Typhoon Tip

Yeah, so far this appears to be a "standard" sort of wind event - fitting into climatology for these southerly Dec gales. GRR's obs site density isn't too bad, https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=grr Not sure if these are "official" per se, but they are carried by NWS so -

Until they realized it was a Really Really F*n Shitty Ass model idea

Same here yet still nary a flood

Nothing rip and reads holiday glee like pixel showers that look like Bahama June bullets on radar

This winter has looked like crap for years

Could this denude the precious fragile young bases right off the mountains

Oh, but it’s completely normal in an El Niño December

Only when tagging on the circumstance gets so miserable it becomes funnier to impugn than it does the prospect of ‘eternal’ waiting Not all of us actually covet the bullshit we post. Haha

It all depends on the lapse rates. - the wind field off the deck is reasonably confident. The ability to mix down? That is rarely so in our climatology for a myriad of limitations. So you kind have to begin there and start adding offsets as they are implicated by modeling. Knee jerk shrugging it’s not happening in eye rolling doubt is not one of those offsets.

Day after xmas and this exact same storm yet again... what is this, ths 4th iteration of this ?

Kevin trying to get his NWS product interpretation past an actual NWS Meteorologist … …priceless

It’s like that in the Nam down here over Logan

Mm sudden stress for warming events take place as late as March 1

Makes perfect sense… American institutions were under attack for four years by that administration and then when the pandemic came around, they didn’t have appropriations and mental fuckin resources around to adjudicate the science properly.

Heh … I think you mean ‘feels and vibes are Trump science’ The continuity between the 0z and 12Z is maybe 15% at best. I don’t personally think the operation run has any more chance of verifying - day 6 to 10 range. I still think it’s funny to point out the piece of shitness that it is.

Too bad, the operational model looks like the worst stench of dung imaginable

We could have sneaky severe potential in Connecticut, Massachusetts tomorrow I think. I mentioned it the other day in the other thread with those warm hydrostats punching up into the area, and the actual surface trough istill west of the area that can be interesting with all that mid upper level jet mechanics going on.

The FOUS numbers are tamed by 4 or 5 kts. LGA went from 41 to 33, actually ...

Looks like it adjusted the track E some.

The old school FOUS grid keeps warming the T1 level temperature. This 18z run did so again and also drives 562 hydrostats to LGA-BOS. Instability may become more instrumental for this system as those numbers reflect a more barotropic sounding - ie not as protected by smeared warm frontal inversion like is typical. Cleaner momentum in the Z coordinate … There’s a wind bomb with our address on it - who knows if this system is the delivery but this wind signal is more impressive to me at least per these coarse synoptic indicators.

Hey Will, ha! I just got done head scratching about the lack of injects into the domain between the 23rd and 28th and then this 18z GFS comes out... Not saying these are producing - haven't even looked at the corresponding surface but this and like this is numerically supported prior to the 28th. So we'll see. From this range it's more important to see activity that syncs with signals.

Agreed ... I've posted about the 28-31st part of that time range over the last couple of days. The thing is, from a pure numeric value something could emerge between the 23rd and 28th but damn if the models refuse to actual inject anything into the domain during that time frame. Almost of a head scratch given the degree of the d(PNA), really. I'm willing to not bitch about it though because I'm seeing an oddly split hemisphere, with a 'relaxed' flow +PNA tendency happening beneath a frenzied higher latitude fast energetic polar jet and the two are seldom in sync... I believe the lower latitude mass-field distribution is modulating the PNA more so than the higher lat neg interference so causing a miss-leading layout.

Thought the Euro looked impressive. 925 mb wind of 70kts arriving normal to the south coast

That's one ugly series of dailies between D6 and 10 on that run. ho man -

Philosophy aside ... I suspect that this weirdly fast hemisphere is related to CC having an impact on the base-line geostrophic mean velocities. There have recently been papers published. They indirectly if not directly corroborate what we've ( well...certainly I - ) have been at least anecdotally observing about the pattern behaviors over the past 10 years. I think in more practical terms, it is having an impact of "pattern dependency" in deterministic (forecasting) efforts. Particularly in the mid and extended ranges; ironically, where there should be less "expectation" for stability, ha. But ... it's been worse than that.