Typhoon Tip

Folks should to consider the PNA as having E/W biases - particularly as it then forces the PNAP response. The 1980s had a lot of seasons between '85 and '90 where the PNA --> PNAP had the ridge slightly too far E in the means. Hence the Cape decade... with lots of dry cold waves. This year...it's been west when it's materialized ... I'd even argue that if it goes west far enough it starts eventually reflecting/leaning the index more negative ... but that's an artifact of a fixed domain space, then moving objects around within it. A "true" -PNA really should not have a positive height anomaly rattling around the east Pacific while merely overlapping the west coast - I almost think that circumstance, one we've seen a lot of this year ( and likely doomed the Xmas event to the Buffalo transit ) should be codified as a separate index significance somehow, but that's venturing - Sometimes a neutral PNA is really like a positive PNA that is just biased W...

I don't believe the PV slipping off axis and rotating down into the Canadian N is being modulated by the MJO to begin with. There's little use - imho - in drafting causation from the trop Pac dispersion model. The advent of the Marine sub-continental wave propagation over the last 10 days is merely a strong presentation of a wave even, one that was in constructive interference during 3-6, wrt to the La Nina couple based state. If anything the PV behavior in the models is actually in an anti-corrlated state with phase 3-6 ... Now that it is rounding the RMM, the models are detecting the destructive interference of said couple base state, and the wave is summarily - just like all predecessors all year... - not likely to penetrate the 7/8 spacial region, where it actually would be a better correlation for the present modeled PV behavior.... This chain of unlikely correlated events, happening anyway..., doesn't altogether argue that the MJO is really got proxy over the hemisphere.

I've been analyzing it over the last week ... It is apparently down-welling in the prognostics of the GFS *courtesy CPCs strat/trop monitoring division. Most crucial factor in assessing it's ability to modulate the mode of the AO, is that downward propagation behavior... 2006 -0.170 -0.156 -1.604(March) 0.138 In this case... the modulation times for early March, assuming an initiation/timing last week? I'm not entirely certain when this particular event got going... The recent temperature monitoring suggests its not even behaving so much like an actual "SUDDEN" event. There's a node that is rotating around PV high stratospheric altitude for over 2 weeks... It almost appears like this is attempting to reach a critical mass loading and then just ends up forcing it's way down that way... I mean, the science of how these works gets the idealized model, but there's probably flavors and hybrid mechanics in reality and not all these events necessarily have to run along according to that idealize behavior...

I'm buckin for a 70 tomorrow.. heh. seriously though, the numbers on the NAM grid would support a positive bust over machine guidance ( MOS MET and the MAV for that matter ) at sites like KBED/KFIT/KASH... up our way. Unless your wind veers more S, can't imagine it's cooler down there.. But it has +12C at 900 mb the last several cycles between 18z and sunset tomorrow, with 700 and 500 mb RH fields < 50%... Light west wind... I mean these parameters assert warmer than most 2-meter products post Feb 10 sun intensity, and I like the challenge that happens at this time of year, where it's predictable both that the MOS coverage will lag ...but, human interpolation appears to not have testicles big enough to put up on their graphics... I'd even call 68 at KFIT to KASH a relative win in this regard... We'll see

that was intended as pissy sarcasm... it's rectal glue that said, hi res vis sat has clearing punching east pretty fast out of NY. may be a huge diurnal change today? seems both the climb out of the diurnal well, plus a synoptic change sweeping through during the morning might combine for a lot of deg change. we'll see. it always seems in this god forsaken cold anus hole region of the country like the worst of any shit air finds a way compress right against a warm boundary...

really soothing and beautiful out there this morning

I didn’t think the 18z was that bad anyway. You all just got more nerve than a bum tooth these days. Was less than perfect… ? fine. Uh this is still just a signal and as far as signals go that’s you’re putting a bunch of baroclinic action right through a signal- that’s all you can expect from now. By the way 18z Nam is also 70 over metro west of Boston on Thursday regardless of whatever the 2 m says those parametrics combined with a post February 10 sun is going to soar. West wind open sky 11 Celsius at 900 mbar with low dewpoints and no snow pack. Pretty sure that would be historic numbers a little bit more meaningfully than 58 we put up last week

In the near term … that 18z NAM would tickle 70 on Thursday over downtown crossings and parking lots over eastern mass well west of marine kisses

we laugh but yeah, the thought's crossed the mind - it's not a bad take Ryan.

Euro's gonna lag toward the 24th but it's got the signal big time in the 12z run. I still argue given the accelerating velocity footprint over the hemisphere ...that's liable to quicken pace in future guidance. It's also got a sneaky emphasis being placed on the 21st ... Haven't honestly been paying too close attention to these foreground "shrapnel" ejections in the stream, for actual production - but it's putting some emphasis on that D7 thing ... which I know you and I were keen on that feature as a table setter..etc.... more for the 23/24th

..time of the year... It'll do this on day's of this likeness until early August this goes back to 1990s MOS really - as far as I'm aware. Every sunny day that ever existed, where there wasn't a -million SD CAA raging ... ends up above machine numbers. What and why-for that is, ...prooobably has to do with climate normalization, particularly with MAV ext ... But I'm not sure, because the MEX seems to do the same thing, as does the MAV, a mere day's lead, whence there is almost 0 tickery. Brian may no something about the tech as he and I have mentioned in the past.

well I mention it only because it may need the attention later in the week

Just about exactly where I am in this John Trending in favor but not leaning in just yet. I do feel - agreement with Will - that this has a somewhat different appeal at this point comparing predecessor 'failure's; getting this to augment into deeper cold look, is going in the opposite direction when crossing through the D10's "event horizon" ... it's been a very tricky, unsuccessful time range this season. I mentioned this risk to you in text I believe later Sunday night - the GEFs individual members were 2/3rds in on 'some' kind of risk over eastern mid lat / N/A, though they varied on 'what' that would be. Part of the reason for that - I feel - is related to the sub-index nature of this signal. It's not really tied to a major modal d(index) - this is almost purely driven by antecedent quasi -EPO in a mass field conflict with persistent RNI signal running by underneath. Folks, don't aspect this out as a Miller B or anything like that - though not impossible...This is open wave/duration snow/ice, cold rain layout N-S *IF*IF*IF* and where critical D7 -ish ambient polar boundary lays down... It's all more likely to be that kind of structure - perhaps a nod to that 2015 Feb event for reference...

GEFS at 120-144 ... see cold loading across southern Canada/Lakes --> NE is inevitable in that look. If we're setting tables that's your white cloth -

Lol ... some of you don't exactly demonstrate a willingness to operate within the confines of personal restraint. I'm seeing a lot of 'huge finish as we thought' this, and 'all kinds of chances now through March' that. That didn't take long! It's like you entered a rehabilitation clinic for a 90 day court order tactile treatment ... passed the screening, and summarily upon release, drove 90 mph to a crack house ... Even if those notions are just in jest, ... just sayn' As far as the D8-11 period - imho - we are still just talking about a signal. There's some subtle attempt at convergence upon an event, but ... it's quite vague. The Euro and GGEM want it closer to D10. The GFS ...suggestion races matters along, and is flatter and weaker around D8.5 through 9. While all the while, these are solutions that are new - in other words, no continuity is established yet...etc... Well, that's not entirely fair for the GFS... it's been carrying an idea better. If I were taking an early guess at 'extended' model performance, they seem to all be operating slaved to their own bias types. The Euro and especially the GGEM tend to end up with more curvature in the field beyond D7 as a general rule. That probably ...or could, I should say, atone for their slower deeper solutions. The GFS on the other hand, tends to a progressive vibe that grows out in time, such that the wave mechanics get stretched and ultimately interfered with - even if only small fractions. All models have a lot of gradient setting up N-S from higher to lower latitudes across the continent in the D6-12 range... so, timing and ultimately intensity/..placement.. .yikes. Beyond that 12 days ( or so...) I wouldn't even step foot into the casino on this one. Good luck. The longer term planetary cues have us doing a 1976 escape this year. In fact, the only reason I can see why we haven't done some kind of attribution scientist's fantasy escape already, is really all coming down to the quasi ( almost non-descript) -EPO forcing that may not even be coherently evident on the charts. But the end result of Canadian cold loading tends to betray that influence... If not for that one ?saving? grace, imho we'd have crockus and forsythias coming to life already.

Yes... I was honestly a little worried about this correcting faster. The window for open skies was narrow and precariously timed to begin with, and the local hemisphere's a bit faster at the baseline. Probably need to start thinking about leaning on the front side of spacial-temporal placement where even dependable event tacking in the D5-7 ( assuming we get that far before the white-board effect ... ) tend to end up earlier.... In the meantime, warmth is in general the most fragile of all aspects and seldom does a narrow window for it, survive the larger numbers of model runs - and now we have a 12 hour wind from 6 days out in a faster atmosphere? -right We'll see...

I’ve been watching that with the same idea

anyway...jokes aside... still a signal lurks now D8.5 to 9.5 ish... so, it's actually survived the 10 day event horizon. Solutions vary.. The 12z Euro now has it too - so even something like cross-guidance support from the deterministic version. The trick is getting that cross g support when it is 3 days away, not f'ing 9... but we'll see. 18z GFS has 2015 redux... about 30 straight hours of moderate snow in cold

Not at seasonal scales unfortunately...

GEFs extended mean is alleviating the negative PNA ...but only rises to -.5 or so, into the 2nd week of March. Via Weatherbell. The 'control' run ( code for George stroking his goatee while he pushes a drift switch in demonic laughter ...) has the PNA spiking madly to +2 SD for 3 days before falling back neutral negative way out there... Probably the synoptic version has an 1888 at the apex, I'm guessing but I'm waiting on an email from George before confirming we're gonna die in a blizzard... If it's any help.

If they succeed in the first half of that... don't ask me how I know but the 2nd half of that fails

Mm case in point ..the 12z GFS' D9 ..10 although the NAO may not be negative per se. Essentially works out to the same rub. I mean I don't have a boat load of confidence in actually getting a wintry profiled ordeal in that time frame, but ...there is a multi-member presentation in the GEFs - whether the scatter is spread out all over hell's creation or not. That's par for the course for 'sub index'. I don’t have anything else as far as I can see… It’s all we got as we sit next to what could be winter’s death bed if things don’t break Not that anyone asked... I'm sort of in my typical seasonal ambivalence with regard to personal druthers that I experience in mid Febs. In one sense, I feel we were jilted by ...something this winter, pretty badly, and are 'owed' in a crazy sense of it. ha! But, we are also out of the solar minimum and one can actually feel that difference. The sun's setting a little later and don't look now, but it's light still at 5:20 pm ... These latter senses start my nostalgia engine for putting this misery away, dusting off and moving into the warm season.

so just to be clear ... ...the conversation tact is predicated on the -NAO assumption? I happen to believe we probably are looking at a > 50 % likeliness to observe a -NAO ... I have a few reasons that I'll gladly gloss over eyes and send readers to Advil if you'd like. I'm guessin' no though, heh Anyway, fwi not w ...the CFS has been all over the -NAO... even west basing it. In fact, some of the runs have been dreaded too hefty, like I was just describing for WW. But cross that bridge I suppose. ...assuming the > 50% gives a return on that investment. heh. Here's March 4 over at pivotal, nicely illustrated a western limb -NAO Should also review a crucial aspect in the NAO. There is quite often a fallacy that -NAO means snow. No. The index in a state of change has a weak correlation to precipitation events over eastern N/A. The PNA, on the other hand, has a strong correlation when it is in a state of change. I mean the papers can't spell it out any clearer, yet we pine around for -NAOs still, clearly as though we place way too much weight on them. Fwiw, my own experience is that a modestly negative NAO, west based, that is being cyclically perturbed ( oh... every 4 days or so..) is more typical for recreating snow potentials.

Will knows this ... but 'big blocks' are bad. I suspect he means just getting a coherency in that regard instead of hinting and/or having it be east based or situated wrong...etc. Lot of qualifications really. But a large ridge anomaly sitting over Baffin Island gets into the suppression shit. That is more maddening - to me- actually than what we've just gone through. At least what we've just gone thru we can blame on bad luck. But the compression from a big elephant ass up there, mooshing everything down? That ends up 5 below normal high temps, in constant wind driving dry air windchill nothingness, eternally. F that! for fun I call it the 'elephant sitting on a trampoline' effect. If you can imagine what that would look like. haha. Basically, stretched so tight the flow can't dent? well dents are where the storms form...and so on.

If it were me ... I might consider augmenting my approach philosophy if/when seeking any seasonal redemption or wintry event looking forward... The 'pattern' may not be much help in doing so. When referring or relying upon the GEFS or EPS or GEPs averaged wholesale structures..etc, that large scale application means attempting to connect with a index-scaled events: those that are triggered by more obviously recognizable signals. I just think for the time being ( ...next couple of weeks anyway ..), you're focus should be sub-index scaled correction scenarios. Events that "sneak" past those conventions. Case in point ... looking at the charts out there between D9 and 11 .. 12, one may not guess much is very possible or even plausible, with a compressed and very fast interference pattern... However, at the individual member level ( and deterministic solutions notwithstanding), a lot of ensemble members seem to detect enough perturbation in that elephant pattern to ignite an overrunning/ open wave situation. Despite the over-arcing panoply of planetary indexes signaling warmth and an early escape ( BD season notwithstanding...), there is a lot of cold air in Canada through the period, with a subtle tendency to split the flow just enough... The telecon detection grid for the PNA is clearly seeing the negative out there toward week 2. But ...if there is still a modest N/stream coming into occasional confluence, ..yes, even with a +AO ... the cold source would likely bear its presence down to 40 N... Heh, perhaps the only way really possible to get any kind of wintry production out of a +AO/+NAO/-PNA PHASE 3-6.5 MJO, late winter La Nina climo.. but it is what it is... We'll see... keep an eye on that range tho