Typhoon Tip

Ha ha ... lol, just got done wondering if the HAFS-A and B were better solutions for the time being.

I almost wanna do a surf chase ... I haven't done that in years. Not really there for the storm itself, but just to ogle coastal impact.

I kind of like these recent runs by these HAFS-A and "B Aligning track that's a compromise, they bend back but also ...weakening dramatically - as they should - for passing N of the G-string out there and spending some 250 naut miles over mid 60s SSTs. They still bring a 975-ish low somewhere N or NE off the outer arm of the Cape, but filling pretty quickly, the wind field is probably not really being experienced very much more than 5 miles inland - and considering the stable land air source being pulled in, it's lifting a lot of that edge moment off the deck at the beaches themselves. something like that... This thing's bigger more obvious discussion headline really should be about the 20 ft curling bombs with white foam momentum running up and over shore roads. Maybe even foisting a boulder or two up onto the street. (taking liberty with description here)

Mid upper level vortex appears to be rotating at a disproportionately slower speed than the llv. I'm wondering if by some small but perhaps crucial amount, this thing's low to mid level structure is modestly uncoupled.

Don't disagree in general. The 'stress' of (shear+ EWR)/2 results in functional citizen that still has PTSD triggers. LOL. Anyway ... I have almost never seen a hurricane achieve the same wind max post a EWR, regardless of particular case stresses. They are almost always slightly to more obviously not as deep in the pressure well, while also slightly to more obviously weaker with wind fields. But here is the interesting thing - they are not "weaker" cyclones. By spreading their cyclostrophic energy over a broader area, post EWR, they actually have the same or even greater ISE. There's a physical reason for that, which can be explained in relatively simple terminology. The EWR is a way to spread the gradient out in all directions. If a hurricane reaches a deep well in the atmosphere at a small to mid-sized t-cyclone, this can become too intensely unbalanced against the ambient atmospheric pressure surrounding the storm. The centrifugal force that 'opens up the eye' is overwhelmed. But the ongoing storm's momentum/mechanics are conserved ... so a resolution to this problem is the EWR. By widening the eye, no longer exceeds some critical ratio of surrounding pressure medium with respect to the core - and the circulation stabilizes at a larger size - lower wind velocity, around a larger circumference achieves the same ISE ( or even more) but is 'balanced' against the surrounding storm medium. So it is a bit technical ... but I tried to tone it down. So, ...this is where your shear showed up. It sort of intervened at that critical vulnerable time. The storm got larger, but the core disruption can't find the post EWR stable attributes because it's partially uncoupled within the total circulation manifold - this part is a bit more suppositional. Doesn't mean Lee won't 'reconnect' and fall back in love... ( 115 is a better relationship than I've ever found!) But it's moving slow. I wonder what the thermocline is in that region and if it can whirl around at 110 mph forever without it up chucking colder water and choking in its own vomit.

06z Euro looked to have bumped E a little

The issue with the Euro isn't really hugely bad model performance - or that which is perceived to be before the fact, ha. It is that we are hyper focused on very small variance in position, because that actually matters (this is a philosophy/reality post). A 200 mi shift E vs W is the difference between partly sunny with a gust to 25 or 30 mph from the N along the beaches, ...upwelling cold water and ending the swimming season, vs lashing the eastern zones with sustained 38 and gusts perhaps to storm force, and possibly also becoming a primed flood risk as far back west as ORH-CON. However, this is still D4.5 ... so, 200 mi of error at D5 is actually 'better' than the performance target by NHC themselves. So, calling out the Euro as a big piece of useless shit and saying 'what's happened to the fallen' angel and whatever is an over-application of fault finding due to the former. People want two aspects: accuracy now (that can't really be assured), and elation at the possibility as it is illustrated in the model runs. They are very good at sniffing out 'false illustrations,' but that is no different than a NARCAN rescue arguing with the life saver for ruining their high. So they trash the model ... There should be real evaluation that isn't too excoriating at this range - not yet. If the Euro persists with this solution and shorter than 72 hours, and then fails... then it becomes a matter for more rational analysis as to what went wrong.

Heh... right. But my previous was really an attempt at 'seasonal symbolism' ... The point of 1938 antecedence is like that year was Russian sort of roulette. They clicked the trigger one too many times. Maybe we're doing something similar this year. I recall we've discussed at a couple points along the way, this propensity to reload the +PNAP ( not necessarily the same as the "PNA"). At a very foundation level ... that tendency is perhaps a precursor. I was just looking at a chart someone has posted in the Climate Change forum that described the summer temperature departures and no surprising, This nicely reflects expectation for/when having a +PNAP reloading summer. Like, gee - where's the trough, Waldo. Meanwhile, the modest warmth along the East Coast and New England is more indicative of ... well, what we are observing right now: we are on the E side of that circulation mode and we are stuck in a 'sultry wet summer'.

Oh I know. I wonder what the return rate is on a dessert coastal country getting 20” of rain

‘Catastrophic’ flooding hits Libya as dam collapse washes neighborhoods into sea, say officials … thousands feared dead… Attribution science’ll have a field day out of that one … tho admittedly, Libya being a desert region does send a moment of pause

I hope in the winter we get a shield of exotic inches/hr snow that just crawls it’s way

I seem to recall reading once years ago how the 2 weeks before 1938 was described as ‘unusually wet and sultry’ Now granted, sultry is rarher outmoded as a word usage in present culture … But I believe having so many persistent dewpoint days over 70° with daily run-ins with flood warnings and stuff qualifies as similar to that same turn the phrase

I’ve never seen so many days with DPs 70+ in September

CC

Until the 18z got that memo …

I was kinda hoping we'd stall an arc of 48 dbz tropical mode rain right through a region with +300% of the seasonal budget already in the Earth ... just sort of have it sitting there blithely twitching away for hours and hours...

I was just wondering what the rain totals there would be After the summer we've had ... ? dumpster boats

It brings it in here but doing so in an unlikely to verify synopsis - tossed

that evolution looks unlikely ... just sayn' -

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-life-threatening-events-world.html "The model showed more places experiencing heat events that would not be considered survivable under the wet bulb test as the planet grows warmer. A global increase of 2°C, for example, would result in 25% more places experiencing such events. Those increases, the model showed, would sometimes be in places not accustomed to such heat, such as parts of the East Coast and Midwest in the U.S., and in central Europe. "

Getting close to that time of the tropical season where I start hearing that voice in my head begging to just get past this p.o.s. journey and make it winter already. LOL

Ho man... 'cane enthusiasts can't win. The next one by the GFS looks to get even more agonizingly close yet still missing -

mm. I know what your getting at but there's probably dubious morality there, too -

I posted about this subject matter in the tropical thread ... but, if this transitions the western semi-circle winds will lift off the deck and it won't be very memorable.

Regardless of any wind/rain aspects ... the primary draw in terms of this thing's entertainment value may be the surf/beach erosion.