Typhoon Tip

Agreed ...the Euro began a lean into a better fitted solution for the erstwhile telecon behavior - but also the observed mass field/synoptic evolution during the period - about 5 days ago at this point. Just wanna add for the general reader. I suspect the GFS may not do as well in a warm ENSO hemisphere *IF* the longer term correlation of tending to meridian flow types/coupling transpires. The La Nina was perhaps its recent hay-day during times when the hemisphere was more coupled.

acceptance of the world as both changing, BUT changing in a direction that will continue to erode on winters ... might go some distance in amelioration. Like the Buddha teachings inform, ... all anxiety is ultimately rooted in failure to realize expectation - from what I gather, that is... Even if that butchers that philosophy at its core, that's 'sides the point. There are kernels of usefulness for this engagement/hobby of seeking dopamine tied to weather modeling HAHAHA. Cut the expectation of actually getting a hit off the crack pipe in the first place -

Is this a self-soothing remediation effort ? LOL j/k

November is the first month of the year that I consider a negative temperature result as wasteful when/if there are not interesting events. It just not as ugly as doing so in D/J/F/M. altho to be fair, there was that light event last week in the interior. still, overall kind of thumbs down.

ha, was just looking at that. or something like it... I was noticing that we are not far in that depiction from setting up a multi day ENE flow through that polar air. we may end up with shopping flakes

Did the IOD collapse ?

Wait until quantum drive technology powers the weather automation grid. Wont be modeling anything

I suspect two things are true at the same time, and they are competing.. 1 ..the models are vastly improved over where they were 30 years ago. Now ...that may have slowed down in recency ( last decade or so), sure... but they are still more powerful for computing speed and density of sample/grid intake --> physical processing than ever before. We need to just accept that. And they are not 'doing something different' while they are at it ? People seem to hint they are 'suspicious' or something. I'm like, yeah...of what? 2 Speculative ..the patterns of cold season hemispheres is different than it was 20 years ago. It just is... be it CC or not (related), the observed patterns enter into inherently poorer predictive states by breaking down at faster rates. Wave propagation mechanics are having tougher time in a continuity because the proverbial rug gets pulled out from under the pattern scaffolding so quickly. So what's going on is that we are with improved technological capacity that is just being stressed to the point where they can't perform as well as if these model advances were to have been set into practice 20 years ago.

I also noticed a tendency for these 'uncertainty nowadays compared to back whence' type model critique themes to emerge whenever the models go from a fun solution to a piece of shit, too - LOL

It's interesting to see the entire ensemble suite of the EPS be so much more coherently intense around 90 hours compared to the GEFs. I mean, there's a lot of 975 mb pressure plots and the GEFs are like 1002

Where's George01 ...?!

Just imagine a day when all that technological infrastructure is rendered meaningless by the advent of the 'Weather Actualization Grid' ... something like a HARP starts guiding the atmosphere, such that modeling the way we know it is instantly outmoded. Dystopia -

agreed

My problem with it is the wave spacing. There's definitely some torque robbing going on there between it and ...whatever the 4th ultimately does to make us think things will work out better while it's not lol

You know ... I arrived home from Thanks Giving week travels and there was no sign it had ever snowed - assuming Ayer was in the snowing region. Because I was away in the mid Atlantic ... I have yet to see it actually snowing yet this year. I suppose that it's only a little late for Novie 30 in the broader statistical sense, but It's still kind of amusing for me personally.

Ha... probably more damning than not but I did find one piece of legislature that 'sort of' supports the Euro agenda... The NAVGEM,

I'll also add ... the 108 hr sensible weather differences between the Euro, vs the world, are huge. Should one or the other win along roughly a NW CT to S NH axis, than the other would have clearly busted for D 4.5 Probably reality will manifest somewhere in between all this mess, but it'll be interesting to see if what transpires leans more one way or the other.

It's still an interesting solution - to me - between 102 and 108+ hours, guys. There's a clear ptype gradient happening between between 102 and ~105 hrs, to where Orange Ma is over to moderate S while large aggregated IP bombs are cutting into HFD. and those aspects are spanning a short distance along a collapse E/S. By 108 hours ( again ,.. talking about the Euro solution), flipping to snow at FIT with IP at ORH. The system wanes to probably light snow for most NW of PVD by 114 hours upon exit. It's really just placement of the low. The 12z run yesterday had the surface features moving farther S of the latter 00z run by a couple hundred miles. Should that bump even half way back S on this next run, these aspects above likely will split the difference.

I've referred to these types of systems as 'busted raviolis' in the past. I think I even half commiserated in one of those winter outlook threads that this type of system structure would be a risk. The flow is fast and is pancaking in latitude so wave spacing/management in guidance and to a great deal in reality, ends up in neggie interference. Anyway, I'd give it today's cycles. I don't think data sparseness is nearly as problematic as it was about 12 years ago, a point in time when assimilation techniques appeared to improve. But, the entire wave mechanical mass of everything passing east of 90W, from Sunday thru Tuesday, is still out over the open expanse of the eastern Pac. The other aspect is that the Euro may have the right idea with the lead wave being more dominant, but the inconsistencies with the thermal layout from run to run is unusual for that guidance at this range. Probably means something bad as far as 'wanting' a noel experience ( lol ), but ... the last two days have been on and off with it.

Not familiar with that as spoken here, but ... I have opined in this forum several times over the recent years that it seemed the pattern was placating the GFS biases at time - so yeah ...that's interesting. To wit, we just spent 4 years or whatever in Nina. Even though the Nina was at times having trouble coupling up ..but that's another debate. Anyway, it seems when the flow type is fast/progressive, the GFS does tend to better scoring just based upon my own observations. I don't know if that is really more identifiable in versions. NCEP's been implementing new ones like Fez candies...

Anyway ... I suspect the first wave is the dominant. The only reason I do is because of history; more often than not in these wave contention scenarios the lead wave ends up the one that gets the job done. The 2nd wave 'crowding' along in the flow 'kind of' also fits into the model lensing/'magnification' aspect of too much longer range amplitude correcting. If/when they necessarily back off, that opens up the flow when it corrects and then the lead wave takes over.

It's like a climate snow signal for any given Dec 6 ... Maybe a little above that.

I suspect this is the leader run for a consensus

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

And that reductive tendency has actually got a motivation to doom-cast against the hopes and dreams of anything resembling optimism. I've pretty much just come to factor in and figure for a 30% 'not as bad as all that' ness, in order to vet the kernels of objective outlook.