Typhoon Tip

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking? ...is Philly in contention for this..?? If so, no ... this is a gradient contingent scenario, compressed along a relatively narrow corridor .... like I said, 'probably' within 150 miles N/S of roughly I-90/Mohawk Trail/SNE/CNE/NNE

For now I'd say that is higher ice to IP ratio/result ... from there up to the Pike and down the Pike length... but tuck getting under way mid day Thursday - if it is even identifiable at that time, probably makes the eastern end of the Pike more IP/pixie dusty.

At this range and considering the recency/complexion of the various persistence' in the guidance ( cross analysis, too), the the risk associated with this somewhat protracted event is situated along I-90 in NYS through roughly RUT-PWM for snow, where astride this region along the south by some 200 miles ( give or take) there's likely to be a gradient of IP, ICE, then cold rain. Snow amounts look to be 6-8" with more in favored elevations/cold ratio loading ...and/or impossible to predetermine meso banding - which I feel there may be some in this latter aspect. This is an overrunning scenario, with a powerful left exit/lateral to entrance jet structure associated with the main short wave mechanics...torpedoing by N of an intensely defined low level polar boundary. That boundary is likely to be very intense at elevation, up the warm boundary slope, where it is then encounters an evacuating circumstance. This will enhance lift around (likely...) some frontogenic structures/very narrow. I wouldn't venture a precise idea on the width of the snowing region of this total event, but would suggest it is not spread out all over hell's creation in size. IP vs ICE and where? Firstly, a cold thrust/"tuck" showed up yesterday at finite analysis of a lot of guidance ( Thurs afternoon...). That is/was built into our climate, and given the general synopsis as it has existed in the guidance for days ( really...), the possibility is/was assumed in this particular scenario. The models outright showed that happening and still are. There is an antecedent building +PP over western QUE that's put there by PV confluent against the southern ridge wall - that is a large scale scaffolding that is physically connected(able) to the smaller scales. These finite lower tropospheric features in the guidance are thus less likely merely noise, given that totality. Trying to establish some confidence in that actually taking place, because it matters greatly on who gets affected by IP vs ICE vs cold rain across the region of southern NYS tier, to S of ~ rt 2 along N Mass. I personally believe these above cold implications are too overwhelming to ignore - and frankly...I would not bother down playing them in this case, unless the short term on this corrects abundantly N. I don't believe this latter adjustment is very likey, however, ...because this overall 'needle thread' longitudinal event is being "locked" into a position guided by the PV press against the -PNA/La Nina persistent/circulation base state. I suspect this is why we are seeing such a persistent signal for this overall event, it's got the deterministic advantage of competing titanic forces, which by virtue of their size ...command a lot of physical proxy on the flow set...etc. Basically it's a higher confidence total event. The details will be ironed out during the next 4 or so days.. .but I feel pretty confident this needs its separate evaluation window at this time. Special considerations ... - QPF may be a bit of a challenge particularly S of the snow transition to IP axis. The excessively thermally compressed overall nature of this in the N-S, combined with the idea that 'lift' may in fact move off of that mix axis, means that precipitation could ( not saying it will...) end up shredding and become more intermittent in nature from lower growth. In fact, ....IP could relax to pixie dust between rt 2 and the Pike, should the suspected cold acceleration arrive under a ceiling where the lift has moved off. This is just a possibility... Lots of potential for cold wedging here, with equally 700 mb push over top may set up more prolific fall rates in the snow growth areas of the soundings in Central NE axis. - the trailing 'main low pressure' may offer a burst of heaving returns as the system is exiting.

No shit ... who woulda thunk

Looks like the mid lvls ticked warmer but the llvs ticked colder.

What a mess on this run in the interior

Reiterating … … the whole hemisphere en masse is tweaking S, mainly wrt the PV. Been monitoring that. Every time it does … the depictions have moved with it.

Kev' if you really are buckin' for an ice storm, you wanna probably halt the suppression in the models now. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up more snow down to the Pike to be totally honest. It could. Again, as I outlined the other day, the greatest sensitivity in where the conduit axis for this mess sets up is along the interface between two dominant forces: -PNA/La Nina base; PV anomaly in Canada. That hasn't changed,.. but there are very small incremental S adjustments going on with the wholesale PV position ...thus that axis goes with it. That, and the fact the the models will not be able to likely resolve the BL cold by several tens of miles up to 100 or so, ...all told, you probably want this to stop now or we could milk sun and bitter cold PF to Dryslot, with snow ALB BOS and IP in NYC. Having said all that... PV repositions N by subtlety, this lifts back N summarily.

Not sure if anyone caught this ...it's fairly tedious but I still paused when I saw the GFS, at this range of 138 hours ( 12z ), dropped Nashua's 2-meter temperature from 31 ... all the way to 19 F between 18z (1pm) and 00z ( 7pm) Thursday. That's a like tuck jet on steroids. I bet that would whip flags and come in like a BD white noise.

wouldn't it be fun if it ended up down here and y'allz tokin' on cirrus bongs ?

yeah... let's get greedy ... hahahaha j/k

I'd be careful with that interpretation if I were you... I wrote about this in an earlier post, warning of that allusion to finally having the S-SE warm wall in abeyance but it would not in fact - or might not I should say... - actually be that way. It's just compressed to where it looks like the right configuration. But the large number of isohypsotic gradient and the associated base-line wind is a trade off between the ridge structure, replaced by velocity. The ridge is conserved that way ... It's insidiously hidden. But it is an interference pattern. I remember a -NAO like that in 2007 late Feb or early Mar.. ex Heh, near the end of Eastern's reign ... There was all this excitement and optimism for the NAO arrival and it showed up ... all we got was 4 days of gusty gelid knuckle achin' cold winds

Maybe a two pulsed ordeal. The first, the 23rd, wraps up early on the 24th ... then clears and gets windy with falling temps through dark. It's possible there would be WWA and/or WSW zones in activation while there is a Watch posted for the 26th, which starts late on the 25th.

Euro sends another ( the 26th one) right on the heels. Like 24 hour window between it and the predecessor 23rd ...which really doesn't completely wrap up until the 24th. It's interesting because the wind tries to turn S just before, but the turn around between systems is outpacing that the ability to warm by so much, it ends up just the same sort for gradient snow/mix/ice/cold rain - very similar looking actually.

wow... I was just checking out the 2-meter ( GFS) for Thurs afternoon as the TT depiction has it... 18z has 31 at ~ ASH... 00z? 19 ! zomb

I've heard the year 2018 bandied about ... I recall that year as being like that. We had huge -NAO in the midriff up there, and the modeled behavior was retro toward eastern Canada. We heralded it in with a big nor-easter in early March that was cat paws or cold rain... Really infuriating system. It was the one where collectively, the entire Met community knew about the ( at the time ) bias of the GFS for BL wet bulb thermodynamics... How that got through beta and released into operation was always a dog of a head scratch but it was what it was... So, it had a mid range, 38/29 QPF of 3" rain storm, and many of us thought it was going to be end up a blue bomb 33/33... assuming it wasn't properly saturating - which is wasn't. It was modeled replete with a comma head, CCB everything. Nope. 37/37 rain. I mean... wtf!? The GFS got to be wrong while still boning us... how d'ya do that? wow. The retro wasn't why the GFS bias screwed us... But the storm took a weird track.. it collapsed SE as it left into the Atlantic. I think that played a role, because it didn't allow for more cold to entrain into the circulation.. It was all good.. because less than a week later we were tracking a the real deal blue and I'm pretty sure the NAO was in fact starting to normalize a bit by then...

Improving...

mm... I know we've been over this so often the earth is now packed into concrete but I really don't want a big west based elephant ass. Not accusing you of doing so, but the jest tends to ensue a following of posts where people love the big 500 mb magenta, chart edging blob over D. Straight and I cannot underscore enough, that is not really what you want if you want ... E19 ( see above post)... Particularly if the -PNA/ southern warm wall isn't going away - which I don't suspect it is... It's anchored by 3 years of Nina momentum and more intangible angst than Sleepy Hollow. In fact, if the elephant sits on our trampoline height field, it may look like the southern warm wall is in abeyance but that would be an allusion - a lie betrayed by the fact that the wind between Denver and NS will be 120 kts as a base state velocity. It's trading altitude for speed... destructive interference Wrong... no E19 for you, ONE YEAR!

well... circumstantially, that would be true, ...but I'm speaking of 'farmer john's standard correction' for modeling at 120+hr range. I have not seen any graphics that out right compare empirical results to model prognostic values, relative to any time leads... but, anecdotally, I get a very strong impression that the error tends to increase in the ^ amts, farther out in time. I've been jokingly referring to this as 'model magnification' I think of it as when an system first appears at the outer boundary of the model distant times... it's like the moon coming over the horizon on the clear dusty summer evening. It's the size of a pie pan... - fun metaphor. But I think it's because the models don't "see" or detect the physical offsetting destructive interference minutia that are inevitably going to materialize, due to the fact that ultimately ...they don't really predict the future. Those emergent offsets cannot be predetermined - until the human brain trust finally does figure out how quantum mechanics identifies future events... But by then? they'll be controlling that space and along with it, how those events unfolds. Technologies like "the Weather Modification Net" ... and this sort of speculation will have long been a thing of the past. Rain and snow and temperature variance all happening by a carefully prescribed dosing by the technology. No more interesting anything - ... sign me up! Excluding that wild science fiction digression... what the models are left with in the D6 on range is a like 'purified' emergence that isn't being held back by "reality" at those time ranges.

Seems like you're standing in line sneak 'n' txting ... It may be tedious to mention still at 120+ range, but both the GFS and GGEM were a deg or two colder in the llv/wedging air mass. I also - personally - find it hard to believe that a 1030+mb robust +PP situated over W QUE, already dammed into the region prior to arrival of WAA burst ..., will ever yield at the sfc. It may be one of those scenarios where the lift escapes and runs off the region exposing a llv 900 to sfc icy layer. Skies brighten... but don't really clear. Rad looks like the warm front must've made it all the way to RUT-PWM or so... but it's really down along the L.I. S or even south of there. In general, I see two aspects evolving this week: 1 ... more suppression ( how much or little notwithstanding). 2 ... lower overall verification over present QPF ( again, how much or little - ).

Trying..

Spaced that close together in time, amid a ripping velocity saturated shear pattern? Nope - ...can't call those "storms" There's not enough time for all required synoptic parametric ingredients to situate in between. In fact, that kind of minuscule temporal-spacial layout is more indicative of how a fast large scale pattern type is intrinsically a negative interference against any embedded smaller scale disturbances (where/how 'storms' form).. Anyway, the former is just semantics rant ( haha) where because those would be physically challenged/limited in what they can be, 'minoring events' is more apropos. When we say "threat" and "storm" at any passing dent in the curvature of the field, and ( likely...) merely a magnified result perpetrated by the modeling cinema out in time..., then, bounce adjectives of the like back in forth in the colloquialism of the group physics, the group synoptic impression ends up stranded up a on a ledge where the only way down to reality is at 9.8 m/s-squared!

Yeah they just installed their sensor yesterday.

Sunday nape factor of 9

Ha 'cept, I don't think anyone remotely cogent has proclaimed aspects as looking encouragingly snowy, or whatever. What was said by many is that patterning may improve - folks tend to do that... They hit hyper drive on that kind of thing, then it turns into a d-drip let down when the 'odds' don't play out. And it's annoying too, because they construct their memories around that accelerated interpretation.. Anyway, the pattern this next week is actually horrible for snow. It is... Let's get that straight. What we have, or is modeled rather ..., is a PV anomaly setting over top said horrible pattern. That changes the landscape a little, and what we're seeing in the operational runs is tug-o-war along the axis between those two titanic forces. Subtle oscillations N or S scaffolds where confluence will build sfc high... as well as guide alone where that wind torpedo rides over the ridge... Typically we don't really talk snow when a S/W curves west of ORD ...rides along the border, then cuts ESE through central NE - that's the S/W trajectory in the means wrt to late next week... It's all about where the slope of cold wedge ends up in the lower troposphere... Very precarious. Yeah...that is a giant hunk of shit pattern actually... It just happens to be one that is setting up a polished option... Probably? it's more like to be an IP/ice event with a narrow stripe of snow astride... But, I also wonder if the S/W is also going to start showing up weaker in future guidance - the old magnification correction.