Kevin Reilly

One thing it does have that all the other models have is no high to our north.

That is a reasonable correction.

It would appear outside of a few hits here in there 2016 and 2015 there have been fewer and fewer legit snow events DC to Baltimore, to Philadelphia, to New York. I trace this back to the winter of 2009-2010 that year when it comes to snow really stand out, but those storms that dumped on us in December 19th, 2009, and February 17th, 2010, were kind of unusual in the way they evolved and the extreme blocking that took place during those storms. I mean I had 40-50 mph winds out of the west on February 17th, 2010, with heavy snow coming down 2-3" an hour I do not recall any time in my lifetime where that happened. I am searching and searching for the reasons why we are in this snow drought, but it is not just DC, to Baltimore, to Philadelphia this is happening it's happening in a lot of places over the past 2-4 years. Obviously too small of a sample size to make too much sense yet. Are we in the warm El Nino Phase?

This has been the case for the past few years no cold high up north, warm air trapped at the surface, more and more cloudy nights holding temperatures higher, ocean air entrenched, high humidity levels you can make the inferences.

Warm air trapped at the surface, many many cloudy days with fog at night, and very high humidity levels, you just can't get rid of the warmth even with a great set up. Tracking a snowstorm in our area is like predicting a hurricane strike on the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Common theme no cold high up north.

Anytime I hear Gulf and cold enough air it makes me happy! I will drink to that!

I will take 1996 and 2010 for $1,000 Alex!

I am sure that segment would do very well today LOL. I do remember that always gave me hope in times of despair when it came to snow.

LOL did you see the 12z GFS the same storm was 972 275 miles out and on January 3rd. As I said it will come west it did now split the difference in 12z GFS and 18z GFS and BOOM!

If you split the difference from the 12z GFS and the Euro we get hammered with snow!

I can't disagree starting with that storm being further west on January 3rd. We look for the correction west.

I am not buying this on January 3rd, 2024, this is our storm. I think that is further west. I am just thinking back to runs from last week when this was closer to the coast too. I think the GFS is beginning to correct this look further west as a northern stream system tugs it back to the east coast. I am interested in this storm!

Warm air trapped at the lower levels and warm air seeping in off the Atlantic at 2,000-5,000 feet?

0.02" of rain in central Delaware County Mostly Cloudy currently a few breaks of snow here and there 48 degrees currently. We will be moving into the lower 50's should we see any sun today and certainly into the 50's tomorrow. The long-range forecast beyond January 1st shows some hope for cold and snow, but the annual push it back pushes it back clearly is at work here remember our days are now getting longer. Enjoy Christmas!

If you ask me these two maps scream a few things: 1. We are in the warm phase of El Nino. It's December 24th and those humidity charts are off the charts where is the cold dry air???? 2. It's going to be very difficult to move this moisture laden atmosphere out to establish cold air that is sustained. 3. The warming is well undeniable. I could see if it were July or August and we were looking at this humidity map, but even where it is cold it is humid?? 4. With that said warmer air holds more water and if it were to snow, I am sure it would be a 1-2 foot plus snowstorm. 5. These are our new normal I am afraid. 6. Any flow whatsoever off of a body of water Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and now even the Great Lakes warms various levels of the atmosphere especially lower and mid-levels, and this is another obstacle of snow in this new era. We definitely would need a pattern progression eastward to even sniff a chance.

Yea we have been lacking this block the storms from coming straight at us please and more importantly slow the dam pattern down to phase a few storms to our east and southeast, but not too far.

The record books are about to be rewritten so hang on tight!

Like December 5ths in the past in southern PA... It loves to snow January 6th and 7th around here just ask 1996!

Screams overrunning snows with weak areas of low pressure and the caboose of the lows is the storm that develops off the coast those are the classic 1–2-foot snowstorms around here.

You cannot ignore this because the models over the past three seasons show you what should be happening in a normal winter pattern then flip out and say but this is what you get; just like in Willy Wonka: "You Get Nothing"!!! "Good Day Sir"!!!

I think we watch this because that storm was once one consolidated storm now we are beginning to see redevelopment off the coast and the cold air is at least trying to catch up so I am still interested a bit in the 29th.

Well said my feelings exactly too!

The only thing that matters to me on that GFS Run was that there is a large storm. The storm is in two pieces but its a typical GFS thing to misunderstand the split of energy in a split flow. I am sure that the idea is one consolidated low east of the Delmarva instead which would net you a 1-2 foot snowstorm possibly more if there is decent blocking.

Warm tongue of air off the Atlantic Ocean way too much fetch it happens often lately going back over the past 15 years especially due to our torched Atlantic Ocean!