Typhoon Tip

Folks may not remember but we spent a couple few days when that was some 7 days out, where the runs were plotting 970 mb lows on the Del Marva ... It really only committed to a Cleveland Super Bomb redux track until like 84 to 96 hours out... Then, as the arctic intrusion across mid latitude continent made a lot of press (that probably doesn't get remembered to well in the shadow of the enormous LE blizzard over NW PA/W NY) by the time the low pulled N into Ontario and the cold did the old under belly route, it was sort of modifying already. The cold we got was not very impressive. The cold with that weird 20 hour deal in the first week of Feb was probably the only headline we earned that entire wretched season. I cannot confirm or deny ENSO was the culprit last year ... and given the context at hand, I'm inclined to say it was only partial... etc. Just the same, I am more than happy to have finalized the divorce proceedings with that particular three years of history -

sorry, that first sentence made me laugh - it's like 'yeeeah, all that, and, it sucked anyway' I know that's not what you went on to describe in that. You know, Will, even before the ENSO questioning became so, I can remember arguing in the early days of Eastern ..some Jesus 18 years ago ?? are you f'n kidding me. I remember arguing that the polarward indices were as important for the NP-GL-NE regions of the continent. Some seasonal outlook of yesteryear, NCEP finally said, "it should be noted that the northern plains, great lakes and new england regions are prone to intraseasonal time scale variations of the polar field indices which cannot be determined at seasonal time leads," it was an hallelujah moment ... I don't really admittedly get into seasonal outlook. I suck at it. Because employing the above facets, one can be completely sound in their rational, and then something WILL happen seemingly by creepy design LOL.

Doesn't matter to me who is/was or what, it only matters going forward - I just want folks to stop engineering these seasonal forecasts based on ENSO "in a vacuum" as you so eloquently stated. But it doesn't even have to be in a vacuum, per se. I mean you know this ...but it's all weighted - in other words, how much of, can be reliant from ENSO versus - that's where the real art is going to be drawn. The new norm in seasonal forecast approach cannot be so reliant. etc etc

Plus ...spc's upgrade to slight for severe - just sayn'

Lol. I’ve been saying it for about 15 years… But yeah I’m sure others have too.

Mosquito population explosion over the last week.

Jesus Christ “AGW” is a planetary integral. UHI’s are negligible in comparative scale yeah … big cities are why there’s marine heat waves threatening to collapse the oceanic biome, why there are methane hydrate blowouts erupting through Siberian permafrost… ,state sized ice sheet calving events and measured oceanic circulation velocity shortening because of flux disruption in the thermal haline mass distribution. This may be more directed to the straw man but I grow tired of reading or hearing this from people - like the ethical scientific ambit doesn’t know the difference and must be conflating UHI effect with the whole world - got it. By the way, UHI has increased right along with CC. Just like heat waves have also increased in duration and zenith … If anything AGW is causing UHIs to grow hotter … not the other way around

Yeah right. Let’s get a PRE up here to really put this summer out of reach

It’s really bad up my way at sunset here. Sun is down to a dim orb and the surface vis isn’t more than 2 1/2 maybe 3 miles… bit of an acrid odor too

Yeah, jokes aside ...agreed the FF is still active. I think the threat is more west?

Some probability above base-line climate to emerge a heat wave d11-15

Heh... Tomorrow is a tail of failed towers - 88/68 alllllmost enough to glaciate, collapsing with five nickle -sized rain blats on the car top. Maybe some ridge topper lights up a 5 pixels, but that day really looks like a doldrum of summer day.

I was just writing about this over in the July 16 coverage - we may have an opportunity to dry out some over the next 10 days. Don't know of it's permanence ... it could be a 'relax before reload' routine. I don't see any reason why the latter would not happen. I doomed this summer ( clearly ) when I off-the-cuff wrote back in early May that this might be a +PNA summer. So yup - it's my metaphysical fault. Longer op ed, it's been unusual. There has persisted a definitive R-wave ( Rossby wave) structure that is more typically vanquished by seasonal nebularity ... by even mid June. That was so during the climate dimensions of that last several Millennia, but apparently, we've crossed unknowingly through a climate-event horizon, and in this universe ...we sustain winter pattern geometry in very high hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. I actually do - jokes aside - think this may be another of these sneaky no-one-is-paying attention emergence' that is tied to CC. The heat ridge in the west is perhaps driving this look more than the Pacific is forcing. I've seen the Pacific modulate either side of neutrality these last couple of months ... yet the features spanning the downstream continent seem to remain quasi immovable, like stones in a stream. The way it "might work' (supposition), the thermal ridge is so overwhelming that is constructively interfering with the normal topographic N/A pattern forcing - which the basal structure is a flat ridge over the Rockies. The two together becomes a constructive interference (harmonic amplitude), which isn't being countermanded enough by the Pacific, so the system feeds back and it's self-perpetuating the ridge there. But over the next 10 days... the AO is more obviously switching modes ( the NAO as well), more so than previous weeks. There are other evidence that the GLAAM may be trying to switch more positive... These indices, albeit weakly, do correlate with zonal flow ...

We may have an opportunity to dry out some over the next week to 10 days. Guidance are 'relaxing' ( Euro/GGEM) the trough reloading behavior, or, stretching it more W-E (GFS). Either version eliminates the quasi stationary warm fire hose up the coast effect. However, since in either case there is still semblances of that trough along 90 .. 80W still lingering as a shear axis, that implicates shunting of bigger heat from ever getting E of ORD. It also makes the dependability of that outlook a little shaky because if/when a reload takes place ...it's sort of all set up as to where it will be. As is though ... either solution makes rain events less impacting at a regional scale. The trouble with this summer is that we are failing to relent the R-wave structure from spring - which we normally would have by now. It's a +PNAP scaffolding (west ridge east trough) that's just apparently incapable of modulation. That may be changing over these next 10 days, but with lower confidence for now.

No big deal here in N. Middlesex Co along Rt 2 ...so far. Area buckets coming in with ave 1.75 so ... more like a just maintaining what is becoming a extraordinarily wet summer. I have two suspicions ( barring a hemispheric change) 1, we may end up with a multi-month cumulative record for rainfall. 2, we may set a dew point record - not sure of any sources where that is tracked. Also, interesting that we have dim sun with enough intensity to warm the shoulders here, despite light rain still falling/rad verified. The temp is 76 and the DP is 74. I was not expecting 'brightening' really of any kind, as per satellite ( vis ) ... really didn't/doesn't make it very clear ( pun intended ...) that the sun would be penetrating.

Well ... sufficed it is to say, no chance summer 2023 will behave like summer 2022

Was thinkin the same thing but given the sat loop/trends ...it looks like this passes off and we just stay dark and dreary. Also want to add, at an unusual elevated T/TD combination for that type of setting vs region of the country. Usually you get flood with embedded weak TVS wrapped convection/QLCS along CFs with a definitive drop in both those metrics shortly after the fropa ...etc.. .but this just goes calm Bahaman mise' science under an cloud packed sky

Oops I started a thread too over the last half hr. Either way -

Unusually large bounded region spans much of eastern PA/NY and most of NE … swept over by near/at historic PWAT air mass is modeled to be in nexus with positive sheer, while modest hgt falls along with subtle yet crucial +difluence in mid levels may yet couple to an accelerating wind max AOs 300+ mb U/A up the St Law ~ lay/lon … the total manifold of all that gives an ominous cue for me. Current guidance is pushing climate thresholds for some of these concurrent metrics which strikes me as a favorable environment for ‘synergistic’ results. In short I’m inclined to believe the higher guidance … predetermining exact locations/strike axis presents certain challenges due to inherent model limitations in predictive skill wrt convective initiation and spatial distribution/interactivity For those with access to graphics by all means. I also believe this situation may warrant at least low risk for brief or even rain-wrapped TVS

Back in the ancient days of the ETA … that model was really good at next day convective initiation … it’s progeny was the NAM

The bases of these late day towering cu look lenticular ... as though they may be tending to rotate. The tops are leaning E and with a SSE flow at the surface, there's a ton of 0-6km directional shear already in place. I think tomorrow could be interesting for EFO/EF1 type low LCL tor risk, associated with higher DP cyclonic curved height/climo. I've been off all day I don't know what folks have covered - I'm just getting caught up with the synoptic stuff. By the way... Wiz' ... you should have been to the half day conference at Meditech in Canton today. DC and Fields from NWS covered the synoptic categories for our tor risk climo in New England ( since you're apparently never going to move to Oklahoma ...). The also covered the Nov 13 recent event with the EFO/EF1 swarm from SE CT to SE MA, while it was snowing in North Adams no less... pretty interesting.

Yup ... I bitched about that precise aspect this morning too - LOL. You could tell at 7am that was timed horrifically. That said... I did get an impressive t-storm here around noon. .9" in 20 min with a ton of lightning.

As expected ...DPs higher aft of that complex that rolled through earlier

Lots of thunder here and very dark as this cluster's nearly upon us... But these are short duration rumbles, indicative of short range discharges - elevated/vil work. The sky looks that way, too. Has an overrunning texture/wave form out ahead. I was just checking DPs aft of this thing and from roughly SW CT down the coast they are elevated into the mid 70s. These observations lend to this being along a quasi warm front and at minimum the nose of a theta-e ridge.