Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Honestly, I think that is what we are on the cusp now and will only heighten in time.
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This has been the normal now for the past 5 years it is basically exactly the same. Winter for 2-3 weeks and then it is over.
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Well, it is above normal basically everywhere what is causing all this warmth??? Hmm.....
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That's how we score the big ones!
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Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs.
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I would think at closer leads this rain to snow changeover if there is to be a quicker change will be sniffed out by the short-term dynamic models should there be a surprise and colder air rushes in faster which indeed could happen; it is what we have to look for come Tuesday to Wednesday maybe sooner.
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52f tomorrow and 57f and rain here Wednesday, morning at 7 am so enjoy the winter vibes while they last the next 8-12 hours.
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Yea February 2003 we picked up a wind driven storm of 16" here in Media.
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All Normal welcome to the new normal.
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You may need more than 3-6" area wide more like 8-10" area wide to feel better. That is why getting snow cover is very important as we head through winter towards March..... That March sun can be brutal if it remains dry and that would set up a very bad April to August.
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Looks like things are flipping to a El Nino like pattern at H5 soon... I wouldn't be so sure. Perhaps a few things this is a neutral year... or once again the Pacific is so warm compared to climatological averages that La Nina and El Nino doesn't me much.
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A couple of things.... 1. Isn't that the hallmark of neutral conditions... 2. Or is it that the overall basin of the Pacific is that warm due to climate change...
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We know what we all got in February 2003 it was pretty cool snowing at 6f here and Trenton was partly sunny we got nearly 20" of snow from that storm.
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Forget January if we do not get snow on the ground to refill water tables we are absolutely screwed for June, July, and August it will be a drought that no one has ever seen around here before.
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Wow see things have really gone to Sh....t a good guy in the great lakes all we can get is a bad guy anymore. That's when you know the sh...t has hit the fan.
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39f humidity 53% dewpoint 23f had some light snow last hour officially call it a car topper here. Looks to be an interesting night and day tomorrow especially 6 am to 8 am snow squalls.
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That is typically when we get smacked for some reason, I feel good about this situation here and it feels different than the past few years. It's the big ones we see far out.
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I mean yea it is a significant move southeast and long leads is the key.
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Yes need the northern branch with the cold high up north to move faster and the way things over the past few years have been going with the northern branch it would be surprising to see it move faster.
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100-150 miles southeast is doable at this range this keeps my hopes alive along with the 6z Euro run from this morning. Also, with a Negative NAO peaking on or around December 10th and moving towards positive on December 15th it keeps me more interested.
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Are you saying we have a chance!!! Now to some degree the 12z GFS did get a little closer on December 12th as it shifted the storm east and stronger so maybe the models are beginning to pick up on the progressiveness of the evolving pattern. Time will tell. I mean the NAO is negative moving towards positive on December 12th, so I am still interested in the 10th to 14th timeframe. Thank you for keeping hope alive!
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Low last night here 21f looking forward to the 45 mph winds tomorrow and rain shower turning to snow squall. No Snow in sight after that more of the same from past winters temps heading to 60 next week then back to near normal and then probably going back up to that afterwards. Total Snowfall for Media Delaware County this year trace and counting.
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Don't worry it will be 60 degrees soon.
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What is also noteworthy of these years most of them had that one or two large snowstorms and many of them were coming off a Negative NAO rising towards positive. Standouts to me are Superstorm of March 1993, January 7th, 1996, December 19th, 2009, and February 2010.
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Yes!!! Sleet pellets mixed with rain at the onset becoming all rain in say less than an hour; this seems very familiar the last few years.
