Typhoon Tip

Don't get me started on the "flood wick" that began setting last June ... 'Magine if a Mother's Day 2005 came back over a broader region than just Merrimack headwaters now? - changing the subject a little going down the flood talk but ( sorry ) I have a flood fetish in my dystopian dream book for tree tops and tele' poles sticking out of water with people sitting on roof-tops. LOL. No but I do find them fascinating. I've often thought ... our geology's overriding topography is very old and determined. It seems the run-out channels are so deeply established that once we get to a certain flood amount, it really can't get higher because the adjoining flood plains are fixed. The elevations rise out side of those, too much. The flood mass would have to be factors of 3 or 4, which then requires a 1,000 year return rate or something. Anyway, we don't "bible flood" that often. Humanity's taken to building towns and neighborhood amid the 1::200 year event zones, simply because that's just long enough to have verdant pastoral/usable/attractive land for a multitude reasons. But every 1000 years ...? About 7 or 8 years ago ... there was hired geologists doing well taps on my street and around this side of town. We set over the water shed off the old Military base, Fort Devens, which had a landfill that dump Military grade chemistry for decades in the middle part of last century. In this case, Arsenic 6 was suspected in the ground going down deep. SO, they were hired to sample to determine the extent of the issue before Ayer becomes the next Flint, MI. Turns out ... the town water itself ( which I am connected to thank goodness) is unaffected but any dude with a well around here is probably either down to 1 testicle or has grown a 3rd by now... While they were on my street ... I ambled out there with a cup of joe and struck up a conversation. The woman said, "You know ...the extracted material we are plumbing up in these tap wells all over this side of town is consistent with alluvial plainer material, going down some 90 feet." Her eye brow was raised over a subtle squint like she was working something out... Of course that drove me to ask further. "...Yeah that means this region spends a significant amount of it geological history under water. Probably, I don't know, once every 500 years?" SO Ayer sets in the heart of the Nashoba Valley. In fact, the river of the same name cuts through the township. This whole region is originally just one such verdant attraction - There's probably a lot of these types of lost regions that are in long wait of an extraordinary headline. Not just here in the Nashoba Valley. Concord has a river that is similar. So does Sudbury ..etc etc...

Bingo! It's a perfect "execution" loop

I'm looking at a modeled tapestry that fits the late Feb thru mid April leitmotif that goes back many winter season end-of-life scenarios Significant, if not major warm up, during the first week of March is gathering some presentation in both the modeled dailies, but also is backed by telecon spread/projections. As that breaks down ... the tropospheric bulk warmth that was generated by larger scaled feed-backs and increasing solar contribution et al, progresses out of the eastern continent and is delivered to higher latitudes. As it arrives up there ... it may superimpose over a background tendency for blocking to emerge ( ...no, I do not believe any said blocking is related to SSWs. Different discussion). This is where the outlook gets really dicey for warm enthusiasts around mid March. This could mean all kind of different possible things to the daily weather charts - there's no way to cogently speculate for now. Whatever comes of that, the light wind balmed out ridge utopia like the Canadian GGEM ... I would not guess that look remains the same after 7th ... 10th. In basic principle, unless 2012 is showing up ...it would be unlikely that persists, that early in the spring, anyway. I would suggest overall that the spring is above normal and that any possible mid March regression doesn't characterize total.

With SST's < 79 F in that area, and OHE at the perennial nadir, ... and just because it's at 384 hours when its doing that ( LOL ) ... it's largely more likely not a reflection of the environment, and more an indictment of the model physics itself. It's actually a good case study op for the modeler/engineers at NCEP, because it is at the boundaries of plausibility where the best testing opportunities for any model that predicts any system in nature ( for that matter) exists. Personally I suggest it is actually a better indicator for the characterization of the mid latitude circulation type. Because when you move a -PNA -related ridge tendency, mid and upper level, through the eastern continent over top in latitude, that naturally produces a favorable circulation realm over the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mex and the Bahamas - ..the GFS "might" be right about that general synoptic scaffold at the larger scale, within which it is then too fastidiously sensitive in spinning up cyclones when the baser physical parametrics, such as thermal states, are feeble like that.

Mary Jane ?

Yeah, again ... I just don't recall that activity - like me grandma always used to say, if you forgot what you wanted to say, it probably wasn't that important. Something similar applies to memory generation? ... those were probably forgettable. I was living on campus at UML; there may have been regional lucky little hit zones ... elsewhere or whatever. To me, that winter was the Dec twins, and the April 1st events - with a rat between.

GFS has been just frustratingly abstinent to it's own ens mean, both the numerical teleconnection/implication, and the spatial synoptic. Maybe it'll be right. The GGEM - fwiw - is really starting to balloon it's eastern ridge more into what said tele's imply it could. I've seen these do this over the years since the 'heat burst' phenomenon become something we have to start including into the manifold of shit we deal with, and as that time nears...that 576 dm ( impressive enough ) slowly ticks to 582. Or not...but I'm just saying the signals support waaaaaay more than the operational GFS has yet to even once take advantage of.

heh... notwithstanding our personal religions on the matter, either. lol

I always thought back to the 1996-1997 as being an odd year. I really don't remember much happening between the twins of Dec 1996, then the "April Fool's Day Blizzard" later that spring. Those two positive buster storms, happening in the same 36 hour window ... remove those and that winter ( based upon my experience) would have come down to the March 31/Apr 1st event. That was a disappointing season after that Dec put so much higher expectation in play. I was also a bit more naive then ... But I distinctly remember wondering with higher hopes, only to go some 75 days before a worth-while event happened again. But yeah ... one cannot "save a ratter" with a single storm, particularly if the ratting is very egregious. It's too much of a slope to climb. There's also a bit of personal druthers ( maybe ...) clouding my opinion here, in that if we've come this far and I sense the sun's return ...knowing that calendar and all that, the futility awareness turns me off to it.

I suspect the warm plumes that are materializing in the modeled 5, 10 .. 30hpa levels might be more caused by streamline forcing over (near/NW) of the Swiss Alps, as a deep western European trough activity is modeled. There's going to be elevating WAA occasionally delivered to higher atitudes immediately downstream of that phenomenon, anyway, but I wonder if it would enough alone; the forced ascent over the tall terrain bulges the tropospause and enhances, giving the allusion to something more in line with planetary wave intrusion. This appears similar to me, to what took place earlier this winter. It might not reflect the latter larger scaled planetary wave forcing as actually taking place. Sometimes we see a bright infrared cloud pattern over and immediately downstream of cordilleras? They're there so long as streamline continues to be force to elevation over the terrain. And, it can bulge the atmosphere to miles over even middling elevation mountain ridges. We know that planetary wave intrusion, at that scale, is needed to trigger the subsequent downward vertical motion field post the warm temperature 'burst' occurring ( hallmark of the arrival..). The wind direction reversal endemic with all that. But like early this season ...this latter activity wasn't abundantly clearly/coherently observed, and despite the exuberance of the posting social media-sphere (ha). These warm nodes I'm seeing in the 5 10 and 30 levels ( relative to normal thereof) appear more randomly distributed. I just suspect that what we are seeing is another terrain enhanced allusion to a phenomenon that may not be capable of triggering the total mechanical circuitry of the SSW, that which would lead to lower troposphere ( eventual) responses. But it's also important to realize the partiality of these events, too. It's less likely an all or nothing.

most likely the latter ... they guy openly admits lusting for from-unda funk

The 70 foot extension latter tipped off the local authorities unfortunately. SO, re-instated.

We're still seeing a telecon projection that implicates ( at minimum) an AN first week of March. It also provides a favorable era for that synergistic heat event phenomenon ( which I seem to be the only one that gives a warm car seat over) but cross that bridge. Yet the operational versions won't fill in the canvas out there to the extent the former provides. It should be noted that we're talking beyond D9 so - maybe that's why. lol. So far, it's milder but shy of what it can be in that telecon spread. We have a wavy ambient polar boundary from roughly Colorado to western Ontario in these operational runs. Cyclones running up along, each one pressing periodic cold front/air masses side-swiping along 40 N. Southeast of them, diffused warm fronts in the pressure field - more like smears toting a fuzzy wetness. That looks like weird behavior for this time of year. Typically ...warm transports between late winter and mid spring are dry warmth. You get get 70 F over a DP of 30 F type thing. Red Flagging ..etc. But these warm sectors in the operational runs bloom misty light QPF miasmas ... yuck! I want a 3 day 65/25 DPs ... 70+ can happen more so nowadays than 1990, but still not a realistic expectation. Need another 15 years of climate denial before that reality starts gut punching spin artists... It seems we're in a eerie modeling decade where they put out solutions that are remarkably well correlated with what no one wants, with creepy proficiency. God I hope we don't get into another summer where we too rarely see sun, buried under 82/78 subtropical nut sweat skies.

Oh, this was the old one - you're attempting to verify. See, you have to actually say something like "you idiots notice the date ? " ... LOL Yeah it was off by a factor of 2 compared to verification. So, not particularly good. That means it was forecasting twice as low as it actually became. It was right about the trajectories though. Interesting.

The problem ( the way I see it ) so far with all these fossil fuel offset methods, is that humanity is not (apparently) doing so for the right incentive. The roll-outs so far are overwhelmingly and quite obviously motivated out of a capitalist's vision, an aspiration and opportunity for profit grabbing - creating wind and solar enterprises. This needs to change. The incentive needs to be rooted in correcting what caused the problem, not attempting to create gains out of losses - gain vs loss in this context is not money. The cost is the ability to be alive. Instead, costing 50K for suburban sub-colonial-sized homesteads to install panels won't work. Saving humanity from a certain wholesale set back, if not an extinction event won't work that way for a litany of obvious socioeconomic limitations vs the untenable circumstance of population vastness. Humanity is not connecting with the problem; if they did, this would be all but free, spatially comprehensive, and urgently implementing. GW --> CC is an existential threat, the immediacy of which escapes the 'humanity brain'. The ET is clearly not ubiquitously understood, or believed, ... perhaps some sort of mentally untenable, all the above. It is or may be, intellectualized, but the scale and degree of the planet's future portrait escapes and isn't perceived as an ET - therefrom, not enough flight or fight response in the collective sense. Whatever mechanism triggers mode changes in the larger group behavior, in this case ... species scaled, until that happens ... formulating enterprises out of an existential threat is tantamount to ransom. Shy of that only wasting time.

Yeah ...again, I read that it's going to replace by mid summer. But it was also tied into a platform change too - I'm not sure how accessibility to J.Q. public and/or subscription ... all that will be effected by a different product arrangement. I think there's an AI embedded too, by the way. changes comin'

I suspect that -NAO results down wind and time post an eastern continent/mid latitude burner pattern - should that occur. Lawns may even be in the process of tinting green ... crocuses opened up and a daisy here or there ... then reality - That's not atypical post early warm ups. The troposphere moves down stream/elevates ...etc, but than if the hemisphere pulls the plug on R-wave structures in that same window, that warm plume ends up stuck between 600 and 200 mb near Baffin Island and we're stuck in a butt-banged spring. The Euro control run has a heat burst ... exceeding 576 dm non-hydrostatic ridge that is very much an R-wave anchored scenario into the first week of March. It is the control run, but frankly ...the telecon projections have been setting that table for a number of days now ( last couple days of Feb through about the 6th of March), but the operational version won't show up for the party. I've read recently the current control run is going to be promoted by mid summer fwiw - Either way, the blocking between Mar 15 and May 15 has been a plaguing spring killer around here for years of repeating tendency - regardless of any leading/traditional correlators too ( don't get me started..). Seeing that showing up is worth it to monitor do to that awareness, but ... my point here is that there's some conceptual reasonability in seeing some sort of -NAO ... Whether or not that is tied to an AO umbrella index hat ...I don't know - I'd like to get the control run to verify just so I can bust out my road bike and some outdoor runs ( speaking of working out). Open some windows and breath. We can deal with a 2018 if we have to later on.

It's the content of the 12 pages ...

This poor thread ... It is verifying, as there's a system on the charts now passing inside the mid range. I guess a better verbal approach at the onset ...like don't use "biggie" adjectives might have been tactful but boo hoo. Success! Unfortunately it's only because its cinema up to this point ... failed to deliver drugs to the drug addicts, that there are now pages and pages of what really amounts of plebe-witted rabble. The virtuosity and usefulness to actual weather and analytics are lost in all that vastly more valuable din. Also, I'd remind that although population is sparser, the eastern half of Maine is part of this forum.

Last couple of modeling intervals continue the fight between the EPS/GGEM vs the GEFs. At this point ( seein' as everyone cares lol ) ... I am fully and spiritually done with winter. It's probably a sad homage to climate ...that I ever find myself in that mind space on February 20th. But this kind of obvious seasonal breakdown thing, happening earlier and earlier ... it just is what it is. And now combining that the sun angle is climbing so fast, and how it'd take a delusional nimrod not to see/suspect that the planetary state of aff"airs" will warm up given least excuse imaginable ... the sense of futility is undeniable. Anyway, I'm hoping the EPS isn't off but ...

I realize some of you have kids and life complexities therein that require you work out at that hideous time of day - hats off man... jesus

Tell you what ... remove that bowling ball over the Panhandle of Texas and that large scoped synoptic scenario feeds back on itself and we'll be 85 throughout the S Lakes and N OV ...

You should get a winter/second residence in New Mexico as a chicken farmer

No

Crack the Norway buds by the equinox... I wonder if that'd be a regional record. Not something anyone likely logs