Typhoon Tip

M'yeah the more I look at this ... the more I'm seeing the origin of problems over more vs less phasing potential is actually coming from the transitive influence of the E. Pac flow relay. It's sending negative interference downstream during present era of modeling cycle trends. Not saying it goes on to be the final... I've seen these things correct from this range. unknown. But that's it, no question. So this is more of a scaffolding of the entire flow structure, at continental/hemipheric scale issue. We are simply not generating enough of a R-wave ridge signature over western N/A .. under cutting the -EPO ridge (speaking to the operational's handling) is bad in this case. This below ? Is a piece of utter shit ... very little/zero means to force wave space coalescence down stream

You know dude... what's happening there ( imho ) is that the ridging over the Pac NW/B.C. region is actually growing, but doing so at the same rate as the N/stream S/W is actually attenuating in time. It's like we're creating the scaffolding for a better phase result, but the N/stream S/W relay from ...where ever that is originating being weaker and weaker, there's no diving wind max enough to "take advantage of it".

well .. yeah .. fits the CC modeling - the variability was always hit hard in what even the primitive models always put out. Now we're living it and going 'what the f is all this short term variability' ... humans are an interesting walking talking diametric super position of utter genius and astounding beauty at the same quantum space and time of cartoon stupidity and hideously disregard-able personal ugliness'

Yeah, for me the greater experimentation value is/was the verification of a storm on the index inflection - 13th is the steepest part of the graphical projections from the big three. That much seems fine at this point. The snow vs rain and where ... how much? Jesus Christ. Tele's say batten down the hatches. The operational runs are windshield wiper events at times even dim sunners. heh it may turn out the only major impact is the pain the neck this caused? Who knows. There is some availability to a colder solution though. I outlined this earlier, but I'm not actually too put out by these warm GGEM type washes... they're likely both deep layer wrong, and then also considering the native model bias ...etc of some of these tools to be warm BLs. I'm more intrigued in whether we hit the key-hole lat/lon because there's marginal but enough cold to make due if we can hit that. It's not impossible just yet that we do or don't either way. All the while, this thing has back ground arguments for being way more impressive anyway - that part's a separate frustration. If it got more amped and N/streamy-like ... no question to me that someone gets pretty damn white -

Yeah I've been more than less crooning that aspect for a few days, actually. The operational runs across the board are to varying degrees, not representative of the index calculations that originate from their own ens systems. It's weird. You know ( ...risking poking the hornet's nest here - ), if this corrected suddenly way more amped in the last 72 hours because the western N/A ridge is suddenly more represented and that triggers an N/stream canonical dive through MN ( like the GF-f'um S actually had two nights ago for f-sake), I would not be surprised. But it may not... you know, one sore rub about this stuff is that anomalies relative to the larger ongoing anomaly, do sometimes take place. But your right as rain on that look there. That's like a straight up zonal progressive rake by the operational run that is almost diametric to the principle of a increasing meridian flow associated with said ens derived index handling. Interesting. It's not just the GFS doing this though. All the other operational models appears to be guilty of this to some degree more coherent or less. They're all shirky looking- GFS is just most egregious as of late.

Fwiw, the Euro and UK are a better fit for the +d(PNA). In fact ... there's only been a couple model cycles out of the last several day's worth that really fit the general index manifold This entire erstwhile handling has been rather depressingly conserved. Always on the low-end representation of the correlation. I wonder if the EPS is attempting, though. .. I see the 0z mean with a sub 988 at D5.5 pretty well nucleated to the the proper climate location; and it still has those spread members indicating bomb depths or close to it. Not sure if some of those individual members have more N/stream involvement but probably. The 00z Euro operational was the best current compromised solution between the index argument, vs the lack-representation in the guidance. A low in the process of deepening below 985 mb while sliding under L.I. in route to just SE of ACK, with the 850 mb isotherms S of PVD ... Boy, the index imply a major - if only.

So it’s official then… This is officially a worse stretch than the 1980s. That is …. incredible LOL

It’s kind of the unmanned fire hose

It's a step back in coherency from what I'm seeing - not hugely so... It could easily be "giga" motions en route to some final scenario. I mean that's highly likely true, anyway. But the N/stream S/W vanished after being better sampled spanning a couple cycles. Not a big trusting fan of sudden abatement - suspicious. That' not typically what happens. Attenuation is another thing... I traced that back in the source, and it's unfortunately originating over/~ the Date Line X N. Pac from that progressive trough approaching the Aleutians... ... I don't know how well the flow/features are assimilated or sampled over there, but that doesn't strike me as high confidence handling - considering that initially the flow is on the flat side and progressive out there, and has to then relay into a flow in the processes of transitioning into a meridian look. I think it's possible we deal with these peregrinations for a couple more days frankly.

No, you got it... that's exactly the right read. I'm not sure we should sans the N/stream involvement just yet. There's a lot of time blah blah, but unfortunately that's true. We'd like the 06z solution this morning to have been 72 hours from now, but ... this is what we get in a pattern that is both trying to transition toward a slower more meridian character, as well as switching R-wave modes ( --> +d(PNA) ) Models are not going to do their best work in those regimes. I'm still middle confidence we're dealing with a significant system - I'm low confidence at how high or below middling scale that will be. Also, it's perfectly fine for if ALB-Brian to Dryslot to steal the magic on this - they're part of our forum ... Speaking to the general audience here.

Could not be more cut and clear what's different between the GFS of 18z and the prior two runs. This version doesn't have the N/stream tucking into and phasing over MN during Monday. Remove that we get this purer S stream result. Add it you gut a dynamic juggernaut with more prolific output. But this version is fine. I'd like to remind folks that confidence was set at medium for this event. You seem to be mentally deficient to actually read and react base upon what was actually written. Then you say things like "Tip threads" and "poor guy" ... you know. First of all, every thread I've started in the past 3 years has been > 75% correct at long leads, and some were remarkable at ranges of 7 to even 10 days. Some of you are bit too brash/rude and don't paint a very good picture of yourselves... Plebeian witted

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point. It's that bad - wtf

OT but in the winter of 2000 (might have been 2001) I saw pictures of snow pack up there to 12’ or more, with whole homes tented over at the far end of canyons of white.

I put the odds at > 50% the EPS mean looks comparable to the last cycle ...with secondary probability > 50 % that it actually looks even better.

Given the deep layer mechanics going on at the time ( as is and of course subject to change from this range...blah blah blah-blah blah) that 156 hour panel is 3-5"/hr thundersnow between ORH and ASH. It could rain .75" inches and they'd still clock a foot after the change over... then, another 2 to 3" over the 6 hour mortality of the event

I know - funny

Nah, my take on the GEFs is that y'all missin the boat on the most important aspects ...which in fact add to the general probability make-up of this thing. Let's first get this into higher confidence before we divvy out cosmic dildo inches to whom ? That defense posturing psycho-babble gets tiring - it's okay in funny/small/sardonic doses but do we have to wade through people's mental sludge for 6 f'um days? This mean is in fact 2 to perhaps 4 mb deeper per interval comparing to the 06z/prior spread. It also has less spread indicated, with a more of an even dispersal of 980 or lower members. The mean is parked over the climate dot for bigger events between NYC and PWM 12z this next Tuesday... at which time the 850 mb temperature is S of PVD. That's just about as far as we need to focus for now.

Compromising two solutions that are likely wrong/'iffy' at best to begin with is tantamount to 'two wrongs not making a right' no?

Not sure where this is coming from ? well there's not a lot of conceptual awareness of synoptic Meteorology ( haha, you think -) going on there. Obviously just knee-jerk defensive psychobabble it's all good. It's a human engagement. There's obviously a chance this could go NW and become a bigger ordeal up that way... sure. It's non-zero. I agree re either direction. But the 'oh god oh no ' comes off as little too codependent on model cinema. jeez

Started a thread for what I feel is more a lack-luster operational performance issue that is not really been representative of the immense potential of this period of time. I kept it at medium confidence - mainly in deference to aspects like exactly where this evolves an impact is still highly negotiable. I think there's higher likelihood that cyclogen emerges and provided plenty of contextual arguments to support that. But you know... a medium to major winter cyclone could move too far SE ... or evolve too late... there's all that to iron out.

Hey folks.. Similar to priors this season ... we are only just medium confidence for this event coverage ( I mean that relative to outlook standards at D5-7), perhaps owning to this still being 6.5+ days away, notwithstanding. The simple worded version: the techniques/recognition/experience tells me we have crossed the threshold into high enough confidence to elevate the 13th for focused awareness. Part of the significance of which is that it has an unusually high ceiling for maximization due to being footed by leading planetary -scaled index modalities. That sort of brings a smoldering urgency to do so earlier - but please don't mistake that as aggrandizing or 'plugging' for the drama. Some techniques: 1 the numerical teleonnector/graphical projection from all three, EPS/GGEM/GEFS ensemble sources. A robust pattern acceleration toward +PNA actually begins this week, but takes off and approaches +2 standard deviations between the 15th and 17th. The places the 11th -15th as the 'inflection' along that index's modulation - while these indexes are changing tends to be ( but not always ) the sweet spot for a corrective event. If the PNA were to rise and statically remain elevated, you can actually get into more stable regimes with more smaller sub-index scaled dosing ( haha). Anyway, the ceiling elevation comes from the notion that erstwhile depictions for this by the operational guidance have, to date, been deep lows but situated too far SE in their illustrations, or even 'cyclone smears' ... both circumstantially evolved because the models are not creating enough meridian flow orientation. That would be fine in and of itself, but that is not really very well supported by #2 below 2 this is key ... the actual pattern layout by the operational runs has not represented the canonical +PNA --> +PNAP flow orientation, at least not very well. Overnight ... that subtly but perhaps crucially changed/improved. More coherently now,...the operational versions have an arced over top 'dump in' delivery look out of the high latitude NE Pacific and NW Territories. It might be that we are on the verge of the modeling organizing a more proficient phasing environment. Remains to be seen. The previous versions were stretching the flow in the W-E velocity direction, particularly true over the last several cycles of the GFS ... showing a S/stream wave space out running the N/stream. However, the 06z GFS shows how just a little more total R-wave curved structure transmitting from upstream, immediate results in a bombogenesis scenario - whether this guidance cycle turns holy or not, the take away is the demo of, if not nod toward, correcting the erstwhile W-E bias in the modeled flow behavior toward one that is favored by the telecon spread. So with that, ...here's some charts. Ens of 00Z Euro and 06z GEFs - note: the spread region is along the NW arc, within which there are lows that are unsually deep relative to the 998. That excessive amount of deviation from the mean is indicative of the modeling physics at least being aware that the untapped potential/thus higher ceiling is in there. This could come into shorter range as a major, notwithstanding. And for the eye-candy that I feel is more than mere sweet.. This has some physical plausibility that is connected to the above discussion. I get the feeling there's been some "falsely lack-luster" performance on this, ... perhaps thus far. But we'll see on that. I'll use what is obviously already been seen ( no doubt!) by most. Again, I emphasize, medium confidence over all, but ... the upside higher ceiling is very real based on what I believe is a strong argument. It is just possible that a major cyclone or even "bomb" manifests and just misses like a dystopian horror story known as 1987 ( don't get me started on that f'n storm )

I'm late on looking at stuff by Jebus what an improvement on the 12z EPS mean. There's got to be some violent bombs in there - I mean whats with the sub-960 cluster between Boston Light and PSM? What it is is that the N/stream got to be phasing on some of those runs.

What's with all the yellow snow -

first it gets warm, then it gets cold. boom

heh lemme get this straight. 5 different models produced 5 entirely different solutions for the 13-15th sounds 'bout right for D7, huh