GaWx

There’s been and continues to be no indication of a killing freeze (outside of the mountains, of course). Also, the last few GFS runs haven’t been as chilly. But I’m still looking forward to a reprieve from this week’s heat.

It’s now in the low 80s here with PC skies. Any potential severe thunderstorms here would be in the early evening most likely.

The latest GFS (6Z) isn’t as cold in the second week of April.

Do y’all realize that RDU has had measurable snow twice after April 9th? They got 0.3” on 4/11/1989 and 1.8” on 4/18/1983!

I’d admittedly enjoy a nice cooldown that week, especially since it would be following a four week long mild period. Also, I’m a chilly wx fan in general. Even if folks don’t want it, I feel it’s important to discuss the potential and not be caught off-guard.

If this cold verifies, which is growing in likelihood, I will forever remember this as the Tony @dsaurcold wave since he’s been warning us about this potential around Masters time:

Barney is even threatening to make an appearance….in April! No, you’re not seeing things. 12Z Goofy for 8PM on April 8th:

12Z GEFS still has some although not the operational outside of the mtns. Op gfs is still cold during this period, regardless:

Even though it is also on the 6Z Goofy, I realize that with this being out 9 days that this is so highly unlikely based on climo:

Tony, Get a load of the 0Z Goofy! Holy cow, I think Goofy had a little …no, a lot…too much: And snow on April 8th, Tue of Masters Week! Is this real? Is this because of the current very strong stratospheric reversal?

The chill is intensifying for Masters week

And now today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/7-13 have cooled a lot due to a stronger -NAO…chilly Masters may be ahead: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run:

As a result of this strengthening -NAO, today’s Euro Weeklies have cooled a lot just since yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 (Masters Week): Yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 Today run for 4/7-13

Is there going to be a chilly snap during the upcoming Masters just as has occurred in some past Masters? Be ready to break out the coats one last time then just in case? @dsauror others have an opinion?

I just watched the Thursday daily Joe Bastardi video (he’s now at Weather Bell for those who don’t know). Even he, who himself has hyped at times in the past, said that this Daily Mail headline was hype to get extra clicks. He thinks Accuweather should respond with a complaint that this is not what they forecasted, which was a range of 3-6 TSs or stronger. That’s far from forecasting 6 Hs smashing the US! When even JB is complaining about hype…. @cleetussnow

This is a perfect example of hype by Daily Mail. From your link: Six hurricanes to smash the US as forecasters warn of blockbuster season But from Accuweather’s actual forecast: Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. That’s a range of 3-6 tropical storms or stronger hitting the US. So, Daily Mail took Accuwx’s 3-6 TS+ hits and turned it into saying that Accuwx is predicting 6 hurricanes hitting the US. Terrible hyping to get clicks. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

Why do you think global ACE has averaged well BN recently despite GW to record highs?

I’ll take nice, boring, low dewpoint weather like we’ve been having. Great for outdoors!

A teeny weeny bit of rain today

Hogtown, the radiation capital of north-central FL, had a 37 low today, which was 14 BN and tied for the lowest for this month! The 2 SAV stations weren’t nearly as cold with their 42s. The walking conditions here the last 3 days have been fabulous!

Lows: KSVN 39, KSAV 41, Hogtown 40

The on and off tree damage along a 50 or so mile stretch of I-16 was like nothing I’ve ever seen over such a large area. It looks like the damage from many dozens of tornadoes!

Very well said! The only thing I’d change is to say 90-100% accuracy is when “wx forecasting” rather than “wx” becomes boring.

Hogtown, FL, had another chilly low (41, which is 9 BN). It rose a whopping 42 to a high of 83, which is 7 AN! The day averaged 1 BN.

Hogtown’s official low was, indeed, 39 (11 BN). But today’s high was way up at 79, 3 AN! It looks less cool tonight, but low 40s are forecasted for Thu and Fri nights there.