Typhoon Tip

That looks like the models are tapping into winter mechanics for that. we'll see

Strange ... the GLAAM outlook from the CF model cluster would indeed suggest mid latitude expansion of subtropical ridging ... (really an polaward HC boundary migration) while the numerical teleconnectors (based off the global numerical ensemble systems, all 3, are going bonkers with this +PNA) - that attempts to deny the +AAM. +AAM modulates away from meridian flow transports in lieu of longitudinal, yet this... And it's more than this just transiently passing through this construct around that time interval ... the ensemble means set this up D8 and run it out to the annular finish at D15 still harboring a hint of the OV nadir there. Bit of a diametric indication going on.

especially from ~ Dec 1 to March 1

Doesn't seem like we're getting out the later evening without an inch drink ...give or take.

Fwiw - the warm boundary punch back across this end of Rt 2 around 1/2 hr ago. We were 61 at 2pm and about 63 at 3:30 when I hit the gym. I walked out of the gym 20 minutes ago and it was noticeably changed. It's now 67 but 70 F is just S and we presently rising. The wind switched S and the cloud deck is higher with warm type nimbus. It was slate gray before

Farmers in the Midwest love late snow. It’s called “ farmers Gold”. Snow on the ground may not do much to impede anything. In fact if anything, it’s only excreting nitrogen into the soil

right ...keep a storage for this

Maybe relative to climo ? ...I mean I don't know. Just askin' I can tell you that 113, certainly if repeating, is unusual for May even for them.

I think it's perfect with the breeze. It's value-add. It reminds me of a perfectly tempered swimming pool in the air.

Could be a wake up call to get off the processed foods and eat more wholesome organic veggies and pure low saturated fat meat sources, combined with a lifestyle coach for work outs and sleeping, huh. heh Which by the way, RIP Morgan Spurlock. ...speaking of the Industrial Food Complex ... he was the guy that wrote, directed, and starred in "Super Size Me," a info-drama where he dedicated 30 straight days of eating nothing by McDonald's. There was also a sidecar requirement that he had to finish every meal. Including when asked if he wanted to be supersized, he had to say yes... etc. Processed food is significantly correlated with cancer ..etc.

82/48

I'm not sure the "marine heat wave" phenomenon works for the Great Lakes the same way. Great Lakes thermal storage has a different response to physical stressing. They may be considered the same but my personal ( perhaps semantic, fine - ) take on that is that because the causal geophysical roots cannot really compare, they shouldn't be dubbed the same way ( if that is the case...). Just sayn lol The marine aspects out amid the total expanse of the 'oceanic hemisphere' are a synergy resulting from geophysical inputs that cannot ever apply to the Great Lakes. For one thing... time and mass -related different responses to stress factors makes the comparison less so. For example, wind stressing on the Lakes can literally slosh the surface and thermocline depths, complete obliterating the previous state in a single event. As a result of these so-called "over turning" occurrences, it's not uncommon for beaches along Lake Michigan's eastern shores to plummet from 75+F, all the way to the mid 50s, even in mid summer ... due to strong short duration wind events... Derechos, be they late summer canonical first fronts ...etc. The stuff we're discuss out among the oceans has to do with OHE loading and mass quantities that exceed the single capacity of a local timescale wind stressing events. They are a combination of a reducing evaporation rate in the total integral of the oceanic-atmopheric coupling, which lower evaporation is a warming influence, combined with changes in the circulation footprint - which this latter is redistributing the wind stressing pattern as part of CC. Those warm pools thus can and will maintain a 'heredity' of that truer longer term more dominating aspect.

Sneaky diurnal range contender today... Refreshing 53 for a low and it's 80 after an explosive morning temperature response to this ultra purified air really allowing max insolation. To rise 27 F before 10 am is impressive. Probably we'll hit the bounce temperatures sooner than normal ... but, there's a dry boundary coming down this afternoon backing the the light wind from W to more NW, which is some d-slope compression too. As an aside, this is the lowest smoke contaminated atmosphere at continental scales that I personally recall since 2020

Maybe you won't have to wait too long should this p.o.s. end up being the settling state

Can't just let us have an above normal week... it's got go out of the way to correct cold.

Oh 70 DP ...where have you been. We may see some brightening/dim sun spreading E throughout the afternoon.

aaahhh... I'm temped to proffer a CC connection there. Not sure we're necessarily going to balance things out with a "span of years" in this case. We can have a summer and/or winter of old, still, but the return rates are stretching. Just my suspicion -

I think you're visualizing a synopsis that has been increasingly rarefied over the last 10 or 12 years ... What is becoming more prevalent during summers: early heat of varying but ultimately unremarkable stature, followed a weakness at mid levels ( when not an actual trough) becoming Rossby stuck along 90W. This has been causing stagnated theta-e positive anomalies at llvs, but because of that total wholesale construct, EML expulsion can't get much E of Detroit before deflecting south. Over here on the E side of said axis, 84/78 putrid black mold air stagnatie has has been mid summer favored. Obviously that is not/has not been true at all times - people have to be nuanced in thinking along gradations and tendency - a tendency to do so, increasing... I'm waiting to see if that emerges again.

Yeah a lot of this was diurnally assisted. As the suns come up over the realm that halts the radiative cloud top cooling related destabilizing factor- which is elevated instability. That may account for some weakening look to the satellite. Warning's allowed to expire. I have dim sun through vil debris, and rad looks like nothing is getting this far N in Mass. Probably, this all slides off by 1pm looking at translation rate on sat, and then we'll see if we can muster sfc based instability associated with the front. etc... These morning convection things can get in the way of things.

Haven't looked at much but knee jerk reaction to radar trends, ... this isn't doing much today N of about Meriden CT. ... even though there is no warm front being analyzed by WPC... the stuff in SE Mass included with the warned cell entering SW CT and extending back W along that axis, smacks as some sort of boundary. It may be theta-e but I'm venturing that idea without looking. In general, sending anvil debris and light rain N of that ~ axis may not end well for them

which by the way ... I don't normally access that data source. Did Boston/Logon really trace snow on 3 different occasions last month ?

yeah about like yesterday. altho more intense/unadulterated sun on the shoulders adds

np here