Typhoon Tip

+6 to +10 is some kind of big anomaly but you know... it doesn't "feel" like a torch to me. I think it is because I am still overwhelmed/integrating those 80 ( yeah, 80) events we had in two Feb's, 4 or 5 different March's ...and even a couple April's with a 90 we experienced over the last 10 years. It's probably making my perspective on what a torch is as a little biased. I know it has not been higher than 62 here at mi casa this year, so far though. I'm wondering if this is like the warmest it has been while not actually getting to above 62 - maybe it's all in the lows or just a weird homogeneous same high temp every day or something. Feels like a sneakier +8 ... It'll be interesting to see how these averages look on the 25th and there's some 10 days of -4 SD EPO behind us

JMA's 12z run extrapolates to normal seasonal snowfall for everyone in this sub-forum ... You can really see though that the 3 or so days leading the 19th narrowly miss something extraordinary. -4 SD EPO burst sends a powerful compensating N/stream dive into the N/P ... meanwhile, there's a SW old trough fragment dangling there. Should said fragment get kicked E as the hemispheric torpedo is diving S the two are going to procreate history somewhere in the east. Sorry. Don't blame the messenger. Luckily for us .. .the JMA is the only model suggesting that happens.

Miserable runs for warm weather/spring enthusiasts -

no ...characterizing the MJO isn't supported with behavior observation - We've seen the phases robust in both 8-1-2 and 3-4-5 ... and the pattern hasn't been very well representative of its forcing during either era. Chaotic N/stream is passing in and out of states that "look" quasi coupled but it's really just because the peregrinations of said variability happens to be transiently passing through (circumstantially in the moment). There hemisphere is split above mid latitudes.

For the MJO crew ... your phasing over the next 10 days could not be more in diametrical correlation failure to the -EPO burst being presently agreed upon by the same models ( all of them...) that also have an MJO coverage. Hint, long words for wrong Priceless - The inability to couple anything is becoming so common ...I'm like, don't bother with NINO and MJO and AMOs and PDOs...

It was pretty isolated to township scales while neighboring had far less. It was not really regional scope - it was elevation dependent and/or relegate to N. I don't think anyone cogent or objective would have argued "10 days ago" that an elevation oriented storm would be out of the question. Also, that's not really a fair characterization the way you put that because those solutions 10 days ago had heavy snow event down here - that's more closely what was mocked, for a few reasons...all of which actually verified. By the way, the CFS and Euro are doing it again ... we'll perform the same test.

To be 20 deg over climo at 4 days ... Considering that's weighted toward climatology heavier out in time, that's possibly saying something. however - I'm still not very trusting of that outlook with a front being situated near by at this time of year. So we'll see -

What is interesting about the WAIS science is the aspect of momentum in the system. It is theorized that the faltering structural integrity continues for some time ... even if/when returning to the previous colder state of the ambient hemisphere. The reasoning behind: these so-called trigger points and threshold ... when they are crossed they're not linearly responsive in nature. They are problematically very difficult to actually reverse once that happens. Speaking very broad brushed conceptual, it is as though they fight against the change until the forcing becomes overwhelming ...then, "accept" the change all at once - the new paradigm than needs an equal opposing momentum to get the system in question to accept going back. At which point it is not really about regressing back to a prior state - we have to look at the return, not as a return, but as a whole new paradigm. It's a peculiar arithmetic at these very large systemic/planetary scales.

Btw ...I had a thought this morning. With this AI invasion into the et al technology of weather/environmental modeling, we may not have as much of the annoyance in waiting the extra hour for dissemination ? The delay may get offset. I'm wondering - It's probably just a matter of time before the American side adopts something similar to the ECMWF's goal.

Yeah ... I'd pump the breaks on warmth expectations N of NYC if you're willing to be objective/realistic. Based upon available guidance/indicators there-of-all, too dicey. You're not ever, in mid March, going to get certitude for warmth when there is a west to east oriented polar boundary aligned from roughly ORD to ALB to PWM. That's cutting things really, really close during a seasonal time of year where cold still tends to win those battles. Lord knows I want it. The preceding statement has nothing to do with my personal druthers on this week. But ... I don't tend to allow that sort of thing effect my judgement. If the ridge burgeons more and the modeling trend pushes said boundary another 200 clicks N, that'd help.

My "theory" on why that may be favored is two-fold. One ... simply put, the models bias amplitude wrt just about any/all facets out in time. Doesn't matter whether it's temp extremes (either direction), or the specter/size and amplitude of some cyclone, ...or just the governing synoptics that tote along these potentials itself, whatever you see on a D8 chart, it'll be some 5 ... 40% less than it's original specter when it's inside of 3 days. I don't know why that is so... It may just be an unavoidable artifact/emergent property of the technology. Two ... in mid March, seasonal forcing adds to that. The sun pulverizing air masses now on either side of the boundaries, and then mixing that ...changes the thermodynamic state of the hemisphere. Not sure why this is, but the models also for some reason can't handle this, either. They seem to take whatever thermal state of the hemisphere is in place per a particular initialization, and then as they process out in time ... what we are observing is their 'cleansing' the warmth out of the run - it's like they don't have physics in them for seasonal forcing ( a little tongue in cheek here). Whatever the cause... These two aspects make the amplitude and those ECM AI type solutions kind of in a boxing match with wisdom.

Pretty high likelihood that all you are seeing isnt all that uncommon in any given Euro run …if you were allowed to see it beyond 240 hrs.

awesome .... 2, top 5 futiles occurring back to back. That's hard to do. In fact, it's the only time that's happened - LOL. That should pretty underscore the number of "inches" the winter weather enthusiasts have been receiving - that's gotta be some kind of rock bottom.

No, ... it lapse over. If people were more cognizant, and as that article is quite implicitly correct ... reacting the way they should, the carry-on that goes on in here would be comprehensively different - and should be.

It frustrates me. Folk make it abundantly clear they are bargaining and or denying whatever they need in this 'weather satisfaction' game that goes on in here, and while they are parsing out who gets what based on their "narrative imaginations" ... meanwhile, this is your reality outside said imagination, https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/opinions/climate-scientist-scare-doom-anxiety-mcguire/index.html Now... nooormally I would not condone CNN sourcing for ...anything really. But unfortunately in this case those contained proportionality are likely more correct than not.

Unfortunately ... this season is likely to be a forced trough E of ~ Michigan longitude ... due to the enormous counter-balancing requirement when there is CC super-imposing over the orographic-induced N/A western ridge tendency. Those two will be in a constructive interference, a feed back which keeps our heights sagged here... This was last year and the year before ...and an apparent repeating theme going back summers. We'll be above normal because the lows are sultry mild ...but too many days are likely to be convective bubble offs by 11:30 am with DP of 77 under highs that can't get passed 84. I see it as less likely we get a "hot and dry" base-line tendency. It may actually be harder to get a heat wave officiated in the steam over the stove. But of course ...not impossible. It's probably why - as others have noticed ... - our hottest time typically occurs with an early western N/A heat expulsion in late May through June ...before the above takes over and we theta-e drowned.

Likely any such "day 11" Euro and ensemble et al amplitude winds up just suffering the same seasonal rug pull-out that this 11th system appears slated to - huge potential aloft, untappable because the lower troposphere is very challenged for thermal gradient in every direction. The 11th: there'll be a deep cyclone response, but it's missing too much cross sectional physics. So some wind and lighter QPF whirling thru. After season and sun and obviously dying winter work over the hemisphere ... what do you have left of the latter system? good luck Welcome to the four, Summer --> Autumn --> Winter --> Piece of shit seasons in New England

"Day 11" operational Euro has Steve's system... Good feature to watch to make sure we get butt banged in both directions: no winter when want winter; big winter when no longer want winter.

Because I am nerd ...the following appeals to me. Friday will be an interesting ( well, might be, sun depending -) challenge for machine/MOS to get the high temperature right. That looks like glass of powered bust, just add sun- juice. Light NW regional d-slope wind, with nearly unobstructed sun post the morning murk evaporation ... through 850's +2 or 3C. Mm, guessing the 51 at KFIT-KASH in both MAV/MET will be too conserved

Ha, JMA model ( yesterday's 12z over at Trop TBs) had a fierce winter storm with big snow implied. 'Course with that model's illustrations looking so coarse, combined with being bad -

12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air.

Summing all ... I would consider a mid latitude continent forced toward a 0 SD temperature anomaly distribution during the 15th through 25th. I.e., normal temperatures. Getting normal forced at any time span is, in a relative sense, like below normal? Think of what takes of a pattern to actually get that to happen. I've seen countless 'cold patterns' since 2010 end up being +0.05 ... even having a couple days in the nadir with knuckle aching air masses. I wouldn't be surprised, also ... if the flow begins to start relaxing out from underneath that pattern scaffold/well constructed R-wave look of that. I could see that end up more bowling event prone actually, within a vestigial look that matches.

Yeah ..I was going to mention the MJO in that diatribe I just leveled but ... the list-o-doubts was growing. I'm not huge fan of MJO inclusion though. We've seen its 'correlative coherence' too blurred in the past. Sometimes it's passing through some phase spaces with strength and panache and the hemisphere over eastern Pac and N/A continent doesn't seem to even be aware it was there. Like I've said a dozen times before ... the MJO is either a constructive or destructive modifier - it doesn't "drive" the patterns. That said, with failing cold/stormy patterns + March + CC ...all being factor-able considerations, a whopper MJO progression between phase 3.5 to 6.5 kinda maybe should be constructively asserting a warm result. Tough call... ensembles are like 30 members deep in weight so ... in deference to raw arithmetic density we have to table it -