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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Yep. Models at 12z did tick back east a good bit. EPS did pretty significantly. the "good" news is the weathernext model is pretty far east but has some ULL enhancement on our side the apps still. And with rations up toward 20:1 it won't take much.
  2. fountainguy97
  3. fountainguy97
    the CMC is about to drop a nuke. it was the first model to show the WAA last week
  4. fountainguy97
    Honestly we need some ticks for a deeper dive. Euro already is ticking north. Sure the west trend is good but a north trend is not.
  5. fountainguy97
    That second push into ETN at end of run was going to be laying it down heavy. We are at the timeframe where the last storm "jumped." So to see this one jump from out to sea to an actual threat gives some legitimacy to our chances. The Google model was killer. We need to follow it. It's still suppressed somewhat. I got burned telling some friends about the last one. This one my mouth is SHUT lol.
  6. fountainguy97
    Yes it has. ETN is just on the fringe. Really could use it a bit more west and south. Not sure we will get that.
  7. fountainguy97
    I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will no get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited. just absurd soundings for east tn.. ratios are 25:1+
  8. fountainguy97
    Atleast this one is suppressed at this range. We can deal with that.
  9. fountainguy97
    We dodged a major bullet across Unicoi county last night. Much warmer than modeled. (The CAD downsloping fingers never really helped much). Most of my glaze is gone. But I've had several wind gusts at 30mph this morning and my Davis is fairly well protected from this direction of wind. It's ripping.
  10. fountainguy97
    The CAD is just starting to push along the the TN/NC border. So the next 2 hours we should see that occur. I'm at 30.9/18.6 and am supposed to be dead center that cold streak in Unicoi/Erwin.
  11. fountainguy97
    31/18 mix of sleet and flakes. My driveway is already covered. Ground is frozen. winds picking up and models showing .3-.4 zr with 30-50mph winds. Going to be an interesting night.
  12. fountainguy97
    Hrrr near term trending colder each run. No surprise, I think the nam and fv3 thermals will be closer to reality.
  13. fountainguy97
    Yeah that's my guess too. The hrrr gives me .25-.3 but the other high res are much higher.
  14. fountainguy97
    hoping to dodge a bullet here. High-res models have some 35-50 mph gusts here during and after the freezing rain. Thankfully the zr amounts arnt scary high on high res. But wouldn't take much.
  15. fountainguy97
    lol. A 67 page thread for this type of forecast.. One thing this storm has done is created a very hostile environment on Facebook for any meteorologist. The comments under this are just sad honestly.
  16. fountainguy97
    The valley wouldn't see as big of a warm surge. But I don't think we avoid the apps runner. But it also won't cut through middle TN
  17. fountainguy97
    Not sure if this means much for 00z but sref is coming south. we are not too far from possibly getting this thing south of the mountains. But my gut tells me we won't quite make it and it'll ride the apps
  18. fountainguy97
    Showers may get COLD lol
  19. fountainguy97
    Our cooking and heat source is propane. I've got a small briefcase inverter generator for small stuff. Can even run a crockpot off it. if we were out of power for days we would probably go pool our resources with some local friends.
  20. fountainguy97
    Absolutely. I'm prepared. And I don't want anyone to read my post and think we are fine. But I do think we manage this ok. But don't leave your safety up to "I think." The chance alone is worth being ready.
  21. fountainguy97
    It is supposed to be very cold tonight. I dumped ice from a party Sunday night on my yard. It's still here today. But the ground won't be a HARD freeze. So you are probably right. I think most areas will get nearly to the point of big problems but then flip to rain. I anticipate that to be a theme maybe even in NC too.
  22. fountainguy97
    Fv3 is FRIGID with widespread zr. Nam came in colder. Not worried about its precip. It's horrifically dry in the long range.
  23. fountainguy97
    Hrrr is not leading. It's following the rest. It's not useful until inside 24hrs it made a big jump here at 00z but it looks like it just lines up with what the 12z set was.
  24. fountainguy97
    Live shot of the 18z GFS.
  25. fountainguy97
    Sounds suspiciously like what an undercover MRX met would say....
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