GaWx

Nino 3.4 has continued to warm overall with the latest being +0.187 per OISST and -0.059 per CDAS. Also, though still lagging, OHC has been rapidly warming and is ~-0.45 as of the latest:

He’s still forecasting BN temp. domination 3/20-4/15. We shall see. Todays Euro Weeklies have mainly NN to AN most weeks but check out 3/31-4/6: Run from 3/5: Run from 3/8 (latest): pretty big change 3/8 run at H5: there’s a moderate -NAO/-AO signal then

Much of tomorrow afternoon here is forecasted to be 10-15 BN due to chilly flow behind a cold front in combo with clouds and widespread rain due to a surface low forming along the Gulf coast and moving ENE to near or just south of this area. Rainfall of 2-3” will be quite possible over the next 48 hours, which would be very beneficial due to the winter having BN rainfall. The last significant rainfall event was actually with the big winter storm 1/21-2. If KSAV gets 1.34”+, it would become the wettest event since Nov 7th.

Of course it’s the infamous Happy Hour run, when the GFS has an excuse to get drunk and be happy! Enjoy tonight’s 0Z runs. They’ll be an hour later starting tomorrow for almost the next 8 months.

A gorgeous day here with sunny skies and pleasantly warm (~80F) with a good W to SW breeze making it my first shorts day for the walk in awhile. Dewpoints did rise though vs prior days to the mid 50s.

Today’s Euro is down to -21 mean on 3/12 (40 BN) and still suggests this would likely be a very early FW like in 2016. But the accompanying 2m maps still show no week long dominated BN period afterward:

In this area Mother Nature (flowers, bugs, pollen) is saying we had a cold enough winter. Azaleas are still largely not out yet. That compares to some recent ones when they were out in early Feb! Also, I saw no early bugs. They’ve started coming out only over the last week or so: sand gnats, mosquitoes, wasps, etc. My favorite thing about winter is the lack of bugs to bug me. The pine pollen has been out for 1-2 weeks but that’s normal timing. I’m already looking forward to next winter just like I do for every winter, my favorite season!

Regarding the bolded, I think they’re referring to 60N 10 mb mean zonal winds. I believe this will be the first time they will go <+20 m/s the entire season and they’re aiming for ~-20! Also, much of the season has been >+40 making it one of the strongest on record.

Latest OHC anoms for 180-100W (I think these are to a depth of 300 m):

Cold here this morning with well below normal lows of 35 at Hunter and 37 at KSAV. Looking for highs in the near normal very nice upper 60s.

Charles Krauthammer (RIP) was certainly not an idiot. To the contrary, he was actually brilliant and likely had a Mensa level IQ. I don’t see anything in his article from 2014 that seems moronic. He’s not denying CC as he clearly states.

Obviously, just like for 2017-8, it was an easy A+ here with 3” of sleet/snow along with a little ZR with over 2” of this sleet likely making it the biggest sleet in history, the first wintry precip of any kind/amount in 7 years. Getting any measurable in a winter is a win due to the rarity. Avg sleet/snow is only 0.2”. Also, temps averaged ~1BN.

Yes. There’s been just the 2/10-11/2021 Feb Niña sub -5 AO since 1950 other than the non official Niña of Feb of 2025.

JB is saying that a stratwarm caused widespread US colder than average 3/20-4/14 is still possible. He’s saying Europe being wet has already tipped off this idea 3 times and he thinks it will happen again. But I agree with @snowman19that he usually calls for colder than normal around this period. Also, the Euro Weeklies so far still have not shown any BN signal in the E 2/3 of the US for any upcoming week with AN temps dominating. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in the maritime continent on 3/20. But the 60N 10 mb wind reversal is still looking stout with a rapid drop of 50 m/s over just a 7 day period from Mar 5th’s +30 to ~-20 m/s Mar 12. This is similar to the record earliest FW during about the same period in 2016, but that didn’t result in any widespread long lasting E US BN period in late Mar-Apr:

This evening’s walk was easily the windiest in a good number of weeks as a result of the winds behind a secondary cold front having just come through. It felt like there were some gusts to at least 40 mph! I saw one transformer blow nearby. Temps were in the low 60s with dewpoints ~40 making for a very comfortable walk. Low tonight/tomorrow night forecasted to be low 40s/upper 30s with very pleasant highs of 62/68 next 2 days. We had a much needed ~0.4” of rain this morning from light to moderate rain in a fairly narrow fast moving band that went through in ~2 hrs. Nothing severe.

Also, once we get further into spring, many years of data shows the Euro to have a decided warm bias.

1. Feb CPC PNA came out at +1.41, lower than my projection of +1.55 to +1.9. So, that means Feb of 2025 came in 4th highest rather than top 3 because of 2016’s +1.48. The 3 highest were during El Niño. 2. It still comes in way higher than the previous high Feb for La Niña, 2000’s +1.12. Of course officially 2024-5 looks to be neutral. The old record high for neutral in Feb looks like it was +1.07 in 1991. So, 2/2025’s +1.41 easily beats that, too. 3. 2024-5 DJF PNA comes in at +1.39, a bit lower than I had projected due to Feb being below my projected range. That places it 3rd behind the two El Niños of 2015-6 (+1.43) and 1976-7 (+1.41). The +1.39 is well above the next highest.

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall: -1967-8: 19.5” 88% of normal DJF rainfall -1962-3: 16.3” 64% of normal DJF rainfall -1958-9: 13.0” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall -1900-01: 9.1” only 40% of normal DJF rainfall -1871-2: 14.4” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean min low point isn’t quite as low as yesterday’s -20. It’s ~-18.5 on 3/12, still strong enough:

But will its cooling effects in the E US late Mar through Apr be similarly insignificant? If so, based on what? The AO/NAO for the 2nd half of Mar moved from strongly + on the EW run of Feb 28 to neutral on the 3/3 run.

This morning’s 0Z has the minimum 60N/10mb wind drop on 3/12 all of the way down to -26 on GFS and -24 on GEFS! Also, this is now favored to be a very early FW type of reversal as opposed to just a major SSW type of reversal:

Get it back out just in case says the 0Z Goofy! A full-fledged Barney is along for the ride this time!

Check out this huge change in the EWs at H5 over the Arctic/Greenland for Mar 17-23 over just the last 3 days of runs: 3 days ago (2/28 run) for 3/17-23: solid +AO/+NAO On that run the lowest mean wind at 60N/10mb was only down to near zero: Today’s H5 run for 3/17-23: pretty neutral AO/NAO Today’s min zonal wind way down to -20:

I see that now on the Euro Weeklies. H5 has risen significantly in the Arctic, especially over Greenland, over the last 3 days. Is this an adjustment due to the decreasing mean 60N 10 mb wind? Today’s mean low on Mar 13th dropped from yesterday’s -18 to -20, lowest EW yet. That’s a very strong reversal to either a major SSW or FW. 2m temps in the E US are still strongly favoring AN to NN over BN but are somewhat less mild than yesterday most weeks. Today’s Euro Weeklies favor a very early FW: all members sink to -10 or lower.

I’ll now look at current Nino 1+2 anomalies: way up there due to 2.3 to 2.5 C of warming just since late Jan! CDAS: +1.46 CRW: +1.63 OISST: +1.54 Feb OISST came in at +0.69. Mar looks to be aiming for well over +1. Per history what might that portend for 2025-6 ENSO? First of all, a reduction of ~0.5 may be recommended to take into account GW/relative global tropical temps. But even so, an adjusted Mar might still have a good shot at +1+. -3/2023 Nino 1+2 (on the way to El Nino) was way up at +1.52! Back then RONI was ~0.3 cooler than ONI. So, the relative equiv 3/2023 1+2 may have been ~+1.2. For Mar 2025 to reach that, the actual 1+2 may need to be way up at +1.7. That does seem possible with the current OISST already up at +1.54. Feb 2023’s 1+2 of +0.71 was similar to Feb of 2025’s +0.69. -But OTOH, Feb/Mar of 2017 were way up at +1.14/1.83 and that didn’t head to El Niño as instead 2017-8 was a 2nd year La Niña. -Feb/Mar 1998/1983 strong warmth were leftover from just ending super El Niños. So, they’re not comparable. So, which of 2023 (incoming El Niño) and 2017 (no incoming El Niño) is more likely?