GaWx

This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM): REST OF TONIGHT SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. MONDAY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line TS wind damage reports for a downed tree. Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

I’m hopeful ATL can stay out of big trouble based largely on the lucky timing of the worst coming through in the very wee hours. @buckeyefan1Would you please pin this til the threat passes? TIA

MJO forecasted to be in phase 8 most of rest of March. On average during Marches that were post La Niña winter, phase 8 was the 2nd coldest to phase 7 in Baltimore meaning being warm in the Mid-Atlantic/NE for the period averaged out will not be favored (note that I’m not saying anything explicitly about snow here as it’s getting late for that, especially MidAtlantic): GEFS: EPS: @EastonSN+

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0: Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0 AO comparisons are similar. What will the next few days show? This is pretty volatile.

-NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE: 4 days ago: Now:

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2: NAO just 3 days ago: Yesterday: Today:

No BN signal in E US:

The map above was not accurately made by Brian B. Examples: Providence and much of L.I. had 200+% of normal (pink), but this shows pink south of them. Bos is also too low. This has Charlotte ~normal vs actual of 300+%! It has GSO in NC in yellow vs actual of 200%!

There’s no need to call him that. I gave a like to Anthony’s post saying cool start to spring because he was replying to my post showing a trend toward a lower NAO in week 2, in other words starting with calendar spring rather than met. spring. Y’all are talking about different things.

What people are saying that spring has started cool? This is near the warmest 3/1-12 on record for many. I was actually waiting for spring to get started being that it’s been like summer in the SE. Finally, it cooled off since yesterday.

The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison. AO today: NAO today: NAO 2 days ago:

Latest MJO: all forecasted days are in phases 7 and 8, the coldest post Niña winter March phases on avg per records:

It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!

From KCHS at 7:15AM: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ALLENDALE BEAUFORT COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, BLUFFTON, CLAXTON, COTTAGEVILLE, DARIEN, EDISTO BEACH, ESTILL, FAIRFAX, FORT STEWART, GARDEN CITY, GLENNVILLE, HAMPTON, HARDEEVILLE, HILTON HEAD ISLAND, HINESVILLE, LUDOWICI, METTER, MILLEN, PEMBROKE, POOLER, REIDSVILLE, RICHMOND HILL, RIDGELAND, RIDGEVILLE, RINCON, SAINT GEORGE, SAVANNAH, SPRINGFIELD, STATESBORO, SUMMERVILLE, SYCAMORE, SYLVANIA, TYBEE ISLAND, VARNVILLE, WALTERBORO, AND YEMASSEE.

Chuck, Crude has quietly risen $18 (to almost $95) just since the 1PM low of yesterday! Normally, this move alone would be quite notable. But after Monday’s near all time extreme volatility, it seems relatively orderly.

I didn’t check my thermometer again during the heat of the day. But KSAV had a record high of 91, easily beating the old record of 87! KSVN also hit 91. Summer’s here! KATL tied its record high of 82.

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS

A high of 90 is forecast for this area aided by a steady SW wind pinning the seabreeze and highs have been overperforming a couple of degrees, possibly related to the drought. So, the record high of 87 has a great chance to be broken. Meanwhile, lows in the 30s a couple of days next week will be possible along with highs only in the 50s, which is colder than recent 60s lows! That will make for quite a chilly St. Patrick’s Day parade. Looking forward to that and also a low 40s low well before that on Friday.

Thanks. Based on my calling a -0.25 to +0.25 DJF averaged NAO “neutral”, I actually have 25-26 as neutral due to a -0.11 average. It was easily headed to sub -0.25 with a -0.4 winter to date avg. as of Feb 12th, but the strong +NAO of Feb 13-28 brought the avg. up to -0.11. Nevertheless, the -0.11 is the lowest NAO of a 35+ sunspot winter since 1997-8, quite a notable achievement with sunspots at 105. winter. One has to go all the way back to 1978-9 to find the last true -NAO DJF during an active sunspot winter.

Hey Ray, Good job overall! How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

KSAV had a torchy 89 high today, which missed the 1974 record by only 2. What happened to spring?

Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.