Typhoon Tip

Think it’s interesting that the jet mechanics are just starting to nose on board into the denser sounding grid out west and right away, we get some modulation here.

yeah there it is in the operational though. there's an oe signal popping up there in the qpf... that's a cold nascent high there so that's an interesting factor for the coast... a near miss but strong ene ccb fringe would make it winter like in that solution gfs, 18z sorry

going ahead a leveling a stereo type bomb here but leave it to an alias that has the word, "vegan" in it to invoke the irrepressible work of angels and demons ... haha j/k dude

the great boxing day blizzard ( for everyone but tampon tip ) storm

oh, wait a minute ... that's the ensemble mean. shit. well, in that case, that ivt is actually because there's likely some members with either a strong ivt signal or are just bodily west of the mean.

that looks like a long shore fetch setting up... if that happens there's likely to be some oe working with general low level frontogenics ..i could see a plume of light snow in that hinted ivt over pa also clusters in southern me eastern ma and ri

you guys laugh but this is may be a problem propulsion: unknown; no heat plumes; invisible to infrared tech vector: est 4 to 5g turn maneuvers at low altitude lasting hours; rules out any known electrical energy propulsion system. source: unknown apparently from the open ocean, without knowing if they are under or over water. detection: optical only; some form of signal management/concealment ... either some agency of this world has made some stunning advancements in technology and are figuratively lording it over our heads, or this is the most fantastic hoax ever contrived

sounds like t-2 diabetes/advanced insulin resistance started all that

yeah i've come to just stop trying to figure out why the global models are always 10 f too short on highs, summer or winter... i just figure they stop mixing at 1000 mb and assume that's the sfc sigma everywhere, so they basically don't have a 2-meter temp - even though the f'ing product says that

well ... if it's any conciliatory value I was never one of those ( bold ^ ). i wouldn't, because i believe so long as the upward cc trend is not a linear slope, but a curve exponential affair - as it is proving to be ... - all plausible impact/visions should be considered. and, those that would more than likely surprise many. just look at the last 3 years ... no one would have that subtropical cloud aerosols would suddenly drop to the point where the heat budget exploded the way it has.

norlun illusion? it may actually be a kind of ‘echo’ of physics for west positions

yes dude! that is huge, the hudson bay 'marine heat wave' ...which, going forward may prove less like a heat wave and more like point of no return, but we'll see.. but yes, i was noticing that this year in particular, but in previous years ...retarded recoveries in late autumn

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example. or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high. we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average; just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ... this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this. we had an upstream in time and space, -epo cold load. said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day. 57? ...it's 54 already. which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too. we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this is a cap high anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed. Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point. it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate - the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years... i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia. well ? if the shoe fits. i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what i've experienced, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj. it's almost spot on, really. my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild" sound familiar? struck me as so when she said it.

this week is a comical folly we get a juicy fast moving wave about .5C too warm for any sne snow, then ... whiffed by a coastal literally within radar scan of the coast late in the week = no snow for xmas consider yourselves served!

did you put your slip and failed recovery fall on instagram yet ...

all the wormhole portals by the alien sentinel drones opening and closing is causing temporal ripple effect in the local space.

in a below normal month no less ... ho man. the chapping of asses is priceless

telecons don't look great for winter enthusiasm heading into january frankly ... the wpo/epo are solidly switching modes in the outlook and the positive pna starts to collapse after xmas. it tries to maintain a modest positive aspect out there in the deep range.... but that's all there is to really stop this bus from driving down a different road entirely. believe me, we've been fortunate - as bad as the payoff has been - to this point. should we lose that n/pac arc, and then say if the pna goes neg ... you will be shock and awed at how bad this winter would be. 70s in jan in a cc attributionist's fantasy, no problem

the ggem is snowing xmas morning

well... there's still a handful of other guidance that looked more encouraging - i guess we auto sans those in lieu of the bipolar rage ? lol just kidding. yeah, i don't think the euro is going to be very wrong inside of 120 hours. i'll give it one more cycle ( this evening) inside it's 96 hour wheelhouse. it gets rare really fast for it to be wrong enough to make a huge difference, particularly when this has large field problem in this run. i mean, those have to be fixed before looking for nuances to help out --the western ridge sucks. --the field doesn't respond quickly enough after the mid week thing leaves

i thought he was serious ... i don't disagree with his "sarcasm" either way. it was close. the next step would be to see the flow out ahead of the s/w, as it is nearing the coast, begin to back aloft. ...show up as some bowing back west along the isopleths that extend ne from the trough nadir ...etc etc that s/w ridging is happening because of latent heat exhausting off a b-c leaf, which actually getting something to happen here would be hugely helped by that actually taking place -

right, and my point was ... if there is going to be a shift aft of the previous, the gfs is prooobably going to be the last model to join in, in situations like these where it seems that speed in the flow is conserved

this whole situation has a pube's width of tolerance, while the gfs has a pube of progressive bias over all other guidance - i've railed on about this hidden aspect to the gfs for years, and still detect that as being the case every non and again but different discussion.

yeah how did y'all do down there ... i saw a ton of bright banding on rad at dawn just s over the sound but if .. figured a couple on the n side of that ?