Typhoon Tip

Without even looking at snow products it’s probably 16

Yeah Icon implicated a dangerous storm for several hrs Tue afternoon over everywhere east of ORH

Little bit of paranoid nerviness going on ... It might have done some folks some good to have lived through the 1980s. They might be a little more iron hulled to these sort of minutia model hip checks. lol 'magine going 3 days of duck and cover ticker warning messages about cryo dystopia bombs only to wake up to 9 F with sun dimly visible on the morning of the "apocalypse"

There's hints there of concentric bands ...that's weaker frontogenic band paralleling that extends roughly MTW to N. Adams up there. Probably a solid band of moderate pivoting in position out there for a 3 or so hours. Greenfield may end up in a gravity well.

Not to be an ass but I really wasn't sure why folks were assessing that. I just read "yeah and not much wind" ...I was looking at a 982 mb low ESE of of LI going really?

yeah all these run cycles are doing are putting out wobble versions ... All solutions within a narrowing goal post range are really still valid, but as long as the run in hand doesn't go out side the posts it just 'giga' motions. I think it's interesting that the global models are in agreement and it is the mesos this time that are having trouble getting on board. The 6-14" Jan 7 event was the other way around.

I'm actually surprised HFD isn't inside the 12" line from what I saw of that run... But, the other school is that Tolland is also safely left out of the party/cool kids which makes a great deal of intuitive sense so yeah...

That la-la range of the Euro ends in an exotic mise en science

That N arc of this cyclone is maturing while the circulation is leaving the Bite water area which puts ~ E CT-SE NH deep into it IN TIME for a change... Not sure you can move a sub 980 mb low across the lower Islands without a wind burst into the eastern 1/3 of SNE. 2-M temps crash from 32 to 25 for places like Lowell down to Holden and Worcester while there's heavy fall rates that are highly correlated when crossing up the 850 -- 700mb flow directions creating all kind of positive shear inducing lift. At that time there's a coherent 300 mb entrance region fanning out at between 66 and 78 hours - no wonder a massive QPF loaded CCB head is passing through. This Euro run is just a text book for heavy snow from HFD-BED. I'm seeing very similar structures/arguments in the recent GFS runs too. Also, not sure there's enough time for wind momentum transfer but there is an astro high tide(s) Monday and Tuesday .. I think that 1pm one on Tuesday might be vulnerable.

I didn't think so but shit if the Euro isn't trying for a 16" in just 4 or 5 hours here. wow. It's got an absolute PWAT loaded CCB clearly channeling from ~ Marblehead to Framingham, with strong winds now too.

I'm behind on everything but the new Euro looks like someone between Danvers/Waltham to PVD over to Milton could be near B conditions for a couple of hours...

yeah... late to the party but I cursory scanned a lot of hand wringing over the NAM at beyond 72 hours. head scratch

This reminds me of an early November air mass the last 24 hours. 54 yesterday was the ping high but it was more likely 52-ish in the ambience. Then it was down to 29 this AM with lots of frost... Now, we're supposedly heading for 60 F - apparently a record out at Logan. But considering the record highs we've seen take place over the last 7 years in February's ... kind of seems like a low bar achievement. lol. Anyway, it's not a warm burst" event to make 60 out of today if you ask me. Not when there's frost in the morning... It's just a mild up - Overnight we fropa but 850's only down to 0C ... I've seen 60 F over snow pack with and 850 mb of 0C in mid February. Tomorrow seems like an easy MOS buster day... feeble wind from 300 ds degs at 8 knots, and zip cloud ... screams super -adiabatic highs. I'm just suggesting that we'll probably still eclipse 50 and might send sun-exposed "nook temperatures" pretty warm relative to the ambience - ... I know, only an excruciating nerd thinks about this kind of tedium but that's how I roll. I have a fetish about this stuff from mid Feb to early May. What can I say. Tomorrow night is when it gets cold. Tomorrow sets the area up with a prep atmosphere...and when the sun goes down we quickly hemorrhage the gossamer BL warmth to space. It'll be something like mid 20s over top low DPs. That's our event entrance air mass... Man, saturate that and if anything, the models are too warm in BL. ..which is a better performance than we've seen in recent years. I don't know what's going on later in the week with that clipper/"critter" idea ..seems to have vanished. Meh... it was fragile to begin with so no expectations on that. In fact, the pattern remains rife with potential out there between the 19th and 26th or so... It a good period for speculation - we just don't have much of an emerged system. But that's the thing with featureless volatility ... if the models realize something and inject it into that domain, outlooks can change rather quickly... So when we say 20th or 24th or 27th ...these just periods to watch for that. But that's an energetic flow with lots of hydrostatic gradient N/S through the mid latitude continent - it's higher octane. Get a load of the 00z Euro with -30 to -38 C at 850 mb over southern Canada out there at the end of the run. That region SE of there that has that open COL look? That's a placeholder just anxiously waiting for a one of those features to be injected into it like a 16 year-old waits for the panty's to uncling

By fall rates? perhaps .. I'm thinking 12" might be more common due to speed of system translation. Maybe a couple 13.5ers for bragging rights.. which technically justifies the top side of that range but the interquartile density/distribution is 12" Now, someone pops one of those zomb 7" hours with a couple of CG .. that makes that easier. But I'm not sure CSI is very factor-able being on the left exit-left entrance side of the jet. 12" in 4 hours is good stomp and I don't see the heaviest axis lasting very long in any location ... in and out. It's likely to go down hill outside really fast. You see it start snowing so you run out to the store, and by the time your coming home your wondering if that was such a good idea type visibility problems. The lifting mechanics will move in/through quite fast

It's impressive how persistent that's been in the guidance considering it's a torpedo in the N/stream ...tracing back it's coming from Siberia. Like how in the f is the modeling doing that ? But.. I wouldn't begin to speculate who gets what and where in that. "Little critters that Bite" bite because of the erratic/unpredictability of their nature. just sayn'

It's a tad more amplified ... but as far as stream interaction it's about right on queue from the previous/extrapolation - it's a partial deal. The N/stream is sagging and that "tips" the flow more n out ahead ...which lifts the everything in latitude. This is would probably go on to being a somewhat more prolific impact at least to NYC/CT/RI as a guesstimate

Doubt it will be that mild... but if the sun did come out in time, yeah ... steam dogs on sunny sides of roof tops. But it may also be breezier than we think. This this thing's heading below 980 mb prior to 70 W so there may be a bit of wind for a couple of hours as this is ending, too.

Notable, Dec 9 2005 leveled 15" in Acton ( about 25 mi W of Boston), a foot of which fell in 3 hours... There were two concentric bands that snowed S++ back then, with visibility down to that not seen since the Dec 23 1997 'snow bomb' event. Basically < 50 feet. About 1/4 mi vis between the meso bands. SO it was a 50 feet --> 1/4 mi --> 50 feet = 12"

I agree with Ray. This is a rather impressive analog just on the scratch surface appeal, between the ICON/Euro blend ( or just Euro below), vs Dec 9 2005. Both events moving swiftly... right down to the sun set likely visible in the evening of this one, just like that one back whence. I mean the NCEP Library version (left) may as well be one of the present Euro ensemble members of today -

Man, no shit ... S+ low visibility at dawn ... sun shining by 2pm

Ha! word but you know... I was thinkin' might be the first time we've successfully witnessed "snow on snow" take place since several seasons? I mean if that continues to evolve. It seems we always interlude a melt back or some sort of pack correction warming between events since really 2015... I might not be right about that but it feels that way, anywho

Mm what y'all who posted about the CMC neglected to mention is that it was a significant N/W trend compared to the previous cycle.. Also slightly slower - I'd say that is a nod in favor of these late corrections we're seeing from its peers. Easy to imagine the next run just doing so even more.

Actually a little more than a mere critter on this run - implied southern/SE NH

I think it should be pretty obvious by now... I don't typically like to be involved in that 'are they or are they not' intention stuff... but given the large sample size. Plus, ...I reserve the right to "troll the synoptics" itself when the snarky mood strikes me as unbearable. LOL No but ... if this is that obvious from a given source, an institutional culture of disregarding the source ...it just reduces it to negligible noise and is treated that way. But for some reason, people keep trying to engage in opposition to the antics, which is most likely what the perp wants them to do. It's not rocket science. Solution? don't -