Kevin Reilly

Right on with my thinking.

February 2003 Presidents Day

That my friend is happening looks right to me. Hmm That would yield a pretty significant severe weather event Tennessee Valley to Mid-Atlantic looks similar to February 2017 set up.

I love this can't stop watching. Guess this is where we need to go; at least for this year anways. Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!! Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. It makes sense to me for sure.

Hmm that supports my theory of warmer waters offshore affecting downstream not Japan. However, with that said they are experiencing 2009-2010 types of winter season that we did LOL.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow Not the case for those upstream from the Atlantic in Europe. I was watching from the mountains of Switzerland there was like zero snow the ski lifts were closed and they were getting ready to cut grass.

I checked Japan temps are at or below normal. Also, why would Japan be torching from warm waters to the east of Japan that torching effect would be all points east downstream. I will say that the warm SSTs off of Japan is most likely fueling the crazy weather pattern crashing into California and then the pattern redeveloping further east to cause tornadoes in the Southeastern States and the lack of snow in the Middle Atlantic States. We really need to stop thinking locally and start looking globally as to what is going on with sea surface temperatures. Any localities that are east or northeast of a warm body of water such as the Pacific or the Atlantic is experiencing above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. In closing the state of the SST's are in large part in control of where the moisture and warm air transport is taking place around the northern hemisphere, this is locking the cold air well north over north America. In addition, the strong onshore flow off the Pacific is eroding the cold air in western Canada basically putting up a wall to not allow any southward progression of cold air hence no Alberta Clippers and so forth. Looking at posts above seems it is a problem all along the northern hemisphere with the warm SST's geeze worse than I thought. The only way then the pattern changes is by cooling the SST's down.

Media 28 Cloudy windy winds gusting to 40 mph? Getting 40 mph winds today was that forecasted? Also that storm offshore didn’t miss by much.

+3??? at this rate we will be +5-6 if you factor the nighttime lows and daytime highs.

Could be an elongated trough but I am sure there would still be ways for storms to cut especially early on in the period.

No because the warm ocean wind flow from West to East across the Pacific has shut the door for Alberta Clippers. Albert Clippers ride along a temperature gradient there are none because the air is flowing right in off the Pacific throwing up the wall not allowing for the clippers.

Don't forget about the warm Pacific and Gulf of Mexico Waters Too all of this warmth is still trapped there from last summer and it is overwhelming the entire winter pattern. There is a lag land gets colder than water and water takes longer to cool off but as you said sometimes we need this warmth to set up a dynamic gradient but no way are we getting that without an arctic push.

dynamics breeds more dynamics.... I cannot disagree that we may see wild stuff between now and March. Something is going to give as the sun angle increases and causes more in the way of temperature gradients soon.

Gotta be fog and rain remember grounds there may be a bit colder than around here and warmer air is flooding the area for now.

Yea some pretty good convective cells moving NE. Yea all normal for January carry on.

Reality is snow quick to 33f rain is State College to Scranton I-95 rain and spiking into the 50's and 60's.

Yep why not February 11th 1983!

Hey At least we are on pace.

We did well here in Media Delaware County Snow: Zero not even a flake Temps 36-39 throughout Rain Totals: 0.05" Carry On.....

That's most likely due to the progressive flow this is more east than it is south. The storm is being shewed along quicker. The main issue as you said is lack of cold that's the title of this winter "Lack of Cold, Except 5 days"

Umm I think 1995-96 was a La Niña year?

Again, like the other night I don't remember any of this in the forecast today? Once again, our state of weather and forecasting is in chaos after our 60-degree days so Wiggum Rule maybe the storm on Friday pulls a rabbit out of the hat?? I mean some of the models have a good storm track then the lack of cold air???

Just take note of the ocean water temps Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Carribean or any other body of water in the world? Why too do you think you are seeing the extreme events around the Buffalo area all you had to do is look at the temps of the water in the Great Lakes.

zero cold high up north this in the not-so-distant past would be 1-2 feet of snow for most locations. What is this telling you then? (Again, don't mean to beat a dead horse but warm warm warm off the ocean and other places to our south southwest, and southeast. It's a dam shame because with a cold high up north this is a MECS or even blizzard for a few locations. I will say that 981mb is getting close to a storm that can produce its own cold air?