think of the destructive vs constructive interference as not one or the other. It's really about phasing proficiency. Doing so in/at different aspects dimensions, as well. Example, .. do EPOs tend ( for whatever reason ) to move in concert with NAOs... ? Or, do these subsidiary polar indexes of the AO, disconnect from the AO - a lesser likely state, but one that happens from time to time. But also, how these field d(mode) wrt to one another... It's true with the PNA and WPO ..etc etc... The d(modes) in d(time) is one dimensional aspect. It can influence the proficiencies at sub-index scales, too, more indirectly. Basically there's no end to this rabbit hole of complexity so ... trying to parse cycles would have it's own headaches capable of putting one into a coma long before they hit the insurmountable task of enduring CC's addition administration of pain LOL

There was cold air around ... it did not get involved ( crucially) ... One takes risks when summarily looking at end numbers then drafting damning conclusions, either way. Have to understand what happened at discrete scales.

Little bit long op-ed: There's kind of a subjective-objective relay going on ... ( that phrase makes no sense ha!) ... But, in short, the pattern may look below... it averages a little below in verification. It may look modestly above average, we get a Feb 2017 run at 80. Perhaps not exactly like that... But when on the subjective side of the relay, whatever the pattern modeled impression has been, the objective or observed after numbers are consummately biasing warmer relative to whatever even the 'best' effort was to be fair. You know - ha ha - maybe that is how climate change manifest. Not in why x-y-z storm flopped to rain. Nor why a-b-c models can't stabilize the teleconnector mass-fields. This may cast an allusion to models not handling a warming world - that may be the source for that debate, as it's coming from the side of supposed technology failure - nothing about the preceding or succeeding takes a side in said debate. I have given some thought to this latter debate about warmth vs modeling the atmosphere. Firstly, it is entirely correct to assert the physics in the models are properly assessing based on fixed thermodynamic and fluid mechanical computations. That's not debatable. Warmer or cooler world has zero effectiveness on those physics - to employ metaphor: the formulas (ultimately the models) are machinery... and the gears in that machine do not differentiate just because they are fed warm(cooler) values respectively. However, the trope, 'it is not that simple' unfortunately may be apropos. The following are questions worth science journey in my mind that should be answered before attempting any conclusions - a process that would likely only engender even more questions... In a warmer(ing) world, there could conceivably be spatial or dimensional ( time included...) layout changes in the mean jet positions. Example, summer HC expansion ... pushes the ambient summer jet farther N, where then C-forcing causes changes in the evolution, length and amplitude of ST ridging residence and resonance W-E... In the winter, ambient gradient is adding balanced geopotential wind speed of the flow - faster flow could certainly also lend to altering the typical planetary wave dimensions (speed in the flow is a variable in wave mechanics). It's mathematical... These above aspect would have to be proven as non-factor-able. Because here is why that really matters. Yes the models will predict positions of jets based on what they are given... But, if those positions are different than the statistical past climate, that would impose break-downs wrt Teleconnection correlations: statistically suggestive tendencies in region B, due to modulation(s) taking place in region A. In short... a -NAO of -2 SD, west or east limb, may correlate to D.C. to Boston's weather typology, differently than prior to the modulation of the jet fields - if this latter is proven to be true. It's a fascinating discussion. I don't - or tend not to rather, suggest this year is a 'victim' of something in the above field of supposition and vague posits, outright. What is happening could certainly take place 100 years ago. Take the 06z GFS... I saw three disturbances that could snow. The problem this year is an unrelenting destructive interference predicament, a persistence that doesn't lend to any notion that it will suddenly become constructively interfering, and at last allow anything to f*ing happen at all. There's something about this year that seems to not be able to overcome the destructive interference scenario - which is basically when you have sufficient disturbances, cold vs warm gradient in every direction ... yet lack crucial phases for interaction. One trick that may help elucidate, if you loop most GFS deterministic solutions, really fast, such that you get a fast motion impression of what's going on, what emerges is a sense that there are two QPF pathways. They parallel one another, but never the twain shall meet. One is snow, the other is rain, disconnected - often a gap of zero QPF aisles between. And it has been like this since the Xmas debacle, really. That is an emergent property, in the virtual mean of the model run, exposing failed interaction of critical mass fields -imho. I roll eyes and don't want to hear it said that there is a lack of S/Ws, or no cold air... That's not what is/has been going on. There is a construction problem in the systemic circulation, all over the hemisphere, that's resulting in < climate storm production. Maybe it's La Nina. Maybe it's climate change. Maybe it's both. Maybe it's just dumb f*ing luck - bad luck. Or maybe it's all three... It is what it is.

Yup .. unfortunately for the modeling cinema addicts there's still very little worth more than fleeting discontinuity runs tainted with troll opportunities to fill needles with these days. It really is turning into a stunningly long, persistent destructive interfering hemisphere. That's really why-for the cessation of events. There are S/W and cold and warm gradients in every direction, utterly out of phases that force crucial interaction. It occurs to me ... back in my college days I recall a moment whence Dr Colby and I discussed how big events tend to precede extended periods of quiescence. We didn't venture but smaller speculation as to why, perhaps there is a kind of mechanical power budget and the storm kind of like over drafts. There may in fact be some sort of geophysical truth to that. Beneath any such enlightenment, symbolism almost insists the Buffalo Bomb was thus the curse that molded the destiny of the 2022-2023 N/A future, ever since. Whether there could ever be science to prove the 'big bomb' cash-out physics ... there really has been < "climate storm budget" realization ever since. These piddling events that wrung up 113 pages of sanguine frenzy, 'what needs to happen so that' over 2 or 3" ... that was just withdraw syndrome driving people to do that. Lol. Maybe only symbology, maybe more, but that bomb really did nothing for the local enthusiast agenda while it seemed to sew fate, either way. I feel a little like I committed the sports commentator jinx, how 'Joe has never allowed a goal in over time in his career,' was said about 34 seconds before Joe's team loses in the overtime at play. In this case, I dared mention the vulnerable risk period between the 2nd and 7th could also express as just a cold wave. I said, precisely f*ing that! I take it back! I take it back! So ... we get through this week, the SPV and N/Stream elephant ass all roll on out... The other side may be obscured some by all that in the foreground... Models really haven't demoed much continuity - not that they necessarily need to beyond day 5. Otherwise, it appears the previous pattern dynamic recurs. It took this almost two weeks to get the pattern change here... So it lasts a week and then we settle back into that same old oscillating between cold that ends up more normalized, followed by +3 days.