Kevin Reilly

Nadda really here sprinkles with 40 mph wind gusts and temps have dropped from 77f to 67f It's pretty bad here in regard to the dryness. Rain Total: Trace

To me this is just the forecasters covering themselves after saying the season was going to be Very Active!! These systems running around are small disorganized sheared out systems with lots of dry air lurking to be humbly honest. They are however rain makers if they make landfall I would suppose. This pattern looks El Nino like to me as well.

Oh it will December to March Mid Atlantic and Northeast winter season is going to be historic!!

Not even a trace here you are lucky! Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!! Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

There are a couple of circulations I can see another very small directly to the east somewhat hiding underneath some high clouds both are naked swirls pretty good NW shear. Actually, I am wondering if that very small circulation is the ingredient for a coastal low up along the East Coast by September 7th?? Every model has a coastal low or low coming up from the south next weekend. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

I am willing to bet we end the dry streak now and what we are going to have this week with a visit from a tropical system I would say most likely from the Gulf of Mexico by September 10th or so.

I am going to say we get zippo here tonight in Media.

Currently Cloudy 67f humidity 80% dewpoint 60f Low last night was 60f high yesterday 85f Total Rain Yesterday and Last night: 0.00" Had lightning to the south and some thunder overhead but zero rainfall. Mainly Cloudy today high 75f

Here is the NAO throughout the summer some highs some lows but nothing really too locked in though. Looking forward we are moving neutral then negative should be interesting to see what changes we see in the coming weeks. I like to call this period where we go from predominately positive to neutral to negative a time of chaos when it comes to the models for mid latitude systems, I am not sure how that translates though to the Tropical Atlantic. However, I do remember how negative the NAO was when Sandy came rolling up from Eastern Jamaica to wreak havoc up the mid-Atlantic seaboard in October of 2012. Interesting times ahead as we move towards fall and winter for sure! In regard to winter the SST Delaware points NE have my attention for winter storms and an overall pattern of blocking giving us above normal snowfall NE Maryland Northern Delaware points northeastward.

Here is the NAO throughout the summer some highs some lows but nothing really too locked in though. Looking forward we are moving neutral then negative should be interesting to see what changes we see in the coming weeks. I like to call this period where we go from predominately positive to neutral to negative a time of chaos when it comes to the models for mid latitude systems, I am not sure how that translates though to the tropical Atlantic. However, I do remember how negative the NAO was when Sandy came rolling up from Eastern Jamaica to wreak havoc up the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Interesting times ahead as we move towards fall and winter for sure! In regard to winter the SST Delaware points NE have my attention for winter storms!

Skies have been orange every day for the past 4 up here. Then by say 1:00 or so it turns a milky white kind of consistent with seeing Saharan Dust in Florida. The smoke is coming from Eastern Canada and a lesser extent perhaps New Jersey too. Smoke advisory issued for remnants of N.J. wildfire (msn.com)

Currently partly cloudy a bit of haze and smoke. 72f humidity 74% dewpoint 63f Low last night 62f High yesterday 84f Going up today to 87f Enjoy the day! Go Phillies!

Cooler waters too and stable air.

Currently haze and smoke 64f humidity 77% dewpoint 57f Low last night 57f High yesterday was 82f Going up today to 84f Here is the satellite showing the area of smoke that has come down from Eastern Canada. Smoke Map | AccuWeather

Currently haze and smoke 64f humidity 77% dewpoint 57f Low last night 57f High yesterday was 82f Going up today to 84f Here is the satellite showing the area of smoke that has come down from Eastern Canada. Smoke Map | AccuWeather

How is Gilma doing getting to Cat 4?

Clear 65f humidity 73% dewpoint 56f Low was 54f Looks like going up to 82f here today still open the windows type weather.

That would have been my second guess being that there is smoke here right now. The flow was coming straight down from Quebec where there are currently fires.

I am not totally sure but perhaps there was a thin layer of clouds overnight??

I think that was what I had this caping at 125 mph.

Clear, sunny some haze and smoke. Temp 60f humidity 77% dewpoint 53f Low last night was 55f Actually, it was cooler Tuesday night into Wednesday morning at 52f. As we head into the weekend, I think we see the models pick up on tropical activity begin to ramp up.

Yea definitely makes it to Cat 3 before leveling off and yes neutral seems reasonable.

That looks stronger than a Cat 1 as a matter of fact that looks better than Ernesto at any point of its lifetime. I would estimate that as Cat 3 115-125 mph looks like it is moving off to the WNW and probably should peak now and within the next 10 hours as it moves into more stable air and SSTs. Then you have the other invest heading towards Hawaii. Pretty interesting being we are heading into or already are in La Nina. Guess the waters are pretty toasty out there so that gets me to thinking what the hell phase are we in La Nina or El Nino or maybe it is more neutral conditions at this time.

Sunny some smoke from the Canadian Wildfires 58f humidity 66% dewpoint 49f. low last night 52f

Clear 57f humidity 63% dewpoint 46f. Hmm thinking we get down to about 51-53 here somewhere around there. It's amazing for August 20th.