GaWx

WxBell/JB continue to strongly push that underwater seismic activity has been an important factor in determining global SST anomalies and thus global air temps. JB asks AI (Grok) to assess I gave the charts below to Grok, 2024 SST, 2025 SST, the graphic of the mid ocean spreading zone and the recent drop off. Then I asked it this: Look at the difference in SST between this year and last year, and look at the rapid drop off in Mid Ocean spreading zone activity. What do you conclude based on this Grok Conclusion:The cooling of SST from 2024 to 2025, alongside the rapid drop-off in Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity, indicates that the reduced tectonic activity is likely a key factor in the observed temperature change. The decrease in magma upwelling along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge has reduced the heat input into the ocean, leading to cooler SSTs in 2025 compared to 2024. Other factors like ocean circulation or climate variability may also contribute, but the timing of the MOSZSA drop aligns closely with the SST cooling, supporting a direct geological influence. But keep in mind that Grok has in previous JB posts insisted that the number of hydrothermal vents needs to be like a billion+ to have a large enough influence like Dr. Viterito has been suggesting. There are only like a few thousand at most that have been discovered. Let’s say 10K max: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrothermal_vent Even if we up the # of vents to a million, that would still be far too small. Dr. Spencer flat out doesn’t believe that undersea geothermal can possibly be a significant factor: https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/01/how-much-ocean-heating-is-due-to-deep-sea-hydrothermal-vents/

I’m never been a fan of the wide ranges. But they’re not the only ones with that. CyclonicWx, 20/20, and Accuwx have similarly wide ranges. OTOH, I like that CSU forecasts with no range.

From WxBell: Consider this chart of seismic activity: In looking at that chart, Dr Viterito was asked this question: : "How can you claim such a significant impact from so few events?" "This graph is the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA) from 1977 through 2024. In order to capture the total number accurately, we can only monitor the medium and large sized seismic events. For the catalogue that I use, these are events of magnitude 5.3 or higher. To answer your question, here is how this works: last year (2024) we saw a total of 93 mid-ocean seismic events magnitude 5.3 or higher. In fact, virtually all of them were 5.3-6.2. What every seismologist does know, however, is that the scale is logarithmic. So, for magnitudes 4.3 to 5.2, there were 10 times 93, or 930 seismic events. From 3.3 to 4.2, there were 9,300 events. From 2.3 to 3.2 there were 93,000 events. And from 1.3 to 2.2, there were 930,000 events! Add it all up and there were over 1,000,000 seismic events along the mid-ocean ridge system for 2024. Furthermore, it is estimated that roughly 98% of those events produce high temperature magmas. That means that, on average, high temperature magma was injected into the mid-ocean ridge system nearly 3,000 times every day! At its low point in 1977, there were only 22 mid ocean events of 5.3 or more, or roughly 200,000 total events. That's nearly 5 orders of magnitude less than the 2024 event total! This dynamic, highly energetic system is CLEARLY having an impact on the thermohaline circulation." Any comments?

Year: May forecast for ASO BoM/Euro, actual ASO, BoM miss vs Euro miss 2024: -0.1/-0.5 -0.2 +0.1 vs -0.3 2023: +2.5/+1.8 +1.6 +0.9 vs +0.2 2022: -0.4/-0.3 -1.0 +0.6 vs +0.7 2021: -0.5/0.0 -0.7 +0.2 vs +0.7 2020: -0.8/-0.3 -0.9 +0.1 vs +0.6 2019: +0.2/+0.7 +0.2 0.0 vs +0.5 2018: -0.2/+0.6 +0.5 -0.7 vs +0.1 2017: +0.2/+0.8. -0.4 +0.6 vs +1.2 2016: -0.8/-0.5 -0.6 -0.2 vs +0.1 2015: +1.6/+2.4 +2.2 -0.6 vs +0.2 2014: +0.8/+1.5 +0.2 +0.6 vs +1.3 2013: -0.8/-0.1 -0.3. -0.5 vs +0.2 ----------------------------------- 2012: +0.9/+0.8 +0.4 +0.5 vs +0.4 2011: +1.2/-0.2 -0.8 +2.0 vs +0.6 2010: -0.4/-0.9 -1.6 +1.2 vs +0.7 2009: +1.4/+0.8 +0.7 +0.7 vs +0.1 2008: +0.3/-0.2 -0.2 +0.5 vs 0.0 2007: -1.0/-0.8 -1.1 +0.1 vs +0.3 ----------------------------------- 2006: -1.0/+0.4 +0.3 -1.3 vs +0.1 2005: +1.0/+0.4 -0.1 +1.1 vs +0.5 2004: +0.7/+0.5 +0.6 +0.1 vs -0.1 2003: -0.9/-0.4 +0.2 -1.1 vs -0.6 2002: +1.0/+0.7 +0.9 +0.1 vs -0.2 ------------------------------------- Analysis: 1) 2023-4: -BOM had avg miss of +0.5 -Euro had ~no net bias; 2024 was 1st time May Euro was too cool since way back in 2004 (major outlier)! 2) 2013-22: - BoM had no net bias (average miss of 0.0) with 3 significantly too warm and 3 significantly too cold - Euro had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.6) with 6 of 10 significantly too warm - BoM cooler than Euro 10 of 10 and significantly colder 8 of 10 years 3) 2007-12: - BoM had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.8) with 5 of 6 significantly too warm - Euro had a moderate warm bias (average miss of +0.35) with 2 of 6 significantly too warm - BoM warmer than Euro 5 of 6 4) 2002-06: based on JAS, not ASO - BoM had a moderate cold bias (average miss of -0.4) with 2 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm - Euro had no net bias (avg miss ~0) —————— May 2025 predictions for ASO: BoM +0.4 Euro +0.1 Conclusions -Based just on these two, I’d lean to ~-0.2 ASO ONI. -But the two most accurate May forecasts overall for ASO have recently been the UKMET and JMA. UK has it way down to -0.9 and JMA has -0.5. Also, MetFrance tends to be too warm. It’s at 0.0. -So, based on all of these 5, I’d lean to ~-0.5 for ASO ONI as of now (vs -0.2 in 2024). That implies ASO RONI of ~-1.0. -Based on UKMET’s recent high accuracy, I won’t rule out it getting even colder than -0.5. However, the May -0.9 is a strong outlier and looks too cold to me as of now.

And just like that the Atlantic from 20-60W, 10-20N, OHC has cooled back down significantly:

The Euro Weeklies are back to an elevated risk. A couple of weeks ago, it had a moderately elevated risk for the week 5/26-6/1. It later backed off of that. But now the week of 6/9-15 has a significantly elevated risk vs climo fwiw:

OHC continues to rise:

Although yesterday had no rainfall at KSAV, there currently is an isolated thunderstorm over KSAV currently.

2023-4 cannot be unpinned. Its destiny is to be pinned for eternity because it did everything it wasn’t supposed to do and thus it’s important we learn from our mistakes.

Please pin this thread and unpin the El Niño 2023-4 thread. 2024-5 La Niña thread remaining pinned is ok since it’s still active. TIA @stormtracker @jburns @ORH_wxman

Columbia, SC, has had 6.83” during May 1-12. Going back to 1888, that’s the 2nd wettest for 5/1-12 with only 2002 slightly wetter at 7.64”!

Road closures throughout the Coastal Empire caused by flooding: CANDLER COUNTY, Ga. (WSAV) – After weekend storms, many roads are still washed out or impassable in rural parts of the Coastal Empire, like Bulloch, Tattnall and Candler counties. WSAV visited Candler County Monday and found several dirt roads flooded with ankle-deep water as well as significant infrastructure damage in some areas. When asked about the flooding Candler County Sheriff John Miles said, “We’ve seen between five and ten inches of rain, and what that did was impact a lot of our county roads. We had some roads that were just muddy, and we had some roads that were almost completely washed out.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/road-closures-throughout-coastal-empire-031945720.html

At KSAV (airport), rainfall is already up to a whopping 7.9” for May 1-12! That’s over 6 times the normal for that period and more than double the normal for the full month. It is already up to 9th wettest May on record back to the 1870s and 2nd wettest to 1915 for the wettest May 1-12 on record. There remains lots of standing water in low spots, including the back portion of MBY. Other than the flooding in some low areas, this has been quite beneficial since the area had just been in a moderate drought per the monitor.

My area had still another ~2” of rain mainly early this morning per rain gauge and Cocorahs. This brings 48 hour totals up to ~5” and 96 hour totals up to 6”+! I even had some water in my garage though not too bad.

Thanks. Sounds like a good and reasonable summary, snowman. The only things I’d like to add are: -Sunspot #s for this winter will likely be lower than the prior winter’s even though still elevated -Per RONI there could easily be another moderate peaking La Nina

I didn’t see any significant reported damage in the area though there was a house reported to have been hit by lightning on Skidaway Island. The lightning was pretty frequent with 1-2 CTG strikes nearby. The wind never was high and there was no hail. The rain had the largest impact with a pretty long period (~2 hours) of moderate to heavy though no street flooding was noted. I had only a minimal amount of water coming into the garage mainly on the side nearest to the storage room. Fortunately, I’ve had modifications and repairs done to the area at/near the garage door since last autumn. Those likely helped. The total rainfall in the area has been generous over the last 3 days combined, which is very beneficial considering being in a drought. Edit: Per Cocorahs, the area near me has had 4+” of rain (3+ yesterday, alone) for the last 3 days, combined. This is very beneficial. Much more likely to come for today/tomorrow (5/11-12).

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 758 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 845 PM EDT. * AT 758 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTGOMERY, MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, SKIDAWAY ISLAND AND ISLE OF HOPE.

3rd day in a row with thunderstorms in my area!

My nephew near Druid Hills area of Dekalb County near Atlanta just felt an earthquake in his bed. The quake was a 4.1 centered in TN:

Chuck, If you’d look real closely at the cycles, you’d actually see that the average length from min to max is significantly shorter than that for max to min: Cycle: Min to Max (years)/Max to Min (years) 1: 6/5 2: 3/6 3: 3/6 4: 3/11 5: 6/6 6: 6/7 7: 7/3 8: 4/6 9: 5/8 10: 4/7 11: 3/8 12: 5/6 13: 4/8 14: 4/8 15: 4/6 16: 5/5 17: 4/7 18: 3/7 19: 3/7 20: 4/8 21: 3/7 22: 3/7 23: 4/8 24: 6/5 (25: likely 5/?) Avg of 1-24: 4.3/6.8 % of cycles with shorter rise than fall: 79% % with opposite only 13% —————— Aside: -% with 11 year cycle only 25% though 11 is the average; 29% had 10 year (the mode) -Range 9-14 -Next min very likely within 2030-32. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_y_tot_V2.0.txt

You lost me with the bolded.

Thanks. 1) So, for the 6 years, is this correct going from the most -NAO to the most +NAO? min+2 min +1 min max max +1 max +2 2) It’s too bad we can’t see the other 5 years of the 11 year average cycle. But with cycles’ length differing cycle to cycle as opposed to always being 11 yrs, perhaps it would be less useful to go out 3-5 years from max.

Can you do Solar min out to +24 months?

Would you please do this for other years of the cycle?

It waited til later vs yesterday, but it was really coming down a few minutes ago! I’m on garage watch