Typhoon Tip

Meh... the common engager tends to be pretty linear in their reactions, though: x' looks like shit --> mood = shit doesn't matter what happened before what they saw...discussed. any of that. gone. see shit model solution --> mood = shit that's their mathematics. a few others can filter what they are seeing through a gauntlet of qualifiers, (experience + education)/2 before they react - but that processing actually limits much "reaction" at all. the may even be rather stoic to a bad or even bad series of model runs. what is interesting about this latter type of people, possessing varying amounts of that advantage/skill ... they are deliciously fragile in self-esteem and ego and the moment they are questioned they actually react worse than those of the linear group HAHAHAHA

One of those coastals arrived with an event entry temperature of +9 F here ... warmest it would be during the duration. Routine 50 to 55 mph wind gusts creaking window and rafter transported cold-shattered snow particulates as though it were an explosion at a talcum powder refinery. At one point just before the storm wound down the temperature stood at -1 F with 1/8 mi vis ... That was the worst combination of cryosophere I had experienced since the Cleveland Super Bomb Jan 25/27 1978, when it was 15F with 65 mph wind gusts over 30" of snow, the top several inches of which were in wind-driven flux.

would not trust anything the GFS is selling during the next 3 to maybe 5 days... Not the type of hemisphere that particular model does very well in - which is, a combination of a pattern change happening while velocities are relaxing(ed). Just look at the recent handling of this scenario over the near-by west Atlantic Basin. Most guidance do not do so well at 300+ hour anyway - not expected to... But, the GFS is particularly extra-special secret sauce useless... If it's not handling the mid range worth a shit, that's no lending credence to the anything in that distant range ( understatement). Having said that, it doesn't seem to even have pattern orientation nearing the ides of the month, I time when all other available tooling and techniques have highly correlative +PNA --> loading a +PNAP hemisphere.

I’m leaning more progressive than the GFS op’s. which defaults to some sort of interlude of warming. No comment on how but the op Euro seems to be on the extreme end of the solutions.

Op 0Z Euro had a +11C 850 mb plumb approaching NYC next week fwiw- …getting precariously close to ‘heat burst’ criteria … Worlds of difference to the op GFS for that time, but again … recent GFS runs have been demonstrative outliers.

If it helps anyone ... those probability products are not designed for scalar outlooks ? - people seem to forget that whenever someone posts those hot colors. A 70% chance of above normal only means literally a 70% chance of above normal - that can mean anything ... +0.10 or +10 ... It just is a confidence interval that points which side of 0.0 the expected temperature biases will result. That's all. Nothing else... It shouldn't have to mean 70% chance that someone with Kleenex, lotion and an antisocial penchants gets to e-rape the going sentiment in route to their orgasm because they were raised in a toxic, gay-shading penumbra during critical formulative years. LOL J/k... Also, you can see the pattern change at mid month showing up nicely in the extended 850 mb anomalies. We'll see if these hold ... We could certainly see the arrival of pattern change and have these normalize some - in fact that kind of 'warm correction' sneaking in ... obviously they've been a leitmotif spanning the last 20 years of modeling, regardless. I wouldn't normally bother at such long leads..but, since this is backed by so much suggestive weighting it'll be interesting to see what form winter's swan song actually takes

Spectrum ...that's why

The operational GFS has been acting like a zonked errant ensemble member the last day and half -worth of runs. The larger scope spatial orientation is too consistently against in the cinemas of all other available sources, both operational versions to their ensemble means. Including the GFS' own ensemble mean. Really puts nearly 100% of the onus on it to be right. That's not usually ending well for the guidance that's doing that - a coup over the group thinking is one thing, but that? That amount of deviation argues for something of another excessive aberrancy altogether. Short version: punt. ...Oh, we'll keep it going as an afterthought. Mainly because we're psychotically incapable of letting go LOL. But what are we talking about anyway - it's not like it's going to come far enough west to put anyone in headline anything. It really can't with a mid Canadian ridge collapsing S-E/transmitting a non-linear argument for blocking from the NW whether it is actually observably so on the charts or not ( hence the non-linear aspect -) heh. buh-bye. 13th+ still beacons with potential

ICON trended significantly this 0Z

It’s not hooking yet, but it’s really close to getting captured

Yeah it’s interesting. Hook and latter’s been a recurrent suggestion

it would give lovelorn SEerners a couple good tugs from OES ... That's a helluva long fetch transporting fresh polar air out of the polar maritime

Throughout this afternoon's unbelievably obsessive peregrinations of that thing ... "hook and latter" ... was discussed back in the 1990s. And. it's a play on words owned (most likely ) only to old school Met parlance... can we give it a fuckum rest now? lord

the Euro's not very good at that range. but, that doesn't exactly give any nod to the GFS, either - which has its own problems with believability

hard to believe it's been since 2018 ... I did okay in that event, too - had a few 4" diameter tree limb snaps with branches littering yards and town squares. Didn't lose power though. It was a high density 31.5F classic spring blue storm if I recall.

What? ladder is a device you climb latter means later in a series... as in, the storm hooks in later on.... = hook and latter

yeah I remember the radar backing NW and then just stopping ...ooooh so close.

Only what thing - I got 14" over here. So did FIT down to I-91...etc... it was a big area of 12+" ?

yeah...it's hard to trust that. I've notice a sequence (sort of..) over the last 3 days where about ever 4th model run the GFS attempts a "hook and latter" storm. ...then, the next run and they've inevitably faded back out... That sort of reminds me ( as is) of the Dec 26th 2004 storm that was a bomb but only got close enough to trigger OES into eastern Mass.

Yet...some of us are, anyway. 14" in a single dose is a text book major snow - even if people's dystopian expectation/lust has them thinking that's somehow pedestrian ...

You know it's a funny conversation - ... mainly for spectators like myself, who like to sit back in diabolical wait for the delicious posting wars muah hahaha. I don't typically involve in the luck debate. But, the hard reality is ... there is randomization associated with determinism in meteorology - a paradox in concepts there that I suspect is what loses people. "how could random anything lend to determinism "? fair question - the answer is, it doesn't. Determinism is not deterministic. People don't get that. Weather projection is a new advent in history ( trying to avoid being too 'deep' and glossing eyes). People need to understand how weather forecasting happens. Oh, they think they get it - but they don't. One important aspects that derails most ( from what I read in the public) on the way to their understanding: the pathway encounters increasing emergence of unintended forces along the way - these forces perturb the system in question. Blame quantum field theory but time permits randomness entering all systems. The only way to stop that is to control the quantum mechanics that is the origin of reality itself. This is referred to 'chaos' in common thinking... and time dependent systems cannot avoid them in our Universe - literally...it is a function of and how reality itself emerges. SO, "weather" people want to call it luck or not ... I don't care to get involved with people's personal grapple with shit they cannot control ( probably what motivates). But, when projecting the future state of any dynamic field ( to wit, weather is one of those types ) emergence of randomness makes absolute precision impossible. We are always increasingly reliant on randomness NOT violating the scope of the original projection, the farther out in time we attempt to project.

Yeah, it's hard to want to call it a signal this far in advance but it's pressing the 'period of interest' approach right to tolerance. man - huge. but, sufficed it is to say, that could also materialize in different ways. A period of time with multiple event coverage. Or as you say, some bigger singular restorative ordeal. It's just too early.. but, the three pillars are looming: numerical telecons are massively in favor; track -able R-wave modulations are switching the mode of the hemisphere into a text-book wave number; the back-ground correlators highly constrained. this can mean a lot of things... ranging from a single historic situation, to a series of important events, ...to even a variation between those too, just too far SE or NW to be ideal for our region. BUT, the eastern mid latitude continent is like a NASA targeting algorithm outputting bull's eye for a comet impact

For several days ... ~ the 4th thru the 11th ... we'll be passing through a 'sub-index scale' event management. That just means that things can happen, but they won't be as well signaled using the modal observations of the major mass-field domains ( deltas of the pna, ao ... epo nao dogs n cats willingness to sleep together ..etc) It's also possible that we'll go that distance in time but simply have nothing to track, too. But the swing potential is large with temperatures. If the ambient polar boundary some how gains enough latitude to be N-W, you could soar above climate by amounts that seem to exceed the in situ synopsis ( we'll leave it at that ) Lets hope for snow industries and general enthusiasts, we end up with a positively sloped L/W that mooshes the ridge heights S-E.

I would say that is an understatement if not for the fact that "doubt" has the benefit two weeks. 320 hours is unfortunately for confidence/determinism, just beginning to emerging through the "coherency lens" Otherwise, I have not seen one as impressive as what I am looking at in years, both analytically, and in the "feel." Vast array of both linear and non-linear factors are in teleconnector convergence. Linear is visible geometry of the hemispheric Rossby wave dance out in time - follow it along. Non-linear being the influences that cannot be readily seen, such as longer term correlations; and yes, the "groove"/feel of it is included in this latter

Definitely a period of interest evolving after ~ the 13th