Typhoon Tip

Made it to 70 ..

I'd be willing to sacrifice some days now, for the UKMET to verify ... so that the word stein is never again floated this summer and/or can be set to ignore

up to 67 here.. d-slope/kadabatic flow combined with nearing solar max intensity, unobstructed sun perhaps offsets. I'm noticing the d-slope wind direction is just about ideally 320 deg, too. It's stunning outside. It is for the hour a perfect top 1 interval of time. We'll see how the afternoon goes

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree. The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range. The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space. What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation) That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows. if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude. One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale. When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change. I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive. And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream. So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode. I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable. But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where. Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles. It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'.... ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load. Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.

CNN: Millennials are giving Gen Z advice for their first potential recession ...oh yeah, how about, think the next time before you cast a flippant vote, flouting the virtuosity of knowing what the fuck your doing -

oh, it was the 06z GFS with that lewd west retro thing. But even this 12z idea strains cred for me by some. The 00z GFS is probably closer to what happens thu D10.

I feel that is unlikely to happen. It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way... In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh. But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error. I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable. I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo. It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde. Personally...? I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.

np ... frankly, I begin to think the PI distinction may be less meaningful since ~ 1998 anyway; since, the curve's become less linear and more exponential. That changes the things, because something is happening endemic to these last 2 or 3 decades. It's really like we need to change the narrative to "since pre super NINO 1998" The pre Industrial aspect is like a built in reminder that the 'momentum' in anthropomorphic forcing began when civility converted to an industrial format, but it appears some sort of trigger for feed-back induced synergistic heating is more recent, and dangerous once you get into non-linear responses. We know PI began this - though the laity doesn't. You know, in some quantum sense of it, probably really began when the first lesser hominid picked up a burning stick and light dawned some 300,000 years ago. The curve was likely not linear all along, but to a close approximation, predictions based upon would be relatively well behaved. Case in point, the 2023: a whole planetary systemic temperature surged. If a 1930s sci-fi writer conceived that in 2023 a temperature burst at a planetary scale would take place, it would probably be integral in a d-day plot. When is the next unseen thing going to happen, and wtf is going to be when an entire planet farts. Now that it has really happened... guess were juts in it and not knowing if we're going to win it.

approaching 30 degree delta at KFIT ... 67 ..was 39 there. 41 to 67 here as of 9:10. Bigger diurnal changes in the valleys. ORH stopped at 50

We desperately need a head-scratch emoji. Scientific disciplines sometimes do adopt a word, the use of which is internally defined to the parlance of the scientific dialogue - I'm not sure I've personally ever encountered secular in any context of weather-related science, though - unless ( LOL ) it's how we feel around here when a BD sends summer to NYC while we're stuck in the 40s ... because we're definitely engaged in a NON-secular relationship with the weather when that happens.... secular /sĕk′yə-lər/ adjective Worldly rather than spiritual. "the secular affairs of the parish." Not relating to religion or to a religious body; nonreligious. "secular music." Not bound by the full monastic rule of a religious order. Used of clergy.

Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants -

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-summer-lapland-warmest-years.html

do you remember at Funky Murphy's, we were talking about the "deamplification" error of the models? How there seems to be an everyday requirement of whatever eye-candy there is in the extended, to salt the sucker at least some amount. I suspect that is related to the models having to "speed up" the flow, moving all events from circa D12s to D8s ... to D4s and so on. Along the way, speeding up processes is but very subtle along 6 hourly intervals in the models, but is too little perhaps to notice. But aggregated over time, requires some 20% ( for the sake of discussion) of mechanical organization lost after a week of doing that.. It's like an exchange, where the models have to take energy from the small scales, to then supply the large scale with the faster basal flow velocities. Sounds like human-based economics interestingly enough... haha

You know ... not that my opinion needs to matter more than the next guy's. In striving to be 'reasonable', objectivity should be one's governing goal. If they are ... others will be more likely to consider ... etc... Aaaand then we let MAGA choose what's objective. LOL no Seriously, I maintain that CC is true. I also maintain that the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest. I will say ... there is a growing compendium of published papers that describe changes in the global circulation; faster jets is one of them. I've posted links in American WX here and there, but no replies or forwarding conversation, lend much of any confidence that anyone would recall my having done so... heh. There's a lot of advancing mathematics that has demonstrated better predictive skill, but there's still quite obviously ( and I know you may not like this word but bear with the semantics ) "alarming" gaps. Case in point, 2023: not a single human being ( that I am aware...), nor any technology therefrom, predicted that en entire fucking planet ( a whole planet ) would up and raise a degree C, ocean to air, everywhere, simultaneously. It was strangeness at a tedious scale that I haven't heard anyone, not even the University apparatus, mention. There's plenty of, 'still a mystery as to how,' type studies, but none that I've seen the specifically addresses the question: why would the 40N and above spanning Atlantic Basin SSTs, rise at the same rate and amount as the Indian Ocean, while both rose at a similar amount and speed as the ENSO band ( 4, 3.4, 3, 1+2)... as did the south Pacific...? It's like some kind of conductor zapped the whole world. These fields, moving in unison, is the alarming aspect. And the atmosphere went right along with it... That occurrence proves that "the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest" That uncertainty, moreover, allows for a larger envelope of plausible emergence yet to be presented given time. Last winter was - I think - an under-the-radar extraordinary event. It just didn't hurt anything. I've been alive for many decades now ...I've never seen 4" lousy inches of snow survive 3.5 months of time in any winter, including the big dawgs of lore. The persistent temperature suppression, albeit not extraordinarily cold, that went along with that ... is something I've never heard of. I suspect CC is always manifesting in these idiosyncratic ways that are too nuanced to most people's everyday, including the nerds, to really consider. We are an observation enslaved interpreter species of the universe and nature - we water cooler and shelve all speculation and predictions, until they are squeezing our balls.

Mmm... might help your case if you wrote a post that connects the dots with empirical data supporting this ( bold ). I mean, I lean in your favor on that in principle. Particularly the "...PDO phase have not been working out..." part. I would extend this to all quadrature, however. Ex, the ENSOs have increased intra-mode frequencies whence the larger hemispheric circulation construct types sort of strain correlation. Some times not appearing to really even be coupled. This is tendencies, mind you - we're not attempting to abase thermodynamic theory between ocean-air-land with this. This is conjecture based on observation. But, there's a way to disrupt correlations without challenging the school. I began commenting with Ray years ago that, in general, how field observation results have begun to shake confidence in using teleconnectors in on-going correlation -based corrections. Operational weather forecasting's been stressed. A personal speculation: during the recent decades, increasing basal flow velocities have been observed (empirically). This may be effecting patterns into changing faster. There's a gestation limitation in time where if the mass field modulation takes place too quickly ... this doesn't give events within it time enough to manifest; " exceeding the time-dependency on event specifics". Example... a crashing -NAO, doesn't last long enough for the sloped pattern through the lakes to manifest, because the L/W perturbs too quickly and the whole thing deconstructs itself. This may happen at all scales and dimensions. The PDO probably needs more time to be a huge driver; as a cumulative exertion, the momentum needs time to gather enough to correlate. But with the hurried transition rate and higher resonance, the system's moved on prior to seeing the better correlation. This is all very intuitive to me personally.. And these ideas do seem to 'fit' your conjecture. That said, ... unless we have data to support - which I don't personally have admittedly - this is just based on our existential impression of the world. It's anecdotal in a sense. It may be entirely right. It may be entirely wrong. Neither of those states is very typical though in speculative "art" in this shit. Somewhere in the middle is probably where the truth resides, but data tells us on which side of the 50/50 line.

65 as of 9:15 .. up from 41, but the 41 was captured at 3:30 or so after a couple hours of decoupling. Obs nearby FIT and locally suggests we coupled back up and temperatures began rising roughly around that time going forward. The rate of rise and the surrounding other observations et al suggest in total we'll be above 70 anyway. MET's been 77-ish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc, which would put today in contention if not succeeding in the greatest diurnal range day of the year. I always like to track that admittedly tedious nerdiness

already commented about it in the May thread

Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going !

Impressive extremes this month... I was just skulking around the climate pages over at NWS Boston, and marveling over that week of polar opposites. HFD put up a 38 for a high temperature on the 12th, and ~ 2" of snow recorded that day ... 7 days later on the 19th it was 89 F with a total 24 T departure of +20! Check out Worcester 10 49 27 38 -6 27 0 0.02 T M 7.5 16 190 M M 6 1 25 190 11 41 31 36 -8 29 0 0.25 1.0 M 6.1 15 40 M M 10 12 24 40 12 33 31 32 -13 33 0 0.72 6.4 M 13.9 20 40 M M 10 12 34 60 ... 6.4" of snow; high T of 33 13 46 33 40 -5 25 0 T 0.0 M 11.5 23 330 M M 9 12 35 340 14 64 39 52 6 13 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.5 18 240 M M 0 26 350 15 64 42 53 7 12 0 0.09 0.0 M 12.9 38 290 M M 4 1 54 300 16 45 35 40 -6 25 0 0.00 0.0 M 17.8 29 300 M M 8 47 280 17 54 35 45 -2 20 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.0 24 280 M M 0 35 280 18 64 35 50 3 15 0 0.00 0.0 M 13.8 24 240 M M 2 34 200 19 81 54 68 20 0 3 0.09 0.0 M 15.7 33 260 M M 3 50 270 High T of 81 20 64 42 53 5 12 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.3 32 310 M M 1 45 300 21 59 38 49 1 16 0 T 0.0 M 9.0 17 200 M M 5 26 190

Man... see the synoptic metrics for tomorrow ( Monday ) ? Aprils suck ... so do Mays some years... but one thing about spring in this region that cannot be denied is that it sometimes features some incredible short duration sensible weather turnarounds. Tomorrow will be sensational at about 3pm compared to today at that same time, per evaluating the main indicators - all guidance sources. It's like getting blood work back from a physical with an A1C of 4.8, total lipid spectrum of 150 over good cholesterol =70, and a flawless liver/kidney function. I had that in 2020 .. but since attempted some dietary experimentation to go with weight lifting and it fucked my numbers up a bit ... I've since got the A1C way down; we'll see how the cholesterol looks in August ... seein' as it's so relevant lol Looks like Metrowest of Boston out along the Pike backyards, up through southern NH are going to be about 75, with almost unadulterated sun and 3 to 5kt angel zephyrs tomorrow afternoon.

Ha ha... c'mon, man - can we give it just a day? We just got 1.25" yesterday and everything is verdantly lit up with a soaked passion for life out there. First thing I see coming here? STEIN stein stein stein

I dunno ... we got .81" here and another .2 - .3 looks like coming in per radar. seems the 1 to 1.25 has a chance yet at verifying at least here.

Imho, synoptically this is unusual behavior south of a warm boundary ... Here's a wild eye-roller idea, this is "attribution noise" I keep seeing these unusual scenarios all over the world, that are [perhaps] under the awareness radar, yet plausibly connected to CC. Likely because their impacts are too negligible. But this is significantly unusual seeing this amount ceiling and realized QPF(ing) taking place in a supposed quasi-barotropic sounding. Needing scientific, at least "sounding" reasoning? well... higher heat = higher evaporative potential = greater WV ... so much so that equilibrium starts condensing out from subtler perturbations.

This is the grungiest warm sector I believe I've ever seen in actual observations.. 60/59, south of the warm boundary ? yeeeah I thought those GFS solutions had to be too pessimistic but here we are. I guess it's not a complaint - we just had 4 days back to back of 70 to 80 with lower DPs. The weekend timing thing ...? mm I think read somewhere that there's been a statistical research demonstrating that weekend are more fucked that weekdays over the perennial averages. Which is interesting because there are only 2 weekend days vs 5, so even if the spread is slightly in favor in the numbers .. .that means the weekend shit shows are overcoming significantly stacked odds to ensure people are persecuted. haha