Typhoon Tip

not sure how this compares to norms but here's the 30 day anime from usicecenter.gov

oceanwx was pointing out the other day that negative retention has become a kind of climate signal in and of itself. not sure what the feedback spectrum really is but it's easy to make plausible. the types of snow that are falling may be getting paradoxically lower in water - like it snows fluffier in cold air, to greater depths, but then a 'beef event' rains into the more gossamer snow pack and it's thus less resilient... etc. just spit-balling. one could almost holistically intuit that may be related to the same idea/observation in how globally, glaciers have been retreating, too - but either way, he was saying that the good old days ... a snow event or two, then a rain ... and the snow would absorb to refreeze and then the next snow layers ... etc. now more often even a deeper snow pack gets vanquished. i'm wondering if his office has really made that observation numeric, and in/of doing so ... what the temperatures in the low level are before and after the changes in the pack behavior. interesting -

probably getting more common

impressive diurnal ... 59 here, up from 30.

this reminds me of a personal muse i've been struggling with .. and that has to do with identifying the pacific warming as a heat "wave" waves by definition have a time dependency where they do not persist indefinitely. it's a wave ... it has some sort of precursor physical registry in the system, followed by a surge in whatever metric it is effecting, followed by a reduction in energy. thus, it is an ephemeral condition. it may just be a matter of semantic nitty picky shit ... or, maybe it reflects a fallacy in the understanding of what is going on with the oceanic sst/energy budget overall, within the ocean and outside where it is quasi coupled to the troposphere. hmmm like maybe this is not a 'wave' in that sense and should be thought of us the new basal state. in which case ...yeah, any telecon correlations that were previous to the new mode are rendered less than correlative. this true all over and everywhere. teleconnectors are correlating oddly. get use to it because the world may not be going back

the old standard method of telecon offer bleak outlook for cold/winter enthusiasts. -pna/rising epo/neutral positive nao, all while the super synoptic indicators are warm dog shit not that anyone asked, and i figure for no one really giving a shit what i want but despite my having been following these ensuing warm anomaly days this weekend, i really am an early/front-loaded winter guy. i get it that even prior to the hockey-stick climate f'ing era we are currently being pumped by, how front-loaded winters were rarer, anyway - but hey, we all have our fetishes - they still seemed to occur every 5 or so years.. obviously history annuls some truly astounding winter storms beyond the first week of february. despite that ... once the solar transition season gets underway around the 10th .. i just seem to be on autopilot and can't stop checking-out. i am an interested met no matter what ...so that keeps me sort of dialed in, but ... i have trouble feeling truly inspired by winter by those late chapters. it's like a book i lose interest in and put down with 3 to go. ha but those rare years where it's white by mid novie and decembers go nuts, i'm all in

yeah ..i wondered that.

so ... both the met and mav machine/mos coverage are right around 70 for sat maxes along the bdl-fit-ash-bed arc of the interior. the 850's are ~ +13c ... there's a light w to sw flow through the region, with way < 50% ceiling level rh values, while a neutral-dvm column. in other words, unadulterated sun. it's an interesting test here, because those metrics in that relationship should synergize ( at least some ...) warmer, while at the same time it's tough to ignore the sun is nearing the southern tree line at zenyth - i.e., getting tepid by now. the straight up adiabat from 13 is about 74 or 75, but that doesn't include the 2-meter super adiabatic slope temp... which can be 3 or 5 f above the adiabat after april 1 or so. not so sure about october 17 and fade away jump shots tho. it's not like the models can't 'see' the warmth entirely ... mex is over 75 on monday. but i'm curious if we can get an 80 out of the climo sites per the course of this sat - next tues ...

great post! this could have been considered/visualized 10 or 15 years ago but ... seasonal forecasting is a bit of an evolution requirement i suppose

welp ...now that winter's come and gone ... we turn the page into spring starting tomorrow. annnd as usual around here, we only get spring for one afternoon before the heat of summer bullies in. oh wait - actually, i'm rather impressed that there's no back dooring from sunday to next tue/wed. you can kind of see a paltry attempt to buckle/confluent the flow a little over ontario, but it the total mechanics are too longitudinal so it ends up just being a weaker air mass change. we'll see. but that's a nice extended period of out doorsy days persisting in the guidance - it's impressive how long this has been a stable look in the models.

last night was a classic radiational cold manufacturing, and yes ...it favors lower elevations. it probably floored somewhere 35 to 40 along any ridge or hill elevation that is adjacent to a cold air drainage sloping down to dales and nadirs in elevation. if you get out in the middle of plateau-like region, farther removed from a gravity well than there was probably a shallow decoupled pool of 32ies ... but by and large, these mornings don't freeze 10 year old tongues to flag poles around 1,000 feet. the preceding is a description designed specifically for Raymond -

i think "28 freeze" must be a rough or average because it froze here at 29. no question. it was 34 by midnight, and we were car-topped and glistening by 10. the graphs at the local sites all indicated several hours below 32 - it seems if we're spending multiple hours at 29 it's getting the job done. heh, morning nit pick

29 ..we were softly kissed by a frost two nights ago when we pinged 34 and a half for a low, but this morning is for real. Cold enough to even observed that still air cold shock leaf fall, a phenomenon owing to expansion of phase change in leaf stems fracturing - assuming so. usually kicks in around 30. i've seen late trees offload almost half their previous afternoon color in a single morning down to 19 before. it's a neat albeit nerdy observation i like to look for every autumn

lol buuut... gotta give Kevin the nod on that one. he did not say "80s" ... nor days and days of it? pretty sure he say a couple days of 80 given that spread there and well .. meteorology of that synopsis, 80 would be possible. reminder, it was 80 to 82 for 3 or 4 days in november of 2020 in the interior

and what's up with the 2-meter t's this weekend on guidance. ggem's frosting the interior dales under 590 dm heights. i figure for higher end diurnal ranges, sure but how wide -

i was surprised i didn't frost last night .. we stopped at 39. noticed some breeze at dawn so that's probably why - lack of decoupling. may not be an issue tonight.

that comparison is unfortunately less then any usefulness. we can't compare disparate regions if/when the accumulated data is non-comparable time spans. the bigger picture: also, having occurred at two different ends of a cc curve, one proving to be a non-linear response, i.e. accelerated(ing), immediately invalidates. ...but maybe that was sarcastic..

yeah, agreed, it's true re the marginal effect. however, once any objective reality outside just that region of urban expansion is very necessarily included ( much less even considered...) the argument is immediately rendered entirely false. op ed: 'climate change non-conforming' philosophy usage/narratives appear to be less clear on a fundamental aspect of nature: non-linearity of complex systems. these cncp debate artists, they only see (X + X + X) as = 3x ... but in fact, nature never works that way. it always equals 3x' ( prime ) .... a differential of some unintended and/or synergistic reductions, or gains, either way. nature is messy. not pointing anyone out in this social media ... i haven't gone back and looked over any posts or exactly attempted to apply a Myers-Briggs assessment to gather truer intent, either... ha simply put, the atmospheric chemical make up, inside vs outside any city 'expansion', is no different after the fact of AGHG homogeneity ... it's a matter of comparing deltas, d(rural temperature) = a smaller gain than d(city temperatures). lost on most people... the rest could 'get it' if they wanted, but carry on with some other morality influencing an agenda.

big fan of older/traditional physical settings in the observations of weather.. still have not seen any virga shrouded cu despite these chillier days. need to see that first -

i'm waiting on the models to add 1.5 to even 2c at 850 in that look. i've noticed that warm signals are muted in that 850 mb metric in long ranges, just as much as cold signals tend to correct as having been too deep - however much, either case, notwithstanding. we saw 81 at ash and bed and fit back during that warm spell, nov 5-10, 2020 from a pattern similar to this look. just sayn'

more of an extended range forecast post above than an enso topic but yeah. heh. i would also add that wave lengths are in seasonal flux ... that aleu anomaly, once faster foot velocities are installed and the rossby wave numbers reduce, that's not likely to be there. or if so ...it's likelier that the winter paradigm happened to end up doing the same thing thru a different wave number. just sayn' in a nut shell that's probably partial in why octobers bear so little statistical value wrt ensuing winters frankly ... i think we're seeing a dominant +annular mode this winter, regardless ... and, doing so in this particular era of the 'hockey stick' cc explosive rise ... it's like trying to sniff out a winter fragrance in a room full o digshit.

yeah ... climate infers the dimming should be happening, anyway - we'll see.

while not at the scale of precedence discussed in this thread to date ... the warm up spanning the n ov to ne and n ma region from late friday thru early this next week has some potential to be historic. we've been monitoring a robust +500 mb anomaly in both the individual operation versions, all of which is very well statistically anchored by the teleconnector modes/modalities during the period. the particulars/dailies have the ambient polar boundary anomalously situated n of seasonality, with a very large circumvallate of 850 mb temperatures above +12c through said region, under the influence of dvm/associated higher surface pressure. well established deep layer west wind transports w ejected mass spanning a minimum of 3 days - may only be 2 day but given to what is also non-deviated continuity for this signal in the above spectrum of guidance., it may take us into early next week. the sun is feeble(r) - that is apparently the only limiting factor. can it dump enough energy into the described environment to max the potential. probably not I'd say...but given to 80 or so % of what that is, would still make these records below vulnerable. note, in 2020 we achieved 79 to 83 at sites in the interior of sne as late as november 9. i was looking around at records for oct 18 and 19. hartford ct part of this is a bit experimental. we are observing 'over achieving' warmth just about whenever a pattern is conducive to positive anomalies, world over... relative to climo and/or predictive methods ( machine and experience or both). this look in the 500 mb/ 850 thermal layout/ synoptic tapestry is a 'smoking gun' for testing that again... October 18 84 2016 October 19 82 1963 October 20 81 1969 both new york and boston are similar

not trying to troll the interest in the near term cold shot - it's impressive. but i really ( personally ...) think that focus is eclipsing a potentially bigger story.. 2 facets: - scalar achievement in warm anomaly - the delta between tue-thur and the weekend in itself both these records have an outside shot of being reset this sat and sun at hartford, ct October 19 82 1963 October 20 81 1969

heh ... not going to say they are wrong out of hand - haven't read their afd philosophy but in so far as the veneer of this graphic above i'm not sure i agree with that assessment