Typhoon Tip

I've been noticing this for years, actually. I don't look at any MOS or 2-meter T products anymore, as my ability to quick calc the adiabat and adding some perfunctory ( CC ?) five. That does vastly superior to any of those machine interpolations. It's weird that all modeling technology, despite any source ... is low on 2-m, always. Well - not always... If it's inundated saturation, sure. I don't believe - seriously - that's CC.. I think there's a systemic problem in mixing/BL handling. It's hard to know for certain what drives that. It's also typically worse from roughly now through early August... every year.

Every year has it's own 'personality' ... I agree this year's been a little unusual - to put it softly ... - wrt to the bold statement. I mentioned this to Will when commiserating yesterday, that this year has been strangely failing in despite some more advantaged/conventional aspects. Take 2006-2007.. At least through mid January, that year had no conventional aspects. Nothing... it was utterly shut completely down, both pattern, and contained events. 0 winter definition. Period. For 45 days... This year, that was not true... yet, may as well be the same result.

wouldn't that be hilarious... I can see that in the opening scene of a comedic genre film, where there's rush to cut to commercial because the star of the movie, a hapless on-camera talen, loses it, and his/her exit interview is an extended outlook that that says, "piece of shit" for the next 10 days

Haha... I was just going to say... well, actually, I was going to say, "the GFS has no interest in a warm up at all" ... In fact, that looks like a steady diet of flat waves capable of snow right through the SE ridge flex. ...actually it does have a cutter, too. little hyperbole. Re the Euro: its precarious synoptics, nearing D10 ( high confidence, I know!), totes an 850 mb continental WCB with 850mb of +13C. The PGF suggests 15-20 kts of tumbling mix, too. I checked the RH fields just for shits and giggles and they're nada on clouds. 700, 500, 300's all < 50% RH at 18z preceding... That would be probably 74F day. Yep... here we go again. Just like to remind, ...we put up mid 80s off 13C at 850, as we went super adiabat - dry air heat late winter into early spring, prior to green up, can mix BL very tall. That was in 2017. The point is...it can happen, not claiming any analog. So ironically, heat has a mechanism for over producing prior to the continental DP sucking kinetic heat. That said, precarious should be underscored. The entire Canadian shield is actually -20 or lower at 850 mb, if/when very stupidly using the Euro at this range. And actually ...the gradient between the warm tongue of air described above, and that cold mass near by in Canada, is very steep. This is like sniffing out a mere warm sector to me ( wrt the Euro...), more so than defining an extended pattern stay. I mean it seems that way.. That cold lurking by, which is present in GEFs ensemble systems too... so a smidge of cross guidance support on the gradient idea.., is a mere synoptic giga movement from ending any debate. Well anyway... I realize the La Nina climo this, and historic precedence for torching that... yup, all that. But we have to pay attention to metrics too, and a progressive pattern trend with embedded opportunities for amplitude, with so much cold loaded not far away, could also lend to GFS type evolution - even if its perhaps overdoing it. The funny thing is... if you took the GFS' 00z snow event around that time, and averaged with the Euros 74 F utopia, what do you get? The same 42 F cloudy p.o.s. agonizingly uninspired boring winter we've had all along. Yup...that's my official forecast... piece of shit. LOL

Yeah good question but after studying the graphs of the propagators (I can’t pick it up right now I’ll do it tomorrow night if anyone’s interested) … The propagation is a logarithmic decay in a downward progression gradually increasing the x-coordinate until it finally breaches the tropopause. So that curvature and trajectory typically takes 20 days. The AO, it doesn’t start interacting with the tropopause that’s when the index goes negative because that’s when the stabilization inversion starts breaking down the vortex; blocking nodes erupt and the annular structure of the polar region buckled around them.

You’re right… But I kind of nested a point in there that if we map what you’re saying over the top of Lanina climo …that kind of changes the landscape a little. I mean we’re just talking early prognostic measures here …it can certainly break either way. After having studied those sudden stratosphere warming events going back to 1979 very intently over the years I’ve just come to find those that happen in February are less representative in forcing the negative AO in spring also not as much realization of negative temperature departures at mid latitude. I also agree that the application of SSW is - at least for me - come under question for the usefulness frankly. Because I’ve seen the AO meander quite negative in years where there’s a SSW and subsequent propagation took place … you couldn’t parse out what was being caused by the SSW what was just there because of other planetary mechanisms

20 days. You put a ?… I was just answering your question OK there’s no condescension - if you know the information you know the information but it didn’t look like you did because the example you labeled is not a propagating SSW - which was my only point.

You need to read the post I put in above - particularly the bold statement. SSW doesn't mean anything to the mid latitudes of the planet if that is not happening. The AO can be negative with or without the SSW factor constructively interfering ... but the correlation between SSW is 3 weeks, then a -AO ensues as the PV stabilizes.

If an SSW happens now ... and proves to be a downward propagating phenomenon/mass ... through the vertical coordinates of the stratospheric column, the tropopausal interaction times for early March... If said evolutionary arc begins in a week, it times for mid March... and so on. There is no -AO correlation prior to that time lagged offset. That's awfully late in the solar calendar. The mid latitude flow may be breaking down? That's the climate for that time of year March --> ... hense 'bowling season' Cut offs that if timed right, can produce like April '97, but far more commonly they ruin 10 days with 39 F light rain. That is the total circuiting manifold of the AO beginning to disconnect as that month moves on. In a La Nina year with a history of actually being better coupled (more so than the last year and prior..>)... mm. La Nina notoriously favor warmer springs. It's like we are running out of time for SSWs, made even worse by the latter climo suggestion. We could actually fit mid month's warm up...followed by a would-be attempt at a 2 week recovery... then fade, nicely prior to any influence at mid latitudes by an SSW ... mid March. When they are that late... I just wouldn't put much hope in that if I were the crew.

heh...as a morbid experiment... if you took every day's worth of temperature and cloud cover averages for this winter, and averaged them out, I bet that mean would look and feel just exactly like right at this moment. This ... this is our winter, 2022-2023 lol

Lol.... like, the way this winter is going, that evidence will have to be yesterday - seems like this year could pull off the quantum uncertainty of snowing 13"/hour while it's plain rain.

The bold is it in a nut shell. Yup - I said almost the exact thing in internal monologue earlier today - we are verifying signals really well, but the results have been just about 0%. Very bizarre. There is a storm signal on the EC that's been there for 2 weeks, really. But it's probably going to be too late and clobbering the Maritime region instead. It's solid signal with nothing to show for it. It's the persistence in doing that, specifically too. The Buffalo Bomb. Again... huge signal, verified ... by soring butts. w t f I guess the frustration there is that yeah...signals don't guarantee a result - we all know that. But, never ? You'd expect after 15 or 20 signals show up, 1 mother f'er would...

I wrote a paragraph to some other poster with a weird handle like Djii l-m-n-o-p or whatever, earlier about this. This seems a little different this time. The handling has been too on or off, more wholesale, with whether additional cyclogen will exist along the upper MA at the end of the week. It's not usually like that and it makes me wonder about assimilation.

Or whatever we wanna call it - good riddance ... I'd rather 'reset' on the far side of the mid month - ... The way I figure we got a 2 week window through about Mar 3, then we're in a bowling season ... which is like 60 F blase' faire days that could April '97. haha... can you imagine that, 35" of blue to make the season average -

Yeah.. the three run trend got summarily shut down. Some guidance were inching back with the week's end event, but all that work over the last 3 .. 4 cycles just got dashed. It seems, however, that we are flip flopping with the amount of actual trough mechanics coming off the Pacific. It seems about every 3rd or so group of runs has been carrying more or less trough potency across the continental mid latitudes. That strikes me as - maybe - data assimilation irregularities. The governing total mechanical space is entirely contained over the open Pacific expanse until 36+ hours from now. This used to be much more of a factor up through about 10 or so years ago, assimilation and detection in data sparse regions. But improvements in assimilation became pretty notable around that time - since then...we don't see as much corrections upon relay off the ocean over western North America. That being true, it doesn't lend to assimilation irregularities being the cause presently. Still, these are really quite notable on-off back and forths in handling for some reason.

Mixed emotions... Like, light or no wind moments in post Feb 8..10th sun, in 48 F, is remarkably sexy to the senses ...and in that soothe the last thing I want is protracted winter. But, then later that evening ...the new runs come out with an 1888er out there, and the only thing I wanna see is a cold source available to the vision. I can turn it on or off pretty quickly when either bias is believable. As an aside, February's remind me of the antithesis of August. You can be sitting in close to triple digit heat on Aug 15, and mere weeks later ... some anomalous cold plume has grapple and air that smells like snow. You can't say that if it's a hot day in May... The same sort of 'seasonal boundary' effect happens going the other way. Not this year... but it is conceivable to be logging a real winter, and be in a gelid winter storm scenario on the 20th of the February ... and be 80 mere weeks later. You can't really say that in December. Aug and Feb are like unsung boundary months ... For those that are in tune to that affect, knowing that a different world is 'right there,' or could be. I remember one year recently we had a March Nor'easter. It came in at 27 or so F, with S+, and some wind kicked in toward mid morning. The event totals ~ 10" Just when it was going to get special, the temp pushed toward 32..33 and snow type went wetter - the invisibility improved... Then there was a couple of flashes of lightning ... We stayed snow and ended dripping at 34F, but I remember the thunder snow like it was more so an homage to this affect. It was like warm season trying to crowd into the event - just symbolic thinking of course... I think it was finally pushing 70 a week later for the first profound effort to leave that year's cold season. 2017 maybe ?

That looks gaining traction and is intriguing - imho... I'm still unsure on the mid month 'warm burst' potential - the scale and degree of that. It may only be a series or rotted warm sectors ... with putrid cool backs, while the TV sees a run at 70 F...or, recent history combined with ...blah blah blah telecon spread certainly would allow for bigger balloon. After that, the GEFs and the GEPs suggest the entire NH PV slips off it's axis and winds up situated over the N archipelago of Canada... This was hinted over the last several days ...but at 300+ hours, it could just be the entropic state from all the noise of spaghetti averaging... etc. This last night, though ... it has take on real/more structure ... We'll see - The distant numerical indexes did not really reflect that look, but ... it's almost a look that fits inside a neutral field. The PNA looks so-so +, the EPO so -, the AO flat-lined. But the PV is just tilted off the axis of the typical geography, and repositions on our side of the hemisphere, by just enough. interesting...

00z ICON with CCB snows … hey it’s something.

18z GFS is trying ...sooo close. It's already got an ALB-CON (~) axis in 4 ...maybe 6"... pretty good frontogenic sig, too, so some banding in that swath probably. I think, also, we're battling that aspect I mentioned this morning, re the background pattern might also be attempting to pull the rug out from under matters, too. The trough keeps getting more positively tilted, and "squeezed" from W-> <-E as well. The ridge is the west is also getting more progressive on each run - probably atoning for the compression... Anyway, this may actually be an avenue to getting some snow into the SNE, too, if this flattens out a little more. We'd trade a lot of intensity off for a cold solution. So you end up with oversold 3-5" deal - but that's 3-5" of fun before the Valentine's Day massacre change ( maybe..) sets in. The other notion surrounds the models tending to rush in pattern modulations so...we could see this tip back - not implausible. I dunno... I sense many of us have fatigue at this point. I can mention clad reasons for optimism, and have at times as of late ... crickets. I can mention in equal proportion, reasons to dread and that seems to follow a fervor of statements LOL. .. I get it. I'm objective about this though. Learning to compartmentalize hopes dreams wants and inspirations from aspects of reality, that inevitability dash those in seemingly perfect proportion to exact the sorest butt imaginable, is probably the greatest of all my unsung talents... haha

I think he meant snow ... ? I thought Boston got a couple inches -no? First of all, what is considered 'futility'? If it is zero snow at all, that's going to be next to impossible when by policy a flurry under a busted open virga CU counts as a trace. If it is short seasonal totals, ...what qualifies. I think anything under 20" does. But I suppose that's just getting into subjectivity. I'm sitting at 18" ( give or take an inch) for the season, and I consider this futile - to date. Much of the snow that has happened is aggregated < 3" occurrences - in other words, nearly meaningless impact. A winter with so low if not no impact from winter weather ( and mere cold doesn't count), is - to me - by definition a futile trip.

Hm -14 F was my bottom temperature during that day and half cold blast, registered around 5:15 am yesterday morning. It is now 49. That is a 63 pt temperature recovery in < 36 hours. You know, I could see this spring hosting another big correction. Some kind of unusually nasty back door event. Late on March 31, 1997, ended an astounding early, historic heat burst throughout much of New England, when a potent BD front brought shock and awe. It was 91 F at 3pm on the UML Weather Lab station monitor, while CAR, ME was reporting 40 KT NE gusts with temperatures in the 30s - not exact numbers but close to it... I've waxed nostalgia over that event before. Needless to say, ... it was 38 F by the next morning on that same monitor under slate gray pall sky out the windows. We know BDs can do it going in that direction... I can imagine a nasty BD air mass with 38 F in Boston in early April, while it's 74 at ALB and 88 at PIT. ...Maybe not the next day, but the day after, it's 89 at Logan with flags waving offshore. There's been notable corrections going in both directions. I've also spun history regarding the late January 1994 day up in Lowell, when a cutter low through the eastern Lakes corrected a dawn reading of 9 F ( 9!) all the way to 62 F with southerly gales, within the same 12 hour span of time. Steam billows rolled off snow banks and piles like Kelvin Hemholt clouds over a mountain range. Not sure which scenario was more impressive, this one, or the March 31 BD in '97. So... looks like the head scratching might come to an end. The D8 + cinema from all deterministic guidance, is finally coming around to the overwhelming telecon aspects. I would not be surprised if a 2017 type warm burst may be trying to formulate out there. For now...not as is. But the background scaffolding is highly convergent in the prognostics. +AO/+NAO/-PNA/MJO in superposition with the longer term Nina climatology/recent decadal precedence for warm bursting in Feb/Mar/Apr... I could see the following D10 synoptic aspect getting more impressive in future guidance cycles.

EPS was the most use for winter enthusiasts... GEFs and GEPs, ... not so much. And of these two, the GEPs vs the EPS may as well be modeling a different year - 0 likeness within the Lakes - M/A - NE triangulum. None as far as I can see. Longer op ed ... That, in itself, is unusually highly dispersed even considering it is a cross guidance comparison. They don't "have to" be the same, and typically there'll be some variance, but at D7 ...the weight of the entire ensemble cluster of each "tends" to at least present that they are f'ing modeling on the same planet when it comes to that range. But this... ...is definitely a bit unusual for an entire modeling system comparison to be that diametric. I'm sure it's happened before, but as someone who is fairly diligent in checking/comparing all three, GEFs, GEPs, and EPS... I can say with confidence this is pushing it. The GEFs is just about exactly between these extremes. Anyway, enough of that... The bottom line, this is a scenario next week plagued by two issues, simultaneously: 1 .. Difficult trough handling due to varying degrees of model-self-imposed destructive interference; we can see that with the lead wave vs the aft wave. The Euro cluster puts more mechanically conserved weight on the aft. At the other ends... the GEPs put almost none there, and uses the front side wave almost entirely. Again, the GEFs really looks evenly split. 2 .. I suspect pattern change is also throwing a non-linear ( unseen) disruption with model performance. Folks may not like it - or if they are human, they may even have breached the ''nough is a 'nough' threshold and may even embrace it. I don't know...but all this could go away after this particular threat if the long term global scaled telecons drop the other shoe. That "might" be trying to assert as we head through the next 7 days... It's like trying to finish a building when the scaffolding is changing. In practical terms... the EPS has a better performance record in the late mid/early extended range. Don't quote that.. it is just based on my anecdotal observation in comparing over the years when needed. It's not a hugely better, but edges. The above solution variance ...heh, just a weee bit more than edging difference, though. That's going to be an interesting contest this time. Not sure with the GEFs vs, any longer, as NCEP is "ensemble" ( puns are free!) line releasing new versions of the deterministic, it seems, every 18 months. I don't know if that effects any of the individual members? I don't think so - don't see why they'd need to do that. At a 101 perspective, the intent there is to offer dispersed solutions. Anyway, I wanna say the GEFs may be edging the EPS a little more these days, anyway, jjust because I know first hand that the GEFs went west with the Buffalo Bomb back in Dec before the EPS did. That was kind of an important specter to f-up, huh. It's like remembering a really amazing tasting meal ... except for that fly's wing you found in the sauce. You don't tend forgot such details ... The 12z to 00z EPS was a solid trend in the right direction, with spatial (location) showing exceptional continuity between those two cycles. Also, while deepening ( in the means) the surface pressure. That's like powdered 'construction of coastal', just add water ( ...well, "snow" would be preferred). But as you can see above ...it is situating the low in the climate wheel-house for much of the area. The only draw down in this illustration is that the 850 mb is challenged for cold air... that pesky metric at this range/product typically used. The 00z run/mean cuts the 0c isotherm from just N of HFD to just S of BOS ..with +1 over N CT/RI SE zones... and -1 up to the NH border. That's a marginal atmosphere by definition - weak thermal gradient + or - 0C

Heh. three 0Z models … three different evolutions entirely.

All you need is just a little more cold and that 0Z GFS coastal’s snow.

Presentation overall is here: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d18edd685e8d46dfba1d16c7673cc9b8