Typhoon Tip

That's what I'm wondering yeah. Cuz the last few runs didn't have that much -NAO response, but they also didn't have that TC capture, either. Those two are likely connected per this run

Heh... 'magine this? outta left field, everyone's trying to get winter rollin' in and this sneaks up on us?

Cool animation! Wonderfully demos how New England is canonically screwed out of warm air at the end of that cinema, too

Actually, there's a signal in the WPO that precedes the EPO ... by a 3-5 days - albeit modest. It's there. That -d(WPO) --> -d(EPO) --> +PNA along that timeliness is a flag that there's an r-wave pulse moving through the N arc of Pac domain. It may not be a full on AB mode out there, but it's enough to send a cold shot/reload into Canada out past the 15th, nonetheless... We'll see

I was just looking more closely at the EPO and PNA indexes betwixt the 12th and 20th ... There's canonical behavior in a EPO burst followed by +PNA emerging in the Euro ens. 'Reasonably' well matched in the GEFs but less coherent in the PNA aspect. That's usually a more indicative of a real R-wave translation through the NE Pac that across the Conus, as opposed to the more static/standing wave variant ( which tucks the cold and Rockies snow pack improvement) while we swelter east of 100W. Either can manifest down stream of a -EPO burst, but seeing the PNA is encouraging that we don't spend 3-5 days with 70 F speaking in deference to winter enthusiasts, mind you.

https://phys.org/news/2023-11-october-obliterated-temperature-virtually-hottest.html

Yeah... not that anyone bites on that GFS run but it's not just cold. There's a couple of decent wintry risks out there, too.

Yup, Kevin's favorite pattern - wholly unremarkable in any dimension.

Great - a winter with a built in can kick requirement

Models seem to be having trouble really committing to the extent of that warm up in that period. I'm a little skeptical myself ... I mean the period favors milder than normal. That's based upon pattern recognition/trend alone. But the other indicators are not that impressive for pushing anomalies very high. That 'might' be why the operational solutions are keeping the ridge kind of flat, and have our 850 mbs < than +10C We could also end up getting that typical New England exclusion synoptics. Enough NW deeper layer flow tendencies to shunt the ballast of warmth from getting NE of NYC. Mild...but sort of cooler relative to the pattern at first glance. Just some thoughts. I mean if the telecon numerical stuff improves and the operationals raise height more in concert I'll get confident in an Indian Summer deal

Yup, coldest day so far, both by numbers and sensible appeal. I just like that combination as it sets this hour, 35/21, 22mph gusts

They were here originally...some how some way - You're the puma expert. Just "mewsing" haha

probably not done with this 65-70 thing

Some day a pregnant cougar will migrate like that male did ... and at the same time, some male will have too. Then the female kittens will grow up and the male will bang 'em and next thing you know, there's a fledgling population.

He should worry about CC screwing up his preconceptions of telecon layouts during winter. With faster flow velocity appearing to be an unavoidable rapture that warps the standard R-wave residences ( size, location and time) Siberian doesn't mean the same thing as it did the 1990s.

Euro's 12z run buckin' for historic -PNA D7-12

finally some better news ... https://phys.org/news/2023-10-early-earth-breaching-key-threshold.html

Not sure this is believable but,

could it have been a Bobcat ? they're not exactly tiny. Although their tails tend to be smaller. Just sayin'

Yeah, ...not sure if it were you or someone else asking the other day, but there was a similar question related to 'when-knowing,' or getting a feel for when to promote something out of mere noise, into the running of real chances. The same response here. Primarily, consensus from multiple sources that shows or begin to show scenarios that look the same. That's a big one. Sometimes a seemingly innocuous single solitary ensemble member puts up some different idea than the going consensus, then another... Couple runs later, another and another add in. Then more collapse in favor of the new idea and a new consensus is born. There's many ways that can materialize, but in general, just taking note of what the consensus is, that's where the confidence is. Unless one possesses some sort of prescient gift of vision in said matters ... lol. There's also trend awareness from two different facets - this can modulate the above (more advanced). One is related to the tenor of the pattern: 'Has the setting happened before/frequency therein?' etc. The other is, 'Does the trend in question still fit into the pattern mode?' Those are little bit more abstract ... the latter one is particularly "artful" because the pattern mode can subtly vary while still technically or seemingly be in the same mode, but that subtle change represent physical influences in the background ... which questions the wisdom of trend reliance.

Not sure we should we bite ( ...heh, not ), but the telecon spread was subtly improved for winter enthusiasts out near and beyond the 20th+ Fwiw, the EPO is sagging in time. It's not like it's cratering or anything, but it goes from +1 to -1SD over 10 days. Whilst the PNA, although mainly neutral is going from neutral-neg to neutral-pos. Some thoughts on that: When it comes to handling the EPO index, the declination is probably more important than how it gets there. Per my experience, I wouldn't be surprised if that slow gradated look is there for 2 or 3 days in the runs, and then suddenly we see it manifest with more coherency in the actual structure of the total synopsis. We already had one 10 days ago (when we were in the 70s/near 80 that week). So, it's not like it's unprecedented for this year/season to date... Also, some fun I noticed ... the 00z GFS and Euro were, in principle, agreeing on the D5-10 range. But the GGEM was not. The GGEM was setting the table for something wholly different and fun. Lingering albeit cold enough air mass drapes N of the Ohio River Valley throughout eastern Lakes and NE, while a strong N/stream punch of energy cores out a pathway over the Lakes - extrapolating precariously toward the upper M/A underneath said lingering albeit sufficiently cold enough air mass. Oh man ...pleasy weezie with sugar on top. Too bad it's like that day dreamer model in the class while the respected academics hash things out. But, then the 06z GFS arrived with a pretty significant structural redress that hearkened to the 00z GGEM idea ... Not entirely, just hearkened. It turns the corner over the Lakes with a punch of S/W mechanics, toting along a decent shot of polar A/B air. That's a like a tap on the shoulder after the class when out of sight of the rock stars, "Hey man, don't sweat it that the others were makin' fun of your idea back there - I understood what you meant. It's not impossible."

Let's just hope the ENSO couples into mid latitudes strongly enough to force the Rossby orientation - I'm not so sure it will, but is admittedly experimental on my part.

Well, what were the winters? That's the whole point. They were above normal temperature, with above normal snowfall - the latter by virtue of above normal precipitation in general. Within that frame, I was only advancing the possibility that the snow is skewed toward higher results because when it is/has snowing/ed, it's done so with greater deposition - it's [likely] part of CC that there is an increased frequency of observed single event hypertrophic results (synergistic heat, cold and precipitation are all empirically larger, world over, spanning that last 20 and particularly that last 10 years). Look, there probably was more to that discussion prior to my arrival - so it is what it is. But it should be easier now for one to imagine three weeks dumping 70 inches, and exceeding yearly snow total, even having a couple of cold waves embedded,. Those actually lie about the fact that the other 9 other weeks of DJF were pieces of shit. Lol. That's all. -little sarcasm, sure just I'd also caution ... using a single location to characterize the region surrounding. Mm, that is mathematically false. Doing so using Logan in particular? That is an especially poor location for characterizing southern New England. He was saying the winters sucked because they were warm much of the time and were compressed into a shorter windows. He's actually not entirely wrong based upon my own memory. Winters N-NE of NYC's latitude aren't ever end to end, anyway. I don't ever recall one in my decades of life. The closest we've ever come was 1995-1996 and that one took a 40" snow pack down to field ponds and steaming snow banks in 10 days flat in the Hades of all thaws mid way through... That said, there's just not refuting that the warm periods have grown in length, while cool times have shrunk. Snow has increased, but again ...the statistics kind of lie about the experience of it when the retention is twice as short, and there is more rain to go along with.

Wait tho- how does Boston having abv normal snowfall in 6 out of the last 10 years successfully abase what he said? Just as an example, there’s a new climate signal for single event results that are so extreme that one or two of them in a season can push a location to or even exceeding seasonal normal. I guess it all matters snow total then? I guess… for me if it’s 60° 80% of the time and you get two big snow storms that doesn’t cut it but that’s just me.

Yet that never seems to trigger an objective brow raise amongst his constituency