Kevin Reilly

Anyone see the 18z Gfs sends a tropical system into Southern California inches and inches of rain

National Weather Service says hold on the instruments were broken that is why it was 84.7 degrees saw that article last week Philadelphia Inquire.

Yes, that was quite the evolution of a storm up here come in from the west head east then turn around and head west again. Also, at 240 looks like we have a tropical system ready to move to the NW towards the United States East Coast?

Katrina did the same thing over the everglades moved southwest then resumed a west then northwest turn.

I appreciate your dedication to getting the data together while I am sure it is enjoyable it does take a lot of time. I am happy to hear what goes on your neck of the woods compared to here about 35 miles to your SE in Media.

Where was the Volcano eruption? Are we talking the one in the southwest Pacific back in early June?

18z gfs has a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm on August 30th for here if not zip until maybe September 15th.

This isn't really surprising that's been the pattern basically since early July strong WSW to ENE flow basically Southeastern States to Outer Banks out to sea that's been one flow and then well north another fast west to east flow across the Great Lakes into the Northern Mid Atlantic then moves ENE from there, that has been the biggest reason for the drought Mason Dixon Line Points NE to Southeastern New England. It is very dry up in these regions right now obviously unrelated to tropical system but to the pattern that will steer it. My two cents probably at this point it is a 50/50 whether it turns north and moves out sea or cuts across the Bahamas across south Florida and into the Gulf. In our pattern over the past 4-5 weeks, I would say moving West across south Florida into the Gulf would be my pick due to the ridge placements up north and the upper air lows that were passing south of Cuba recently.

On my car thermometer it was 93 leaving the Phillies game at 10:20 PM. In regard to rain the total here in Media is 1.87" since July 4th.

Yep, but what happens right along the beaches doesn't always tell the whole story. I would love to know consistently what the ocean water temps are say 35 to 65 miles offshore then because that would tell the whole story. All I know is that in my lifetime I have never seen a report as high as 84.7 at ACY that's pretty incredible (I am 48 just for the record and have followed these things since I was say oh 8 years old.) As we all know too around here whether it is an approaching hurricane, nor'easter development, or the rain snow line come winter the ocean temperatures play a very critical role I-95 corridor north and west. Oh, by the way I truly appreciate your data analysis from Natmeal Township.

Don't forget about extended fall to Christmas.

Yep, drought induced fall many locations especially here just north of the Mason Dixon Line points North and East. Hey at least the ocean water temps at Atlantic City made it to 84.7 degrees the other morning.

I will take the Euro for what it's worth. Two days ago the Euro showed not too much of anything. Over the past days we have known that these systems will not really develop prior to 60 west and well at hour 200-240 here we are. No model beyond 200 hours has intensity of a tropical system down let alone 10 hours ask those in Punta Gorda in SW Florida in 2004 with Hurricane Charley.

As of this morning ACY broke a record ocean water temperature was 84.7!!

ACY ocean water temp 84.7 that’s the warmest in my lifetime wow!!!

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere.

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off.

That’s an upper level low doubt that develops. Not too little it’s a pretty large upper level low which prevents development.

What are the correlations of 0 August activity when it comes to La Nina or El Nino years? Is it possible we are in a weak to moderate El Nino year? I mean aren't La Nina years very active typically. To my untrained eye it appears that we are in more El Nino set up with all the upper air lows, shear caused by them, and dry Saharan dust. I have also been hearing about a Triple La Nina? Never heard of this? What affect does that have on this whole situation. Also, the super active eastern Pacific has fueled the idea of an east based El Nino to me. Thoughts?

NBC 10 has the ocean temp at ACY at 83???? Is that correct anyone confirm that?

Yep, agree think the development region area to focus on will be as it gets Puerto Rico Points west long way to go but we are closing in on nothing for August as the days dwindle away. There is also a string of upper air lows to contend with too as it heads westbound it's a real wait and see.

This is the upper air support for the offshore storm that is currently developing and waiting for the energy in the Carolinas to crank the low off the east coast.

That system off the East Coast early next week is more of mid latitude storm like a winter pattern doubt that becomes tropical and the 18z models have really backed off on that moving it further south and more of an ENE trajectory more out to sea from the Carolina coast. The models have been handling this very poorly at this time.

I am down in Orlando Florida had a lot of Saharan Dust here today milky fuzzy clouds and all skies were brown / orange this morning. Any thunderstorms were choked off. Looks like cooler up there temps near 80 and then a fairly wet patten showing up with an upper level low and surface low pressure developing in the Delmarva looks like a winter pattern within a weak El Nino. I will be back August 16th looks like the rain is August 13th at night to the 16th on and off, but it looked fairly significant.

I am in Orlando Florida and the Saharan Dust is well entrenched here. The skies were actually hazy brown there especially in the morning. During the afternoon the skies were milky, and the clouds were fuzzy looking. We had a few showers here today, but the towers were clearly being choked off from the Saharan Dust today. I am heading up to Charleston SC on Sunday by then the Sarhan dust will be punched Southeast ward by the cold front coming down crazy August cold front going to make it to Floriday by Sunday.