Kevin Reilly

My take a ways from the 0z and now 6z runs is the models are and have continued to show a potential snowstorm for the period January 19th-21st and more to follow I’m totally fine with that at this lead. Like psuhoffman and others have said good luck with the exact details beyond even day 4 because it will change often. I think we are in a buckle up phase of model watching and it seems likely to me that our cold dry pattern that we havd been enjoying (crap snow totals) up here in Southeastern Pennsylvania is about to change even if we dance a bit with the baroclinic zone or amplification to allow a northern shift or warm air to intrude it’s how we roll but the forementioned details we will not know until the earliest Thursday or do this week especially in a shifting pattern. looks like we are entering that South to southwesterly flow aloft regime gotta keep the cold air nearby and hope the southeast ridge directs the storms here and overwhelm us with warmth.

Screams normal climo here.

This is where we root for the SE Ridge to pop and push the storms northwest.

This is the epitome of a normal Mid Atlantic Winter we or most are accustomed to.

Sun making an appearance 27f low was 25f Total Snow: 0.30” (What happened to our 30” oh I see GFS needs another lesson on decimal place value must have missed the lesson on last Monday’s snow day) Total Snow Year: 5.18” The pure definition of nickle and dime winter totally normal for this time of year patience ….wait for it wait for it!!! Here it comes!

Umm I think that sinkhole there in the middle of the street was from a broken water main undermining the ground under the street level this is not drought related I believe. But to your conversation up top here I too am very concerned about water levels they are still dangerously low Springton Reservoir remains 20 feet below or so.

Well we only have 4.88” for winter here thus far it’s not just NYC it’s PHL northbound drought is real!

No worries at least you have snow to melt meanwhile 80 miles NNE of you basically 25% snow cover.

That’s what they said in January of 1983.

Drought man? Typical winter dry cold January followed by warming white February. Just a matter of time until the southeast ridge comes to turn the storm track up the coast into our 50/50 block. Models tonight were definitely meh

You mean "Big Daddy" feel like im back in 2009-2010 where we have the cold, and I kept hearing we have these storms running around and now we wait for the "Big Daddy" just all about timing so be patient.

Urgent Bulletin Requested! Winter Weather Advisory Issued: What: 1-2" of snow Sold!!!

Sooo.... our storms this year have not trended north but rather south LOL. Soo... maybe one can assume we think back to the days where the storms in the Lakes are just off the coast at the benchmark. ... and the storms in the Gulf of Alaska at 961 mb are actually sitting east of ACY>..... time will tell. I hope you all loved my Dream... now back to our regularly scheduled program or maybe not?

Well explained I learned a lot thank you! I appreciate your time!

But it’s La Niña that’s the way…..

Lol awry!!! It has already been heading in the wrong direction. Lol

We don't have to wait for radar hallucinations they are on the models now.

Yes....

Must be a warm tongue of air aloft coming in from the Atlantic around our BECS!

1993?

Next we skip 2.3” onward directly to 31.3”

That snow map looks like the result of a difluent flow aloft. A few tweaks and it’s close.

1 jog to the west and its Folks time!

28f humidity 92% dp 25 pixe dust flakes left over. added another .20” so snow total 2.0” Total year 4.88” Hey a nuisance event here!

Wind machine! Is this coastal any relation to the absolute monster right now up in the Gulf of Alaska heading north?