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Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. Both things are true though … west -NAO/ emerging +PNA arrives while it modulates both less - + , and less cold over time
  2. that’s a wholesale reversal in the anomaly distribution over eastern n/a between now and d9 in all three main player ensemble means. may and probably will prove transient but it is a coherent pattern change
  3. it’s something i’m paying attention too, ‘correction behaviors’ going from ext into mid ranges. cold enthusiasts may want to pay attention too … as we age into winter. this weekend’s script got flipped somewhere along the way … almost too subtle to have readily noticed. 3 or 4 days ago it was a cat paw windy showers around a retro low … now it’s 60s on Sunday with dslope dandies are we doing this in winter - are we doing this later this month for that matter.
  4. well ... for now, let's get the pattern to succeed in moving from the recent warm complexion, to a colder one. that much i'm higher confidence. however, it is still necessary to get the cold synopsis machinery working ... without it, 'what can go wrong' precedes the question - the only cons i see for now ( memo from the 'what can go wrong' department ) is that because the index prognostics are a bit more unstable in the transition seasons, that takes some confidence away. - additionally, in recent decade(s) there has been less stability with telecon predictions - probably owing to increased mid latitude, base-line wind velocities effecting the spatial and spatial-temporal ( both ) wave#s 2015 is really the last time a rossby signature set up and locked. it's sort of been that long... lots of roll-outs/ and pattern changes with shortened lease tendencies, etc.
  5. kidding there ... but, the euro - i suspect - will not operate with any restraint in the extended, more so than the other guidance, this cold season. i've just too often in the past looked at that model on d9's and thought ... damn! if only this model went out 2 more days.
  6. regardless of whatever ecmwf org statemens/faqs purport about the new dissemination of the 340 hour operational run, if it is anything other than a marketing ploy .. .utilizing the model's unique proclivity for destruction porn ... it's a lie!
  7. this is a gfs ens mean from 12z ... if this were later on in dec certainly jan, we'd really be in business for some sort of correction event(s), as this is newly arriving off a pna mode shifting some 1.5 total sd, going negative to positive, while both the nao is western limbed, and pac up stream is in the AB phase -
  8. i'm actually never wrong ... it's so weird - heh quite the fantastic telecon convergence in the d10 to 15 range ... granted, not the whole winter lol but, mm ...we're far enough into the season now etc etc to at least consider an early expression - sort of leaving that open-ended there on purpose haha. one cannot wisely say much in a trump-civility, because the inherent incivility of what that means will not operate within the confines objective constraint or reality, when it comes to interpretation anyway, this signal from about the 21st to the end of the month is actually promoted to a big one at this point. big for what tho. for now at least a pattern move from a warm-like one to colder once over central/E n/a is higher than normal probability - relative to this sort of time range.
  9. this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit. i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,' ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision. this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections. some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill. the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete.
  10. it's likely too long out in time for the operational versions to really avail, but the indices are still suggestive of a pro-seasonal expression during the week of thanks giving. that's the short version.
  11. mm that -nao low may retrograde over this weekend. some wet flakes to the northern els and chilly cap paw rain showers down here. euro's a bit warm tho
  12. nothing ( of course ) has verified yet but it seems the gfs is spending an aweful lot of electrons figuring ways to buckle the flow and create deep lows out there in the extended ranges
  13. heh.. whenever i see 'FWIW' and 'FXWX' ( john ) within a post or two of one another my dyslexia's on steroids
  14. first synoptic snow potential in 10 days + ... unless these indices are full of shit. but it's multi-sourced as a signal, one that was really seeded about 5 to 7 days ago and is now getting a -epo pulse added to its growth. was gonna elaborate but others have been discussing already -
  15. unlikely. pinch off book end lows are rare, rarer still ... any model getting them right. and, at this range, most likely has never happened in guidance. the period in question does interestingly feature a -AO/-NAO index modal/couplet, taking place over a persistent -pna. so there's a signal for blocking that is embedded in the background hemisphere above mid latitudes. as is usually case ... the operational models aren't sure exactly where ... bursting positive height (anom) nodes within that general region from eastern archipelago of ne canada east toward iceland the problem is that the actual/realized blocking if/when it materializes, may favor the western or eastern limb of the general region - which either has a quantifiable difference on how it correlates to weather types here in eastern mid latitude n/a the epo is positive throughout - unless that has recently changed... if the epo were to slip negative while the nao is a east based, and the rna remains negative then we warm up again. if the epo is positive and the -nao builds west toward baffin island ( ~), the rising pna toward week two correlates to a cool down chi town to boston - at this time of year, that's a le initiator and then watching ec ( not a book end/pinch off bullshitness) do to the index change/ h.a. thing. the nao could go ahead a verify negative, woo hoo for the models, but still be a problem for winter weather enthusiasts, or ... be everything.
  16. https://phys.org/news/2024-11-plastics-pollution-worsens-impacts-planetary.html
  17. being on the eastern limb of the nao domain matters some, too. in general ( imo ) nothing matters until the +wpo/+epo changes. it's not just this indexes being positive, either... the pac entire manifold is in a double-a type. that's all 'self-reenforcing' and ... heh, gotta say, if there's ever a november set to correlate to an ensuing winter, better than other years, this is a candidate. that's like taking half the planetary system and creating the same brick out of it - it's going to need a pretty big hammer to bust it up...
  18. tomorrow will be pretty harsh though. there's some acclimation bias there, but going from 70 to 80 days, to today's 60 ... to the 44 down here and 33 up there, with near 30mph wind gusts tomorrow, that's not going to be very pleasant. btw, we've made it! we are now in the solar minimum. for the next 91.25 days we are in 'solar winter' one aspect about this time, at our latitude, that can be distinctive is that the advection terms become dominate in the diurnal cycle. if there is no caa or waa, than the sun's feeble ability to correct the air mass is more coherently registerable ... it will offset some, but it just gets subsumed by the advection to the point where it is almost immeasurable - this is the time of year the temperatures can 'bottom out' at 1pm on a sunny day, because the core of a cold air mass times... not that we should ever see anything like this given the state of the world heh
  19. it was 89, 91, 90, 39 on mar 29,30,31, apr 1, 1998, up at umass lowell in ne massachusetts. i know, i was there. and yes... 39 on apr 1 back door front toting cold from the heart of satan swept through the region on the evening of the 31st. it was off the high of the day by 12 or so anyway by 6 pm when it arrived, but we shed 20 f in 10 min and the remaining 20 over the next several hours. greatest 24 hour temperature correction due to specifically, back dooring, i've ever personally experienced or ever really even heard off. 52 big ones. i've seen 40 corrections several times. anyway, that 1998 heat happening now .. it would be interesting.
  20. as far as the dry thing non issue. burning? so what. it's top soil dry with dead seasonal veg and leaf material. rivers still flow and res levels aren't hurting. in one school of thinking, fires here and there are probably overdue around here from a geological perspective, anyway - white man having conquered the land is merely putting dents in Gaia's plans. entering the low evap season that's likely to rain more than snow much to chagrin of the hopefuls and we'll have nice fluffy mowable lawns by mid february
  21. yeah it's ( probably unfortunate to this discussion spirit ) the more likely scenario given the antecedent persistent hemisphere... the other idea isn't completely dead - but the nao has to be modeled correctly. from this range? tall order.
  22. yeah... he knows this, but was just going to add the same statement if we took some random maintenance winter event from 1990 ... a replicated it's machinery in 2024 ... the rain/snow are just going to result greater in 2024.
  23. it's alright ... i'm half shitting everyone. hey, gimme a break - society just succeeded in raising Senator Palpatine from the dead. not feelin' very confident about anyone these days.
  24. hey man, right back at ya i'm not even irritated by that. i grew up with 8 sisters and no brothers - man, i'm way more iron hauled than that. lol i think there ( in all seriousness ) are some psycho babble games folk play though. it's particularly true in this cc shit. but in the end, no one really wants winters to die. i get that. i don't. i particularly loathe the idea of the 46 f winter scape i feel pretty strongly that a winter like that is nearer than many may think or believe, aware ...or are willing to admit in this and other social media. i guess it's social media so . yeah but, we encounter a different sort of 'denial' brand in here. it's not denial because of the same false principalia, politicizing ... etc, of the wholesale society. ours seems specifically related to having to admit that winters are in trouble and our drug supply is dwindling. haha. seriously though - perhaps more trouble (again) than we thingk and the bargaining ( psycho definition ) is eye rollin' sometimes. i'm just a band-aide ripper type of guy. i choose to adult shit eating because one thing about reality i have grudgingly had to adapt to is that it is the greatest gas lighter of it all - all reality does is feed us shit, and evolution provides us dopamine to make us think it's sweet while it's being stuffed down. psychologist call this being well-adaptive. ...see, i'm darkly satirizing this engagement at the moment.
  25. yeah, i was bringing that up yesterday and this morning, the downward correcting ao/nao ... the problem is, the index actual numerical values don't really sub beneath 0.0. they are just correcting down. as they near neutral (0.0) they stall, with their ensemble spreads mop ending open with their means... well, anyway, the operational gfs ( and ggem for that matter) look like they're on the way more amplified side of a poor predictive skill period of time. doesn't lend a lot of confidence. outliers. i hate these -rna/-nao 'hopefuls' ... they're unmanned firehose patterns, where the flop end of the hose is where in the hell does the nao blocking evolve, how much therein (if even so...) then, will there really be a pacific inject of wave mechanics to break in the right spot. blah blah-blah
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