Typhoon Tip

I get this this thinking ...but for me, it's like one color off the pallet of ways the AO could effect the circulation mode at mid latitudes. The issue I have is that the AO is an annular domain space. Which means that it's in situ modes may or may not force amid any given region around the hemisphere. Case in point, the big +AO --> -AO flip in Jan 2007. For the first two weeks of that avalanche phase change ( like +5 to -3 SD in a week!), all the cold offloaded into Eurasia and east across that continent. It's just a word of caution for all as we move into an "iffy" causal relationship with the "SSW" ( which upon reviewing that more closely, I'm not sure we really saw downward propagation phenomenon... but whatever -). -AOs don't always homogeneously distribute their payloads/forcing on jets follow.

show shower snow storm... interesting. bursty. Dust, then 5 minute intervals of changing aggregate sizes here this morning and scanning rad ... 'can see why. Looks like that'll characterize the day. It's a certainly winter appealed out there. Closing in a 2" now. 29F

Haaaa HAhahahahahahahaaaa ... Methuen

The detailing of the 06z GFS from what I'm seeing has more switch back to moderate snow after IP, just prior to ending... N of the Pike in the interior. It's a nuance observation at this range, but I also notice a subtle E reposition over prior runs wrt the primary over NE Ohio. The secondary in the Bite region off the N Jersey coast is also slightly more identifiable by 96 hours (comparing...). It's tedious differences ... but shows there's some spacing sensitivity there. Should the wave mechanics adjust a total trajectory just a little S, that secondary may take off and that would change the map a little as far how far that IP/ZR mess intrudes into the region... Or, the entire run suite's full of shit. Also should not forget what may be the most important leitmotif of 2022-2023 winter, either: soring of the butts

Personally unsure re the Euro ... It's inside of D4 when over the Arklatex position with the deep tropospheric wave space, which is pretty good performance window for that particular guidance - yet the GFS and GGEM are, albeit minuscule, perhaps crucially weaker during, and more importantly... after leaving that region. Weaker at the trough's best amplitude point, means less coherency when it's headlong trajectory ultimately meets Mike Tyson's -NAO fist. Thus ... I also lean toward applying at least some measure of conserved approach to all guidance. Take whatever the "super blend" is right now, and assume we get some destructive interference, just in deference to the fact that we are in a leitmotif pattern of sending these kinematics headlong into the same manifold of delimiters that caused the present system headaches. So there's two uncertainties to iron out: - how much needs to be conserved post this trough nadir near the Arklatex; - how much exertion also after that time, from outside. All the overnight ens means and their deterministic flagships demoed more west limb -NAO burst emerging ... . You can see backing elements in the synoptic cinema NE of Maine, prior to that onset of the high latitude ridging. It's always interesting when that happens. It's because the exertion in the field already starts; systems will begin to respond prior the ridge manifesting. It's complex .. Anyway, the short version is that this next one in line may advance toward more in the way of inhibition when nearing the 90W/40N ~ area, if the -NAO idiosyncrasy verifies. Ugh...

Rad density completely deteriorated overnight ... really gave the allusion to running into a wall of subsidence, certainly an attenuation of lift either way. Gee wonder where that source may have come from - It seems outside of a smaller region of SW zones ... it is interesting that every model went more prolific in the end game, yet this reality is right back to really sub Advisory - so far ... No sense laboring/echoing others any further. Largely a bust around this region, with an inch and occasional very light aggregate periods during dust.

Seems like it’s sneaking a comeback

Yeah, I was just gonna say this is the first event all year…. all.effing.year that didn’t go the wrong direction inside of 36 hours.

Yikes! between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... ...after 3-5" of snow

I think there may be a bit of an oversell on the BL warming potential ... suspect maybe at Logan itself, but the west side of the city...draw a line down to NE RI and I don't have as much issue E of that imaginary line... West of there probably has more NNE or NE, and this cold is loaded enough clear up that it's not going anywhere if you ask me - which you didn't.. just sayn'

My old standard, the FOUS grid... , has Logan winds ENE as 20 sustained... DPs in the interior all the up into Quebec are in the teens and I don't see where that's changing before we start dumping into that. I suspect density in the interior may encourage a bit of CF or perhaps impression of one. That may matter because where that sets up, I feel it then moves SE over the course.

George01 probably feels it is unfair for you to use 'blizzard' in context when he gets targeted for social destruction whenever he does ... hahahaha No, but I see where you are coming from. Echoing my earlier sentiments, I'm a bigger fan for post cold loading --> block relaxation windows in general. When I map that potential ( as is emergent now...) over top my own methodology ...I see March 11-12-13, but the 10th is certainly doable/adjustable at this range. Sure -

standard 32km version also nearly an inch of melted over eastern zones. pretty much reverses the advisory vs warning layout... heh. jeez

these exact circumstances fed in 20 years ago would be worse -

sssh... know what'd be funny? the secondary develops more than thought and the east gets most in now-cast

Working from home today ... F'cker and Spaz are on, and apparently ... MLB is implementing a pitch clock? I'll watch games either way because I like baseball - but it would make that a lot more enjoyable for many if they weren't 4 hours of cup adjusting bat masturbation vs actually putting the ball in play ... It's not just the pitchers. The hitters contribute to the total slow down cycle... they both have to get it done faster now. I think it'll make the product funner -

I still see issues with both, but they're not the same. ex, the GFS has a subtle progressive/speed shearing bias. contrasting, the Euro tries for to expand ridging to a bit too earnestly through the mid range... These aren't completely obvious to anyone given a single run, but it's just something one might notice if they pour over a lot of cycles over extended periods - which no hobbyist in here every does that, huh ....haha kidding but yea

Helping advect in some cold would be a help for winter enthusiasts, yup - if that were to be that much more evolved as it's exiting.

HO man... hahaha... 'Magine if that happened? 10 -20" followed by 3r/4th. Here's the deal. I'm at 24.5" on the season. If I were get 7" (may be a stretch ...feel better about that much down by you) ...I'm over 30. 4" of Advisory on the 2nd is say 35" ... uh oh! Don't look now but the GFS is too far NW and we get 17" out of the 4th and we're staring down the barrel of a -EPO mid March with a relaxing NAO ... hm Above average seasonal snow fall would just be some incredibly delicious frosting, icing over a particularly rancid dogshit cake of a season. HAHAHA And it's not like that pattern canvas looks anything like this ...what? with a negative anomaly tucked SW like that. heh

Oh I do.. In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that. Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day -

Know what's gonna happen? this thing is going to 15 inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s watch LOL

wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th. I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that in unfortunately still true: two events of similar handling, inside a the same governing pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior. So, any modeling errors in handling the predecessor ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating. That's just logic. I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus. But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this.

Think of that as jostling around inside a region bounded by a confluence/domain wall you can almost make out there nearing the top right corner of this slide show. It's not going to get more N, with that there. What you're seeing in this comparison is jostling within that allowed region.. But it is pressing the NW-N edge of the available space inside that bounded area. IF some how for some reason the confluence orientation goes away, than the guidance will have no compunctions about driving this thing straight across James Bay from S to N... But that's would be unlikely, because it would require completely changing the manifold of the local hemispheric circulation mode.

His looping image starts on D 9 and runs out a 3 or so days... It's more about a specific period to watch for something- it may not characterize the whole 1-15 perod of time. March is a fickle beast as we know... I mean, it could be +8 on average and still nest a blue nugget across the time range. As to the 1-10 per se... not sure the surface/lower troposphere N of ~ 40 N sees what those 500 mb isohypses anomaly products look like.

yup... we're struggling to find a consensus here - but there is some sense of really getting an event. Heh...gotta start somewhere. But that's the take away so far... we'll see where things go.