GaWx

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

Without having any idea that this would occur, I got a heavy shower suddenly at ~1:45AM (6/4) but it ended after no more than 5 minutes. I looked on radar and saw that it came from a rather unusual direction, from offshore moving WNW.

As a near coast resident, I do fear the tendency of storms developing further W and not having as much chance to recurve E of the US though it is still plenty warm in the MDR. The projected RONI based weak La Niña like last year is not comforting as far as favored tracks and suggests another significantly impactful season on the US is quite possible. Of course, with last season being so horribly bad for the SE US, the odds are that this one won’t be nearly as bad there. Fingers crossed, especially for FL, which can’t take another horrendous year. Even my area had BOTH the worst flooding from a storm (Debby) in at least 8 years as well as widespread multi day outages (Helene) (worst since 1979/David). I’d love nothing more than another 2013, 2010, 2001, or 2000. Most of those years would also make you happy and without all of the destruction.

Please post your June 2025 observations and other current or recent conditions. @jburnsplease pin. TIA

1. Atlanta: -6/1/25 CANSIPS is forecasting JJA of -2.7F vs 1981-2010 avg, which would be coolest since the dry summers of 1997 and 1976, along with +0.5”/month precip. vs 1981-2010. -How did 6/1/24 CANSIPS do? -It forecasted +0.7F. But it verified at +2.9F. So, 6/1/24 CANSIPS was 2.2F too cool. -It forecasted precip of +0.4”/month vs actual of a wetter +1.15”/month. So, it was a bit too dry. 2. Tulsa: -6/1/25 CANSIPS is forecasting JJA of -3.6F vs 1981-2010 avg, which would be coolest since 2004 (wet) and 1967 (slightly wet), along with +0.75”/month precip. vs 1981-2010. -How did 6/1/24 CANSIPS do? -It forecasted +0.9F. But it verified at +1.4F. So, 6/1/24 CANSIPS was 0.5F too cool. -It forecasted precip of +0.25”/month vs actual of a slightly drier -0.31”/month. So, it was a little too wet.

My place ended up with a way wetter than normal ~8.7” of rainfall this month. The airport (KSAV) got 10.14”, making it the 3rd wettest May on record back to the 1870s! It was an overall warm month (~+3). This evening I took the first walk outside in quite awhile. It was very pleasant for May 31st with dewpoints down to 58 (near the lowest of the month?), temperatures in the low 70s, and a light breeze. Tomorrow should be similarly dry though temps will be 3-4 higher. So, I hope to get another walk in.

FL damage est. from hurricanes (In 2025 $ billions) 1960: Donna 4 1964: Cleo 1; Dora 3 1965: Betsy 1 1975: Eloise 2 1992: Andrew 58 1995: Erin 1; Opal 6 1998: Georges 1 1999: Irene 2 2004: Charley 26; Frances 15; Ivan 24; Jeanne 13 2005: Dennis 2; Katrina 1; Wilma 31 2016: Hermine 1; Matthew 4 2017: Irma 65 2018: Michael 23 2020: Sally <9 2022: Ian 110; Nicole 1 2023: Idalia 3 2024: Helene 36, Milton 14 ———————— -1992 had 58 damage from Andrew but they didn’t have another comparable year til 2004 -2004-5, combined: 112; but Citizens Property Insurance had just been created; also, FL didn’t have another comparable period til 2017-8; so things got much better -2017-8, combined: 88; but that was followed by a not nearly as bad 2019-21 overall thus helping things though Sally of 2020 was quite bad for Pensacola -2022-4, combined: 164 (worst 3 year period ever leading to insurance crisis) but there was some stabilization and even slight premium drops in 2025 due to 11 new companies entering market as well as help from Citizens -2025+ will, needless to say, be extremely crucial for FL for the stability of the FL housing market/insurance. The MHs, especially, need to avoid FL for at least the next couple of years to help things turnaround.

14/9/3 ACE 139

As of May 28th, OHC for the area of the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean (20W-60W) is down to near the 2013-24 average. That’s still quite warm, but it’s not nearly as warm as 2024 and is even a bit cooler than 2023. I’ll be interested to see where it is in a couple of weeks:

The Cocorahs map confirms what you and I saw on the radar with a sharp cutoff of solid rainfall (~1”) just to our south in southern Chatham to the islands caused by that storm skirting us to the S on its NE trek:

We’re about to get blasted by a strong thunderstorm just to the S moving NE. Winds are gusting. Edit: rain ended up surprisingly light considering how the radar had looked on approach though . It semi-petered out as it got here though I was on the NW corner. Total <0.1”. But most of the nearby islands appeared to get a decent hit. May has been like a summer month here.

Based on RONI, 2023-4’s peak was only a borderline moderate/strong +1.50 (OND) vs 2015-6’s super RONI peak of +2.038. Even 2009-10’s peak was slightly stronger with +1.56. 2023-24’s DJF RONI then fell to just +1.21. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Despite cloudy skies dominating the day, KSAV still had a near normal high of 87. This along with dewpoints ~74 much of the day made it feel quite sticky. We’ve had rain from thunderstorms the last 2 hrs . KSAV received nearly 1”. KSAV hasn’t had a high below 84 for the last two weeks! The month has averaged +3 for the mean temp. Despite a very wet month, the avg high there so far this month has been 87! This is very different from the significantly cooler northern SE!

JFMA surface temp. anomalies vs 1991-2020: 2025 minus 2024 (C): -E NA much colder as we know -equatorial Pacific significantly colder due to Niña vs Nino as we know -much of Atlantic dominated by significantly colder -S and C Europe as well as SE Asia much colder -Russia much warmer -Australia and further south warmer -Pacific N of 20N to Alaska and further N mainly warmer

I had several hours of mainly light rain today (5/26). Edit: I estimate 0.2” for 5/26 and 2 day (5/25-6) total of ~2.2”.

Enjoy the nice chill up there! I’d love to feel it. But down here we’ll be well into the 80s every day per forecasts for the foreseeable future.

JB just asked Grok 3 things: 1) “Can you estimate, given the ocean temperatures in 1985 vs today, what the global temperature rise would be if the oceans still looked like 1985?” ————— Grok reply: “If the oceans in 2025 had the same SST anomalies as in 1985, the global temperature rise would be around 0.4°C to 0.7°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, instead of the current 1.2°C. The ocean temperature increase since 1985 accounts for 0.5°C to 0.8°C—or about 42% to 67%—of the total temperature rise, purely through ocean heat and WV effects. This underscores the oceans’ dominant role in driving global temperatures.” —————— 2) JB: “What would have been the rise outside of the Arctic and Antarctic. which are heavily skewed in their winter season and adding to the distorted results?” —————— Grok reply: “If the oceans in the non-polar regions (60°N to 60°S) in 2025 had the same SST anomalies as in 1985, the temperature rise in those regions would be around 0.2°C to 0.5°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, instead of the current 0.8°C to 1.0°C” —————— 3) JB: “So, would you conclude the oceans are the biggest driving force of the warming, given these maps?” ————— Grok reply: “Yes, the oceans are likely the biggest driving force of recent warming, as the SST maps suggest.” ________________________ JB is pushing the Dr. Viterito hypothesis based on very weak evidence at best that the oceans were warmed mainly by deep ocean seismic activity. But Grok already denied that possibility to JB due to far, far fewer under ocean thermal vents having been discovered vs how many would be needed to produce the amount of ocean warming that has occurred at the surface. The deep ocean seismic activity hypothesis of Dr. Viterito reminds me of JB ~15 years ago going with the idea that increased sunspots in the last half of the 20th century was likely the main cause of GW. I even went along with that as a possibility in an effort to be open-minded as I wanted to give it ~5-10 years to see if the very weak cycle 24 would finally lead to a reversal. There was an active SS thread here. By ~2018, I gave up on that possibility.

Today’s Euro Weeklies have re-upped the chances of TCG to close to where they were 4-6 runs ago for 6/9-15 in the W part of the basin, a pretty decent/moderate/above climo chances signal. To his credit if this were to occur, JB has been predicting this since late April although he does often predict early TCG:

The first storm appears to have produced ~1.5” within a short period. A 2nd thunderstorm started here ~10 minutes ago producing some heavy rain and once again plentiful CTG lightning. This is on the northern end of a line moving eastward. Just to my south this line has been severe warned. Total rainfall estimate for today here is 2”, which jibes with Cocorahs.

We’re about to get blasted with a strong thunderstorm. The CTG lightning is bad. Edit: 2:39PM: A little late for this imho. Here it is already starting to let up. I’ll reiterate that the CTG lightning has been very frequent and nearby (worst in a long time). The rain has been torrential, leading to my street flooding and a little water coming in near both edges of the garage door, but the winds haven’t been high. I didn’t spot any hail, but I could have missed it: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 231 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT. * AT 231 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OVER BLUFFTON TO OVER MONTGOMERY, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, BLUFFTON, BELLINGER HILL AREA, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, WILMINGTON ISLAND, HILTON HEAD ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT AND TYBEE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES I-16 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 166 AND 168. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS

The RONI is back down to La Niña:

Indeed. Look at how weak the SPV was during the 2nd half of winter of 2009-10:

Hey Chuck, -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific. -Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO. -Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

But I feel Barry’s got a good point about this making it pretty easy to claim getting it “right”. NOAA predicted a range of 13-19 NS 6-10 HU 3-5 MH Since 1995 (active era), there have been 21 non-Nino seasons. Of those 21 seasons: 1. NS: 17 (81%) were within 13-19 2. H: 15 (71%) were within 6-10 3. MH: 13 (62%) were within 3-5 If there’s going to be a range, I’d prefer it be smaller..maybe half the size.