Typhoon Tip

dp was 46 here as the sun hit the horizon last evening. the air had that hemorrhage heat to space and probable frost feel ( and smell to it - ) at that time, but with that relatively elevated dp ... mm stopped at 41. i'm playing the mind game i do every october, where i must get to the 15th before turning on the heat. yesterday's high capped lower than 70, and after the previous night was 41, the house wasn't really warming very much. i'm probably siting in 61 F and debating... i think with tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow night i'll probably be forced. it's all mini splits now - it would be the first attempt at heating since mid summer installation.

fwiw - this source provided by the climate diagnostic center is good for a quick n dirty ( coarse ) correlation between all indices, broken out by month https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/ ...it's always been available, just sayn' but just classical experience knows that the wpo is correlated ( positively ) with the epo. the matrix above suggests it is between +.1 and +.2 cc, which in reality ...the correlation is likely greater than that range. the disclaimer also notes that these are all linear - therein is a problem in blanket usage. for the sake discussion, because the progression of all events in the atmosphere being what they are, a wpo index will necessarily ( geophysically ) require some amount of lag to manifest downstream in the epo domain. linearity does not necessarily represent accelerations; the correlations are thus happenstance and don't consider time dependence. so, when applying a lag, the correlation likely stronger is all i'm sayn during times of rapid hemispherical modality, i've found that diving wpo tends to manifest in the epo about 3 days later ( approx) ... ranging to 5 to 7 days during low amplitude ( or even no registry at this far end ). variances that are quite academic anyway, considering no indexes are 1::1...etc. uuusually though, a robust wpo index mode/modality will eventually represent, due to some amount of forcing, downstream in the epo domain - resident or longevity of mode, notwithstanding. those privy to these large scale teleconnector relationships typically pay attention east of the ural/alps across asia, where super synoptic mode changes --> wave dispersal downstream of the continent effects the wpo --> epo ... and so on, the source 'zygote' in pattern modulation across n/a perhaps week to 10 days later.

the pressure just stoned to 905 mb ... the posted wind being 165 mph may in fact be in the process of increasing because of response lag. and i'm not sure we've seen the lowest pressure yet -

it may actually be moving too slow to sustain that ceiling intensity. although it is nearing the loop current ohc source... but for the time being, it almost looks stalled on the last 3 hours ( or very slow) worth of sat cinema. could be some overturning - speculation

yeah this isn't nearly as impressive this morning ... we'll see where the day goes

well... we can look forward to nominally below normal temperatures followed by nominally above normal temperatures, with nominal to no rain through the 23rd or so. hm hm?

40 to 60 here in 3 hours is impressive enough

so 897, eh

wilma's winds maxed 185 mph sustained at one point, too - as did gilbert. ..not to far from milton gilbert had a truly immense circulation envelopment, though. wouldn't be shocked if gilbert owns the ise record by an embarrassing margin. but that's a trinket metric my theory on wilma is that she was probably able to attain such a dramatic pressure fall ( almost 97 mb in 24 hours. might be a ri record ) because she developed and stalled amidst a cag. storms that develop in already neggie base pressure anomalies can end up deeper relatively so. the feb blizzard up here along the sne coast in '78 was never below 982 ... but the surrounding ambience was very elevated at detonation/bombogen phases so it had an upward biased descension curve.

once read an accounting of the labor day event where as the eye traversed the keys ... toilet water began gashing out of toilets, presumably do to sudden drop entering the pressure well/change. it was in the old weather almanac/book published in 1974 i think it was. as the eye passed off the water stopped rising out of the toilets, and this unusual behavior was attributed to the sudden pressure fall in the interior. amazing

180 mph 905 mb

looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon. and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible. but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.

theoretic stuff but .. ... if we erc here sooner or later, then it's a larger system that still has to pass over the nw arc of the loop current, as it ascends latitude - consensus at 12z still looks to be tb but we'll see on that. just wondering what a post erc, larger system then does when it hits that ohc reservoir

jesus christ

prayers ...seriously. i mean, i can imagine that conversation last night might have been similar. pending some kind of modeling changes ( and of course there's no crystal ball) but for the time being, this omens as one of those 'special' kind of hells what went on the carolina high country notwithstanding

man that could be a perfect scenario to achieve absolute destruction if that plays out ...looks like - at this time - the consensus puts the right eye wall over the southern inlet to tampa's bay, with the low pressure's core passing over the northern shore. that would drive a near physically maximized storm surge mass, drawn up by regionally historically deep barometric pressure, into a narrowing geographic scenario. wtf as far as the wind, the best would be if an ewr could occur - but that's also no guarantee. typically aft of an ewr, the system spreads it's ise over a larger envelopment, lowering some of the inward pg stress that tends to ease off on the wind throttle. but the pressure could still remain very deep, and with all that wind momentum working sea as it encroaches upon that bay area place head between knees, kiss ass goodbye lucky there's a couple of days - least they got that goin for em

"Wilmaaaa ... stop this crazy thing!"

wow 160

yeah, i was mentioning the physical presentation on satellite has that extremely small eye radii look that noted very deep bombs have had in the past. wilma is great example of that. i wasn't sure at the time if that was not just a mimicry based on incidental cloud morphology but seeing that 32 in 4 hour thing - this may as well be a f'n tornado.

if it were not for the fact that 00z euro-like shenanigans have actually taken place in objective reality ...several times since the year 2000, i'd say the euro's 00z sell for day 7.5 is impressive. but as it were ( and has been ) that model's solution is becoming expected - it seems to be a part of this local era climate signal to do so in late oct! either way, with huge air mass d(types) over climatological shallow time changes, the charts are starting to remind me of that back half of october into early novie 2020. not calling for any anologs ... just sensible weather look. it should be noted that both the ggem and gfs for that d6-8 have at least, albeit transient, whole sale +pnap and cold snap advection synoptics for the eastern gl/ n ov and ne regions. as an aside ... recall 2020 saw a sizable snow anomaly ( rel to climo ) drop through the region on oct 30, and then by the 6-10th of novie was 70 to 80 in the interior.

bullish on the intensity forecast .. now lower category 5 by tuesday evening right now on ir the eye has the dreaded pin-prick look - not sure what the dimensions really are. it may just be an artifact nuance but in and of itself the teeny eye axis surrounded by -90c ring has been noted of very deep bombs. think wilma -

milton 125 mph 945 mb ... drop 9 mb! special advisory posted... ri underway

sort of a warm/cool tussle going on in the guidance after mid week tho. the higher latitude indices are in a warm phase. the pna is in positive mode. ...and the operational guidances are yo-yoing the pattern across the continent about evenly between which one of those larger scaled circumstances will proxy our daily weather from roughly the 10th -20th

watch the mid week cool pop end up so windy that last night is the coolest night in the stretch lol not sayn that's happening just that it'd be apropos for climate-any-excuse-to-not-be-as-cold-as-guidance-complexion-change

still thinking frost or near frost mid week, but we may regress back to a warm up thereafter ... it's difficult with conflicting upstream signals but the wpo/epo is warm mid month and the ao/nao are creeping positive... yet the pna is stubbornly positive. not sure how that's going force the dailies - the wave lengths aren't quite long yet. it's interesting that we're seeing those cold meanders though.