Typhoon Tip

Euro restructuring it's late mid/ext range ... looks a lot more GFS oriented with important S/W space into the OV by D9... Obviously there's limited deterministic value in it... but, seeing as these solutions align with correlations on the pattern projections it's enough to at least mention.

this is why I was tellin folks not to ignore the 12th - it's still a longish shot, but the GFS is attempting to take a stab at a first pass in an increasingly favorable hemisphere with them 3 days there

There's an under the radar irony though - not to give neg head neuroticism another narrative ... But, this first two weeks of February is really whence the interquartile density of the historic cyclone frequency scatter plot is situated in time. So, we bi-pass that period with static inactivity instead. Kind of funny

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

GFS continues to offer its primitive early guess/suggestion for the first round -

right - ... nothing screams a stellar result for winter enthusiasts like a steady inject of warm thicknesses

Folks seem preoccupied with seeking big dawgs . The arriving +PNA saddle bagging the continental mid latitude flow can also result in a procession of middling events. Just sayn'

These recent GFS operational runs are (imho) taking a primitive stab at an event. The last three cycles have landed on the 12th, 14th and 15th ... but it's not abundantly clear whether it's just alternating the timing of the same mechanical wave space from ...wherever in the hell the model is sniffing that out. As I was describing in a PM this morning ... technically the pure statistical inference allows for field activation from the 11th on. We local time scale nadir the PNA, but it starts rising right away. The GFS tends to be 'rushy' anyway, so ..if I were going to pistol select a date in that range I'd lean 15th/17th. What is interesting though, we have been plagued by fast hemispheres for years really. SO the GFS is kind of enabled within its own bias? something like that... So, we could see an entrance system in the +d(pNA) slope, then move up and help implode the JB coupled SPV with the western Canadian ridge. Then a more powerful ... perhaps even planetary scaled signal evolves out of that... speculative.

HA ha hahaha. Like we needed a folklore of any kind to tell us that was likely.

The general ambit of the scientific community has employed methods for corroborative data ( from disparate sourcing...) for hundreds of years. From Biology to Geology to Deep Field Astronomy, to Quantum Mechanics... Meteorology, Hydrology ... any disciplinary study that passes through accreditation has corroborated empirical evidence/data. Einstein paced while, " In 1922 an expedition was undertaken to obtain photographs, taken during an eclipse of the sun, from which the bending of light as it passed by a massive body such as the sun could be measured. Such measurements were required to test Einstein's newly proposed Theory of Relativity " As it were ... measurements taken of the position of Mercury showed errors in reality that Newtonian physics could not predict, until application of the GTR (Einsteinian) precisely predicted the actual position. Probably butchering this a little but this is a already completely wrong for a February thread LOL That's just one example. The point is, the necessity to corroborate from unaffiliated sources has always been there. There really is no "why is your data more pertinent than mine" - that's not intrinsic in how accredited science operates. Climate change is soaked with corroborated data - which makes its disposal ( at all ...) therefore all the more intriguing. There are couple of primary reasons for that intrigue that are competing [for greatest cause of our extinction, tongue goes into cheek ] The first of which is, ... we deny because we can - I strongly suspect that is an enabled one. It is enabled because the specter of CC has been too silent for it's slow moving nature, until very recently ... , to penetrate the soft luxury of a provisional state. Like all species on our planet, human beings formulate their understanding of their environs vis-a-vis what is perceivable through the 5 senses. You know ...? sight sound taste touch smell. These are "USB ports" that connect us with the universal CPU. We just have self-imposed evolved a "filtration virus" in the form of convenience addling by everything that occurs inside the Industrial bubble; the same machinery that is toxifying the planet ( not just CC, there's other reasons that will kill you related to everything from PFAs to mircro plastics ...etc... all of it ), also prevents its harm from getting into these USB ports. It's created a false universe of safety inside the grander system that allows it to even exist. Sounds an awful lot like a virus, huh? Hence, people deny because they can ... or are being allowed to, unwittingly. The other reason ( which may have some partial causal relationship with first aspect above...) is that the issue surrounding climate change became politicized decades ago. ... thus has became a target of distrusting. That is the entrance to a rabbit hole of irreconcilable rages, because no one's political view ever succeeded in changing another one's political view without a war.

Feb 8 at 40 N so it's probably 10th or so by us.. That's when we start eating snow banks ( ...what the f* is a "snow bank" right ?) even in cold air. You get the 'shard' look - not the be mistaken with the "shart look" hahahaha. If the wind is very low and there's ample sun, it's a great time to sit on a park bench, or stroll slowly down the street. It can be 35F in the ambient temperature but you feel a kind of warm nucleus surrounding you - it's an interesting dichotomy. Very fragile. The slightest zephyr penetrates and then you get a bit of a bite breeze to ( ...you guessed it!) the nape region. HAHAHAHA. And of course, Ray's fAvorite effect ...the interior of a cars parked in the open start roasting inside - this latter one interesting, because it's pretty differentiably noticeable more between the 5th and 10th. The graphical slope of watts/m2 begins to tip abruptly more steep around that perennial date.

You think that FIT 20.7" is a mythical slanter. LOL ... Seems a bit of an outlier, though -

Yup - entering the time of year when well mixed atmosphere's through which > 70% solar, machine interpolations will routinely bust too cool to varying amounts. I've never fully understood why that is the case ... I suspect it's related to weighting toward climatology, the farther out in time the technology does the calculation. But, if you take a dry adiabatic day at +5 C in May and soak it fully sun and WSW flow, MOS leans low

And by the way… Elevated storage of atmospheric water vapor is the first thing the most primitive climate models began predicting, and that prediction has only gotten more excessive over the sophistication of the science/decades.

And then we have a real volcanic eruption …I don’t know … ME6 or 7, having successfully cooled the planet already by a degree and a half when it happens… - If they’re already launching balloons then we’re already doing panic solutions

They’ll be panic measures …rushed out of necessity because like what’s happening in the last year and a half showed us fools, this shit show can go through accelerations that nobody thought were believable. Maybe it’ll work, but it would be a race. And as resources become abruptly scarce because of proverbial firewall events …too difficult and expensive …crops fail on macro scales, food shortages, death in heat waves that exceed projections …runs on banks, social structures destabilize ultimately become untethered and untenable, social order finally dissolves. Book of Eli finally, we understand why for the Fermian Paradox

That’s extremely difficult to get +5 out of any month frankly. I mean it’s easier to do it in winter like we’ve been discussing duh but I’m still impressed with that whenever it exceeds five.

And not to be holier than thou sounding … Which, admittedly, this may come across like that but I am quite serious: for those of us who are very sensitive to differentiation because we’ve been so passionately involved in weather and climate since we first garnered memories on and of this planet… this stuff was becoming apparent in the early 2000s … It’s just that now the examples are becoming too gross to ignore. I think that what’s catching people offguard is what nobody expected and that is that we are getting these spike events. Like what happened pan-planet over the last year, when the oceans up and soared … everywhere. All latitudes by a full degree Celsius. Then we shattered every monthly air temperature - it was like a heat flash on a planetary scale. Well, guess what the ocean haven’t cooled off… in fact rose further snd just set another record. I mean we’re like sitting in a frying pan trying to convince ourselves it’s not hot I mean how fucking dumb and retarded this has become. Pan of frogs

We’ve had two weeks worth of it down here. I mean we just had like three days in a row when highs stayed below freezing …,nights single digits. My guess is it wasn’t warmer up there than it was down here? It also happened about Two weeks before that. So I think it’s been colder than last year in terms of just getting any but I might be wrong there.

Here … if this helps, Alberta Clipper A fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is called a "Saskatchewan Screamer".

How is something that cannot incur harm a “threat”

Why isn’t this pinned ?

watch it

The thing is, once we get out post 300 and especially 360 hours, we approach what I call the "coherency horizon" - just means that beyond that, there's zip skill and the flow tends to start looking rather annular as the westerlies direction becomes the only aspect that remains (artifact of ensembles in every direction)/N input. However, in this case there's an emergence of that powerful +PNA ... ironically, in all ens means - which makes it unusually more coherent than we would normally see at that range. It's really interesing.. long ass slog before we can start picking specific events out the noise. But to have the more typically entropic range look so structured is really fantastic. Ha... it seems we keep upping the ante on what is wasted, huh. j /k

... I mean the reason I wrote that tongue-in-cheek just then is because I'm trying to figure out what the mania in here is about? It really seems in all seriousness like there's a "mood dysfunctionalilty" that is completely triggered by the fact that there isn't a big presentation on any operational guidance cinema. I really do wonder if a single run changes that