Typhoon Tip

Here ya go NNE'ers

54 28 spread so far...

You're affirming my original point. Humans are not connecting CC with an actual existential threat ... When that happens, it will prevent the inclusion of incentives that get in the way of a solution. Related to why the failure to connect ... as I was commenting on Chubb's post - it's a human problem. It drops down to a biological limitation to "take threat seriously" when it is not being directly observed. This isn't as true with individuals.. It gets into a bit of sociological problem - as we integrate the individual into smaller groups, then into large groups and communities, to regions and eventually the population morass of whole countries and the scale of the word, as we go along the way ... there is an "extinction" in the ability to perceive an "intelectualized" warning as a threat. The fear of death being reported through actual sight and sound has a remarkable way of cutting through and clarifying matters. Do this or death - no one thinks otherwise or spends time arguing. Anyway, until the threat is directly understood because its evidence is on the dinner table ... these institutions you listed ...et al, they are all at fault - because it is a human limitation problem. I'm speaking more like a 'governing equation' .. Those institution examples you listed there are the gears turning inside the 'failure to register' machinery

I've neen hammering that essay for years. Climate Change does not appeal to the natural senses - literally ... sight, sound, taste, touch .etc. Up until very recently, it's presence all around us has been utterly undetectable to the way our biology was evolved to sample the environment around us. It's that simple. Everything we do as a species - so far - is an integration of that failure, from the individual ... to the group, to the country, to ultimately the whole of humanity. People have to be in f'ing pain to change. Otherwise, it's just a interesting puzzle to explore while in doubt. By the time the specter of CC finally can be explicitly expressed in that way, it may be too late.

In a word ... yuck! https://phys.org/news/2024-02-plastic-pellets-blight-belgian-town.html

yeah, I inadvertently posted the 'diurnal watch day' in the March thread. Today should be right up there. It's yesterday's air mass plus 4 or 5 just guessin'. MAV was 58-ish down here BDL-FIT-ASH. Good candidate day for typical solar transition season machine numbers being too low, however much notwithstanding. 26 -> 45 so far.

Wow, that's an ugly mid month for those into early diagnostics ... lot of moving parts to consider. At a step back perspective, there's a clear climate precedence for post early warm episodes, to see the materialization of a -NAO. When looking at the overnight layouts from all three majors .. there's hints of that taking place, so seeing as it matches said climate precedence ... The first most obvious detraction about this outlook would be the D12 distance ... It's really beyond the "confidence horizon" at that range. However ( again ), the historical inference: said outlook fits the motif of mild to warm (relative to season, and by pattern recognition) in the foreground, evolving into -NAO. So we wait. That trough I annotated slipping underneath is of Pacific origin. It's been gaining coherence ... despite the long range. This complicates matters ... if a more aggressive emergence of the NAO transpires ( which I believe is well within the 'realistic' probability envelope ), it could either evolve into a suppressive influence ... or something more ideal where it loads cold into Ontario but doesn't interfere ( negatively) with the wave space as it is forced S of our latitude. This latter scenario sets the stage for ... The sun, working into an 'elastically taut' hemisphere aching for a reason to normalize gradients because of normal seasonal forcing, together with back ground ... this whole evolution above is going to be getting whacked around a bit in future guidance.

Kinda of ... ? I don't think capitalism and "price regulatory aspects" need to be mutually exclusive. "Capitalism" isn't the problem. - doing so unconstrained, thinking it is alright ( or just being oblivious, sociopathic ...etc) to be unencumbered by moral responsibility to the consequences of an unrestrained system? That's where the problem is. Capitalism is a human invention - we decide. In a very coarse definition, we could say free and fair economic system that is within the confines of moral responsibility - chiefly, to do otherwise and undermine the ability to survive, violates the fundamental principle of being alive, which is to protect the ability to be alive. What I was saying before is that ... humanity is still not connecting CC with a a threat to that level. Ever hear it said in literature and cinema, "I never quite understood. I knew what it meant, but only now I really get it" - this spiritual awakening to the crisis has not been enlightened yet. The CC storm is coming ... When the NHC statement warns, "...Preparations need to be rushed to completion... " That's where we fail to connect. It may be an untenable at this point. The "system" is gotten to be 'too big to succeed', ironically.

Today is a extreme diurnal range watch ... Low bottomed out at 26 here .... feel pretty good about a run at 62 which would exceeds 30 Looking upstream, zip appreciable cloud through which the region is now receiving season changing sun. MAV is 58-ish. It'll be a nerd's joy testing that -

Probably can’t do that at a scalar level no… But if you were to say it’s affecting winters? You’d be 100% correct. It’s clearly factorable.

You’re not too bright are ya Fucking wrote it in black-and-white you guys was meant in the royal sense

Well, in fairness, I would not have avered +8 either… I just think with climate change being an undeniable enhancement at this point effecting pattern circulation modes … how much shit are you guys going to eat before you start fucking admitting the taste - I mean “you guys” in the royal sense The truth shall set you free of course, we can still have a big winter But the return rate of that is lengthening … like a nightmare hallway

I did ... I said it last summer/autumn that I thought this winter would be just as disappointing as the last several ...with wind velocity anomalies shredding storm chances and above normal temps with below normal snow fall. The only problem is, I said it pretty much just like that - I don't engage in seasonal outlooks in general. But nothing about this winter surprised me. I'm just very stoic about it. I don't give a shit like most. I like to see big storms but I don't trash my soul when it doesn't happen, or experience psychotropic withdraw symptoms like those that carry on with chart addiction. It is what it is... we spring for while. We'll see what happens in the ides of the month.

yeah, make sure the most damage to seasonal dependency happens in PF's neighborhood -

May be warmer in N/NW New England than NYC/Boston during early next week...

MOS getting embarrassed today.... already 52 here and we're now far long enough along the solar transition (^) that we can extend the heating hours at least thru 2pm.

Just a coarse look at the spatial layout, it appears the more likely time for trash can lids taking flight is immediately post fropa.

Not if we believe Lanse Bosart's paper related/correlating polar index bias subsequent to recurving tropical cyclone frequency. It's pretty clear in the data, and also conceptual/intuitive why it may be so ... but dumping repeating TCs over the western oceanic Basins lends to strengthening the polar vortex. Baffin Island Low ( for ex) and that's more canonical to +NAO. I saw his presentation on this at a conference some 25 years ago... not sure if there was anything on the matter since.

let's not start spin-nipping away at the mild period, either. It's AN through the 9th or 10th - probably should just keep it at that for now. I don't personally believe that spurious weird spin up along the SE coast has to be real. Its happenstance in these guidance is not allowing the surface return flow around the SE retreating high pressure to orient more SW between D6 and 9. Remove and/or weaken that and the surface flow ends up SW and that's a different implication for sky and temps.

I actually did grin a bit when cursory eval of the charts this morning, but the warm burst idea was never actually depicted/materialized in the daily charts... It's more of an intellectual thing with me - this phenomenon of "synergistic heat" events - and finding a means to recognize when they may occur given conventional methods. The initial "signal" ( for lack of better word ) was a +EPO/-PNA/+NAO, while the spatial ensemble means were also ridging. That seems like a good candidate to test modeling for that phenomenon. However, there's enough coherent/observable modeling aspects that have emerged since that don't incline that way. These synergy heat bombs are a measured result-based phenomenon going on around the world. It's when the synoptic parameters and forecast techniques, et al, point out a warmer pattern, but the model physics appear more adequate in getting the warm pattern correct, not the spiking at some point during the over all warm period - waiting to be nearly right on top of the event if at all.

Yeah .. agreed. Was tracking the possibility that a more substantial 'heat burst' synoptic interval might nest in there but that appears to be shrinking pretty obviously at this point. One aspect that is still out there for me is a regression beyond the 10th regardless of what happens in the foreground. In fact, there's already telecon support - granted it is out at the edge of the "probability horizon," the NAO appears prone to tanking by both experience at this time of year and blah blah. For winter enthusiasts ... pump the breaks. 'Have to keep in mind that July is still coming, and in order to get there, the sun is climbing ...and it does so at a particularly fast rate during March. It does begin to diabatically force the hemisphere, detectably so even between March 1st and the 10th. BUT, if overcome, look out! Some of the biggest bombs in history have takin' place in that window for good reason. If there is an anomalous wave in the flow that entangles a pocket of cold ...the whole thing can get a kind of diabatic "steroid injection" ... etc. Not saying that's happening... but the NAO is unanimously sloping toward -1.5 SD, and it's not a "spike" ( which is dubious behavior for that particular index), but takes place over a week's time and is descending along a non-perturbed trajectory - gives it more credence. Meanwhile, the PNA rises from -3 SD this week, toward neutral. It's not exactly positive? The +delta is likely more telling with that. It's just the way the 'experimental' extended range has continued to look.

I've been pretty vocal myself that I thought mid March may regress some after an early balm period (maybe that's a twitter thing? ). Not sure of a regressed month, no ... I'm just basing it on the last 30 years of "existential climate" during both autumns and springs - it's pretty clear in my own memory that large scale driven warm surges have faded into often enough -NAOs. To wit, that has some basic synoptic arguments to back it up I remember the October snow storm back in 2011 - can you believe that will be 13 years this fall ? whole decade, poof ... Anyway, it was near 80 F in mid early to Mid October, than we had cold nor-easter with cat paws, followed a week later by that event. That's an extreme case, granted. Having said all that.. sure, March 2012's probably have a return rate. I got to say ...it's hard to 'standardize' any of this though, because springs over the last 10 years have been wildly warm and cold at both ends.

I don't doubt it. hey what were those dates on that?

After a decent attempt yesterday ...the operational runs regressed to finding any plausible physics they can find to abase their own ensemble means. All of which actually are either the same or even more so amplified with the ridging we've been tracking.

We'll see how things materialize in the runs going forward but I'd remind that we are tracking the 80+ phenomenon as a new spring "threat"... It is a harmful influence too. Orchard crops will respond and that's a problem for obvious reasons, when onward in time the warm troposphere migrates into a -NAO phase and we risk freezing