Typhoon Tip

It seems like this is happening to0 close to the objectively observed/realized loss of the -ONI during this mid spring ... which was teetering on ending since mid or late January really, but suddenly accelerated to neutral rather recently... And it wasn't merely the SSTs associated with the ONI .. but the total evaluation considers the thermocline and other llv wind etc etc. It's hard the relay between the -ONI to this weird spike has been silently extraordinary. It almost as a 'rebound' phenomenon

More like correction pecker the way this spring is with these models. jeezus NAM -based machine guidance now 70+ at BDL, FIT, ASH, and BED ... so yeah, with the over arching synoptics through the period, the "vector" would be pointed at warmer - but we're not going crazy with that assessment, either. ... Like the old 2 or may 3 F higher than machine - typical in the front side of the solar max (May to late June) for machine to error by small values on the cool side, on days of high sun over top zip CAA.

This weekend is a light, d-slope flow of "prime-able" air because it doens't have CAA integrating the trajectory. So it'll all come down to sunshine. Yeah..that's why I elaborated about not knowing how accurate the typical ceiling height RH handling is - agreed. If the sun gets pig piled it's 65. But it's such a huge factor at this time of year. If/when CAA is not in the region, the sun up temp can be capped by clouds a linger into the afternoon, and it gets sunny at circa 2pm and you burst for 10 from that alone. LOL... it's not exactly a riveting topic, the different between 64 and 74 ... no. BUT, the intangible I'm monitoring is the 'jolt' ... spending in a week in the dungeon with the Labradorian "gimp" and then transitioning all at once are interesting phenomenon to me.

edit previous, actually MEX is 70 or higher now so ... might be some correction getting in closer

I'd give it Friday, too but agreed in principle. Saturday ... both the 2-meter product suites from the GFS and Euro look a tad too conservative with d-slope flow. 850's raise to +5C by 4-6pm, indicative of mixing having been successful above 925mb... after roaring sun much of the day... Yet, they're capping in that 66-69 range? I suspect the actualized 2-meter temperatures should be 72 to 74. This is true for Sunday ... and perhaps Monday as well, but there may be a BD in the area that day. The question is, does the sun hammer? The RH at the typical ceiling heights is generally at or less than 50% but I'm not sure how accurate those RH levels are in the guidance. Either way... the synopsis favors drying the column with the deep layer flow bumping over the cordillera from the NW, and then en mass, having to then go d-slope, most importantly...a behavior that sans CAA while that is happening. I noticed the on-camera mets were hanging temps in the mid to upper 60s yesterday when running mill at the gym... Seems they're lifting numbers off machine. Some conditioning do to recent drab/cool unrelenting may be temping folks to be conservative.

It's not even subjectively debatable... It's ben 5 to 7 days of crud - period. Now..tomorrow we nadir. Than, Friday... modest improvement. Saturday flushes out the last of the cool pool as it hangs over the region at 12z that morning, but soars during the day to + 5 ...7 C , on a d-slope deep layer trajectory and zip ceiling level RH ( which is code for big sun), and that day mid afternoon will be like stepping through a portal to another universe compared to this cold rain and elevation wet snow we have been actually measuring in real data over the last week...

"...To warm the entire planet takes an extraordinary amount of extra energy. Recent research shows we've added the energy of 25 billion nuclear bombs to the Earth system in just the last 50 years ... ... But almost all of this energy to date has been taken up by the oceans. It's no wonder we're seeing rapid warming in our oceans..." Just a few turn of phrase in an interesting perspective summary written here, https://phys.org/news/2023-05-trillion-tons-greenhouse-gases-billion.html

I have an idea that Thursday might sneak pepper some proper anvil height activity around, as this p.o.s. circulation mutes to just being a residual shearing mid level cold pool by then, but we are warming beneath via more sun penetration. Friday too - not a big deal, but BL will destabilize more than guidance shows if we get better near solar max sun intensity before noons...

It's interesting looking over hi res vis loops... These convective explosions are actually capping below the cirrus altitudes. Looks like more of those altostratus layer anvil types we saw yesterday. ---- 'low confidence' hypothesis: with all this onshore flow ( E, N of BOS latitude, and SE over the Bite Waters) we are plagued with, might this be an environmental ( lagged) feed-back to upping SSTs for mid and late summers around the horn... ---- Telecon spread still favors, at minumum, a relaxation of this shit ... I'd call that a crucial staged improvement ... if for our own sanity alone LOL. No but, the La Nina "firewall" (inhibition) is pretty much dead... That's critical in the analysis that the present powerful Marine sub-continental MJO presentation may actually have some success in dispersion/ R-wave modulation across the Pacific and eventually into the western Hemisphere. The trick is, ...that term "eventually" It is not clear if the [apparent] lack of coherency in doing so, to date, is merely because we are in the lag window... i.e., perhaps the physical forcing isn't getting into the framework quite proficiently enough. When/if it does ... somewhat of a wholesale correction washes over the guidance. Or, the relaxation discussed above, maybe that is all we get from it? It is possible that a synoptic warm burst is embedded in that May ~ 10 to 20th time frame... if not a more obvious warmer look than what we are seeing now, too. SO there's that....

Word.

If I were a curious god … Just for shits and giggles, I’d expose the entire region inside WI-NC-E QUE to the power of 10 suns … … sit back with popcorn and a coke and watch this planetary scaled turd of cyclonic stench, which clearly has developed its own deviant sentience at this point ( think tied up in shack by serial rapist …) try and survive against a yato yato yato -scaled thermal deluge

Imagine it 44 F by day … 40 by night, with winds gusting to 48 mph in driving rain that mixes with sleet over interior elevations, lasting for two days. When exits … the temp doesn’t change. Drizzle under deep murk persists … three days later. The Nor’easter reduxes, undistinguished … followed by a nearly identical total cycle of reprieve to redux event. Unrelenting … for three weeks. No exceptions That was three weeks in May, 2005. Compared to that … we just “suffered” a relative utopia

Weekend still looks dandy ... In fact, the Euro's lowered typical cloud height RH levels even further. Both it and the GFS depicted unilateral flow from 925 to 300 mb levels on a NW trajectory, bumping over the terrain and down-sloped throughout all areas, with 925 mb between +10 and 12C. 2-meter's would likely make 20 to 23C under that provided the sun works out. As is in the Euro, borderline but would likely be 80% sun with the down slope drying. So in every day terms ... 72 to 74. Winds are very light, too.

And with that, we've brought you the severe weather season in New England ... Please join us again next year at this time, when we'll behold ... the skull knock riveting debate over the difference between pea -sized hail and grapple

Same here ... peas along side some excessive rain rates... only lasted 4 minutes. Single rumble of thunder...

bb = "Base Ball" sized hail ??!!!!! holy shit

There's still hope, though. Mid month, based on signals emanating out of the Pacific/tropical dispersion stuff. I mean if that's your bag. I don't personally want it "hot" - who does... But folks should bear in mind, we had a signal similar to that a month ago, at the beginning of April ... And we ended up popping the 90 cherry two days back-to-back at some sites. That was more of a 'synoptic heat burst' but ...they tend to nest in warming signals span of time. That's a bit different than a wholesale warm pattern look, though. The deal at mid month isn't fantasy - whether it emerges will come down to whether there are other forces compensating ..blah blah blah... At minimum ... it seems that this weekend is like graduating seasonal change to the next level. We can certainly have days crumbled in this 55F cyclonic rubble ... all summer long in this POS summer climate up here. But sans spanning a whole week, and just lowering frequency of this kind of shit seems to want to begin this weekend.

We'll see... I'd be happy for this outlook effort just to be consistently albeit modestly above normal. That's not really even subjectively 'furnace' but I suppose it's up to the user.. heh. Furnace is a heat wave now that we're into May. If the mid latitude telecons start to reflect this Pac dispersion shit than we might have the conversation. We also have to be leery of another a 'synoptic heat burst' ... which is different than a wholesale pattern change and can happen in somewhat isolation.

Here you go, Kev' Starting to see semblances of the western/tropical Pacific forcing. I've been discussing it for the past week while in wait of this type of model depiction. "Should" see more of this essence emerge. Former Pac forcing is a legit powerful observed factor, and I've been suspecting that it's just not yet ( to date) been very well sampled - therefore ... not ingesting into the initialization framework for the global guidance sources. But, we see now Phase 3--> 4 is occurring and I don't think this solution below is a merely coincidence. It is in fact, right on schedule. Like I said... the 2nd week of May - that's the way I'm still leaning for now. Which isn't that far away so.

we could carry that attitude every New England April/spring for that matter -

So this weekend looks like a top 20 ... maybe top 10. More so Sunday, but both days have a shot. 850s rise to +5 C and low RH at typical cloud heights (ie, mainly sun) in May no less ... will undoubtedly send realized 2-meter Ts above machine guidance. Near 70 Sat and in the 70s Sun. Light wind. Predicated on the notion that things don't change between now and then, of course.

Not the place for it ... but a quick comment on the Bruins. I frankly thought they were in trouble back whence they split the first 2 games at home to allow 1-1 going back south. mm... that didn't sit well with me. I lowered my expectations at that point in time. Admittedly ... there was optimistic when they got a 3-1 lead. But then I was summarily checked out, feeling as though the whole thing was just as predictable - we knew... as the 2004 ALCS debacle. Same exact sensation - we knew it was over when the Bruins lost game 5 ... Wasn't going to matter what the win/loss record was at the time. The rest was academic. So.. being psycho-babble prepared as I was, I wasn't terribly offended or even a little bit surprised by last night's destiny.

Yeah it's not me necessarily either. As in not my credit. I was reading this whole thing about how they create these ecological islands of starvation for a lot of species that are already in trouble because of climate change -related population destabilization. From flowering species to pollenating insects, flora and fauna. So I guess the new thing is rock gardens with flowering plant types interspersed ... The focus wasn't the fertilization chemistry so much, but fertilizer is a whole nother problem. Yup. The era of Roundup is basically archaic and actually just dumb in any generation. I suppose it all stands to reason. I mean when we peer over an untouched wilderness scape, we don't see that look for a reason. Diversity = health in the ecology.

Look at that 1980s standardized ecologically toxic lawn... lol - been reading about how bad those are for the environment. Interesting

They're probably just gnats ... Populous seemed to start referring to general gnat nuisance as black flies some 20 years ago and it's not always the case. There are a lot of black flies, too ... but there are bigger populations of different gnats. Those swarms that make little personally owned clouds that follow you around behind your head when your walking in spring and early summer are likely other gnat species. They like sometimes rattle around the orifice of your ear opening? Could be a black fly, but its just as likely harmless albeit annoying gnats. What I hate are those dear fly that do blood recons in dive bombing mobius loops