Typhoon Tip

was that witnessed by unaided eye, though? ... with camera tech the way it is, and pervasive these days, ... these auroras are photoed by way of timed exposures, that are then rendered to Twitter and other social media platforms under the auspices of, 'look what I saw last night' - leaving the part out that they could not have "seen" anything without these devices. I rarely see a disclaimer or any comment at all really that says, 'I am not actually worthy of the center of attention I'm seeking, because I could not have seen this without high tech assistance' lol. No but these long exposures can "see" auroras that glancing at the nocturnal firmament alone more commonly cannot detect.

Tomorrow looks sneaky gem like.

The giggedy range of the GFS with a continental heat dome forming ... I think in this case, however, we should watch for that sort of emergence in general as we head toward D12 and beyond, based on long lead perceived telecon modes. The ONI is offering less resistance to tropical forcing with the waning La Nina, which there is such a forcing that appears to replace this current ...whatever the f this is... I know what it is though - we're suffering a blocking hang over from eastern N/A and Asian early heat dispersion into higher latitudes ... but anyway. When this wanes out there is an actual wave signature emerging in the RMM correlating to heat, and without very many offsets it may couple to the R-wave momentum giving to a quasi- standing wave over N/A ... Speculative, but I personally wouldn't be shocked if early heat balloons E of 110 W

Going back well over a decade... I've been noting a remarkably tight correlation between space weather activity, and New England's inability to ever see them due to terrestrial weather interference.

I guess it depends on what sector your in - in other words, any lag may be below the regional scale ... Up here we are if anything ahead by ~ a week, so close to climo. And with the addition of today's water we'll be about on target for hyrdo too. What we are is way above normal in temperature. So, putting all that together and dividing by N terms ... doesn't really scream a belated spring for the Mohawk Trail/Rt 2 crowd.

That sounds like the genesis of a new narrative -

I'm surprised there isn't even a rudimentary sort of flood statement down here. Gray ME office has a statement ...

I kind of like the lower bandwidth rad NWS is switching to - or 'back' to... Looks similar but not exactly like the product they had prior to the 'pretty much no radar worth using era at all' they just sent us through over the last couple of years... Not sure why, but the "enhanced" product is not really as good from a user experience - for me anyway. It may be all primitive, as part of an ongoing longer term product evolution/plan. But I have an iphone, couple of laptops with Celeron tech, and a home PC with quad, 2.51 GZ processor core. Yet, using any of these, the term 'enhanced' would not be the adjective I would use to describe the user experience. I think the bigger problem is both the navigation response, as well as frame load times. Both are frustrating ... even on these latter conventional technology platforms.

no no. Tomorrow is a$$ ... today is just smells like the a$$, tomorrow ... SNE's collective head is rammed up in the rectum

It's unlikely ... I mean not that you need to be told that. From a telecon perspective the pattern nadirs then, however. The presently evolving -NAO ( west limb) is by then collapsing, as the +PNA renders to an amplified +PNAP maximum. That timing of those particular major mass field indicators is cyclogen correlated. Specific to the deep layer synoptics, it's dubious...with a 983 mb low escaping over the BM and a new 980 mb out of no where popping off back west like that... It is indicative of a weak baroclinic physics in the lower levels, while pure mid level forcing. The thermal setting is marginal ...but marginal ( as in +- 0C at 850) at the end of April doesn't typically cut it. We'd need more substantial anomaly ... say -2 or -3C, and down into the 925 mb levels by that late in the year. The Euro has a bit of curvature bias at that range, too. That is a D7+ Euro cyclogen look to it. Nevertheless, the GEFs and EPS members have some deeper members cluster around the DM to BM give or take some longitude ... That's about it for now. My guess is > 50% odds it won't look like that on the next run.

Get's hot in May... we just have to stick it out the next 10 days

It's completely clear W-S of here now. This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

Yeah, #MeToo ... The April casting couch has hand cuffs when it comes to escaping the influence of BDs That curved pressure pattern bulging in from the E through early tomorrow ( ahead of the main baro-c axis) probably keeps SE flow in the lowest levels. Game over for warm fronts... The best bet is to be so far on the N-E side of boundary that we clear out from that subsidence. ...Sometimes the exclusion pattern really hits home when you see a clear sky coming in from the wrong direction... haha. Anyway, not sure that's even doable. I think today is an interior gem and then folks should plan on a bit of 'rhea for several days. I am noticing though that the models are attempting alleviation from the drear on the 00z solution spread. It's mostly in the deterministic solutions, tho.. The Euro and GGEM were actually improved over prior runs for D7-10. Hopefully that has legs.

Hi everyone ... ...I'm interesting in establishing an ongoing discussion, ranging from disciplined research to general aspects involving environment. It could/would encompass the total manifold that exists under the general rubric of "anthropomorphic pollution" . This is a weather -based social media platform, so it may not be entirely appropriate in the strictest sense ... However, merely starting the thread in Off-Topic lounge probably doesn't get noticed? Aside, OT is really evolved to be purposed for other uses - to put in kindly ... There's not much purpose in attempting much there. It is not entirely disconnected. Atmospheric aerosols that contribute to soil acidification - as just one example ... - are also connected to climate due to atmospheric microphysics and radiation budgeting... etc.

Of the two … the GFS last 2 runs are worse imo.

sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ... but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely. then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen. i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

Ode to spring's anus ...

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-devastating-greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets.html

Machine numbers seem a bit blunted for tomorrow. 67 at FIT under full sun, with all of 8 kts of near variable breeze and +6 ave between 925 and 850mb... Should be about 75 there.

Folks may want to try and enjoy these next two days of sun ...with at least relative warmth today, more so tomorrow, yup. 'cause after that, you're muzzles are strapped to the April shit stuffing machine for the next 10 days. We may actually get chilly and drab as the 850 mb temps are rising later Friday with that pressure pattern. GGEM's buckin' for a blue baby out there in the last week of the month. And frankly, Euro and GFS merely miss a cold pocket timed with an overall 500 mb evolution that would, too, if not for chance. Unlikely to work out ...but the alternative is deeply dreary, either way. Not that you or anyone asked, I suspect May is different this year than recent springs tho. The last 4 ( folks may recall ) have been orchard stresser chilly at times, at other times ... weird thermal profiles that are almost hard to explain. Like 534 hydrostatic heights with temps up to 72 F, and high based dessert CB's That was a really weird under the radar climate change thing going on while civility carried on unaware, but won't go there... heh. Anyway, I think there may be another synoptic warm burst out there before any real summer pattern gets established. And doing one of those as we are entering the perennial solar maximum (~May 8) would be a different party than doing so March or early April. Makes sense... '87 April event followed a week layer by 90. LOL. I'd love to see that, tho. I wonder if that's ever happened, that extreme of a wholesale turn around spanning lesser time. It seems big correction happening all over the world with increased frequency.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/asia/asia-heat-records-intl-hnk/index.html

yup... not just modeled though, it was conceptually explained how/why these blocking suppressed jet deals happen after 'synoptic warm bursts' - It's why I'm not particularly grousing or feeling put out by it because I've had a week to psycho babble prepare. That and the incontrovertible fact that this region of planet is empirically the biggest piece of shit place to live ... on the planet, during this time of the year - that should be built into expectation.

Forsythias are doing okay here ... Big maples ( non Norwalk ) buds are bigger than I recall them being comparing recent years. We may actually get maple flowers from them this time - which are wonderfully aromatic, albeit only tingingly so. I mean it doesn't hit you like Lilacs ( say ) but they do cast off of sweet air. ..which unfortunately means a half foot of helicopter seeds in the fall... but it's all good - Lawns and field green-up complete. There are even dandy lions here and there. Must shrubs are opened and yup... even the Oaks buds are looking anxious. Last weeks' 90 F haha... yeah. Just hope these recent operational trends to normalize the 'cold pattern' have legitimacy. It's been bad for recent orchard crops - I believe ? - with recent springs having late blocking ...

It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. Why that is happening? I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind. I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer. It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring. The only time that I recall this phenomenon not taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger. The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar. So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring. The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems -

I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality. So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place.