Typhoon Tip

PNA is falling

well okay, but it feels below normal and it is below normal just the same.

and the hits just keep on comin' https://phys.org/news/2024-03-climate-australia-soil-emit-global.html

yeah, I don't offer criticisms, because I do not engage in the 'Game Of Seasonal Throwns' I only offer some thoughts ...circa mid Sep to mid Novies to others. Take it or leave it. Like I was saying in the La Nina thread the other day... I mentioned this the last 3 autumns to the general pop. I believe pretty strongly that the usefulness of the ENSO historic climate/inference method as primary in the construction of seasonal outlooks, is a mistake now. This is not a criticism of any particularly individual - because I am not sure who said what, or employed how much of it. I don't read these discussions, frankly. If someone reference something, I may read an excerpt amount.. but that's hardly a fair intake. However, seeing close to 500 -page El Nino threads ... mmm, sort of lends itself. I think there must be people that do lean on ENSO. I also believe that doing so was more useful prior to the naughts of 2000. It's like if there were a hypothetical 'usefulness graph,' it would be sloping downward. It's something I begin posting about over 15 years ago... probably prior to Eastern's collapse. I specifically recall supposition way, way back then ... writing words to the affect of, 'If the world around the tropics is heating up, the tropics are no longer able to force the same way' Usually when doing so, the sentiment was met with crickets. We're not exactly proffering scientific posits to a formal conference audience in this social media engagement, are we. LOL. Evidence is leaning toward vindication of those earlier insights. The incidences of uncoupling, transient lengths of time, notwithstanding, ...it's all part of that. Plus, the scalar impacts of these El Nino and La Ninas over the last 15 years have been less acute in statistics. anyway

well said

https://phys.org/news/2024-03-antarctic-sea-ice-historic-lows.html

Agree this overall sentiment. ...altho, I don't engage in the winter stuff in 'late summer' ( ha ) but yeah. By this time? I really start checking out every year around Feb 20th, actually - by that date we're already 10 days post the end of the solar nadir and into the solar transition season. One could argue that is really the first zygote of spring... Not March 1. Not March 21st. February 10, because that is the celestial mechanics-dictated date whence the hemisphere solar irradiance watts/sqr-m, inflects toward positive more steeply. The opposite is true on November 9th, whence the beginning of the solar minimum/bottom out takes place. That's why I like the rare front-loaded winter. Takes advantage of the igloo day-light when the snows are falling. Real gelid, not that transient stuff you have to think about it while its snowing; on Feb 20 seasonal change is screwing with the splendor of it all. The models might even be tapping the 60 deg butt cervix the next week. Obviously there is a significant climate lag every year ( or at least used to be. Ha ). It takes time for the whole planetary system to respond to brightening(dimming) at either end. That's why I say I merely "start" to check out. lol. The total check-out process take about 2 to 3 weeks. By the 2nd week of March, I'm getting pretty indifferent ... Don't hate the late snow rareness'. Don't love 'em. Post the equinox? I'm entering the spectrum of annoyed. I hate this weather right now. There is almost nothing redeeming about this. And frankly ...if it snowed 6" of blue toilet cake snow on Friday, there is 0 d-drip value to that. I realize others don't share in this sentiment but ... there are some of us that do.

06z GEFs mean came back a little ... Yesterday's guidance may have been the typical mid range teaser interval... I'll give it this 12z. This is probably too tedious for the level of interest at this point... but it almost appears to me like the whole modeled hemisphere has two behaviors taking place at the same time. The shortening of the spring wave lengths is attempting to happen at the same time the modeled atmosphere is still accelerating in the mid range. Troughs are sharper ... some even closing/'bowlers' yet ... the models are speeding them up from D7 --> D4. Friday's doing what they were doing all year ( and previous year's worth of seasons for that matter, too - ) and that is to speed up the late mid range as it gets nearer. This speeding up takes something away from the N-S range of amplitude - I'm pretty sure this is why-for the attenuation thing, in general. Either the system in question is weaker, or it just is faster so it's impact is weaker - either way. Very consistent modeling error.

...The only problem is the previous 20 consecutive days were above normal, a lot of which were large. The whole month is still +5.7 This is essentially the same at HFD.

In a relative sense this is an interesting achievement. I haven't seen 5 consecutive days of negative departures in a long time ORH 21 34 23 29 -7 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 20.4 37 280 M M 1 54 290 22 37 21 29 -7 36 0 0.01 T M 8.2 20 290 M M 5 29 300 23 35 28 32 -4 33 0 1.99 0.0 M 12.8 28 330 M M 10 126 43 320 24 37 21 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.6 25 330 M M 1 41 330 25 42 26 34 -3 31 0 0.00 0.0 M 12.6 20 60 M M 0 32 30

looks like the GFS is comin' on back to reality

Let's pray NWS is right

yeah I know. I was just Joshin'

yeah... 2018+ 6 more year's worth of what's clearly a whiplash CC surge = glop bombs falling off of tree limbs

oh... heh. I'm like, "I don't something -" or -

'idv' ?

Not sure of the significance when weighting into this particular model conflict today, but the Euro was also 'whiffy' with the last event and didn't conceded until it was 3 or 4 days out - fwiw

All these storms in spring probably bear some likeness to one another ... but a while ago I posted a juxtaposition of the 500 mb April 1997 library/NCEP chart against the 500 mb of this morning's GFS operational just for shits and giggles - there's definitely some similarity there, though

I haven't been altogether blown away by the west Pac warm pool stuff, either. I've sort of let that conversation go as just a passive observer. I am not sure why warmth there has more meaning than warmth in the PDO ... or AMO or the ENSO... The oceans are markedly warm, everywhere, above climo - save for pockets here and there that are proven more transient. Ex, the La Nina 'cool' phases are warmer than the La Nina cool phase baselines from 100 years ago. The El Ninos are also warmer relative to modern vs older climate generations. This has to be true, because ... it cannot be logically true when utilizing a moving/adjusted climate baseline to then have the same base temperature at either end. Crude example, say a modest cool ENSO may even be similar to a modest warm ENSO 150 years ago... The wholesale planet warms together is what this looks more like... so how we aver (much less really convincingly guess) one area as being so much forcing over others is sort of dubious to me.

It never did ... ... and the perp guilty of trying to woo over the audience like they're that cutting edge objective intellectual stew at a Trump rally, most likely gets a kick out of the attempt - folks should just ignore it.

I was jokin' around with Scott an hour ago but that April 3 system's also got some remarkable continuity on the models, too. fir f' sake if we coulda got this kind of look once in the last 7 year's worth of winters -

I think there's marginal accessible to the cyclone, but the 850 mb partial thickness is cold enough that dynamic height falls together ... that's a blue bomb incarnate. I was just hinted at that with the GGEM example - By the way, by 'blue bomb' we don't necessarily mean the storm "bombs" ... but that it's just goes poof and the air is suddenly low vis blue tinted out the window like a pillow full of cotton ball sized aggregates exploded. But the snow at the end looks blue tinted when your shoveling it - it's higher water content spring (autumn) snow types.

mmm that GGEM model is clearly ( and typically ... ) too warm below the 850 mb at this D5'ish range given what's going on around that thing. It's early enough in the spring that an 850 mb layout like this is going to be 1/4" vis aggregates shattering in the wind if this (blw) happens.

ha... just went back some 10 clicks on Trop Titty bits and other than very minor differences that are obviously below any threshold of meaning anything to outcomes ... the GFS has been non-deviating on that general idea above. Just sayn'