GaWx

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US as 20% of members do not recurve safely, which is a big increase and is thus the most threatening EPS in a long time. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

The 12Z model consensus, including the Euro, says the US is going to be safe from this. This means that the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes and even the Gulf could have a problem. Only a small chance obviously.

I got 0.54" yesterday (9/1).

Yeah, the 12Z UKMET doesn't have it redevelop into a new TC like the 0Z. although it does keep it as a weak surface low as your image shows. Interestingly, the 12Z is back to being far to the south as opposed to being up into the Bahamas in a recurve position with it now moving due west from 65W to 75W to the N coast of E Cuba at the end of the run (144). This position is similar to the 12Z Wed run's 144 but obviously moving much more slowly since it is near the 144 hour position of the run from 48 hours ago. The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to moving NW like it was on the 0Z run. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously and that would be the best bet right now. Sometimes the UKMET has a far left bias. We'll see. But if it isn't off and if its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (say in 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Per the last few EPS runs and other ensemble runs, an AEW coming off Africa near 9/6 may be one the US would need to worry about based on low latitude of a good portion of members and moving quite far west within the MDR through 9/11, but that would'nt be til ~9/18 or later.

The 12Z UKMET has a weak low in the Bahamas moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map. This is a significant shift eastward vs prior UKMET runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens.

The map was posted at Storm2K by a subscriber to weather.us. Otherwise, I wouldn't have been able to see it.

1. I ended up with a whopping 13.25" for August, which is nearly twice the normal! 2. Together with the 7" for June and the 11.98" for July, I got a whopping 32.23" this meteorological summer making my water table very high and the mosquitoes happy. The far inland portions of the county got much less. Example: KSAV (airport) got only 18.59", right at normal!

The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96. Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR

There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now.

Even if they don't declare it a TD this evening, might it be declared a TD in retrospect for today after the season is reevaluated? If so, and if it subsequently gets named, it would mean no August shutout. Another option though is that this never gets stronger than a TD regardless of when it is declared a TD. If that's the case, it would mean an August shutout because TDs that never make it to TS status would leave it at the 0/0/0 status. So, several possible scenarios remain.

The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS. First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.2N 51.1W 1009 24 0000UTC 01.09.2022 12 16.2N 51.5W 1009 22 1200UTC 01.09.2022 24 17.1N 53.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 02.09.2022 36 17.5N 55.3W 1008 23 1200UTC 02.09.2022 48 17.8N 57.5W 1009 26 0000UTC 03.09.2022 60 18.1N 59.8W 1009 26 1200UTC 03.09.2022 72 19.1N 61.6W 1010 28 0000UTC 04.09.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw.

May still not get the August shutout if 93L were to be declared a TD at the 5PM EDT advisory. We'll know more in a few minutes when the 2PM EDT TWO is released. If not declared by 5PM, the broken clock clearly gets the win. However, it wouldn't be the first time. An excellent call was also made in the El Niño season of 2006 on the EasternUSwxbb by this poster (then known as "rainstorm") by going with a much weaker season than 2005. Rainstorm took advantage of those expecting another very active season and won the seasonal contest that I ran.

So per the above tweet, the chance for an August TC ends if this isn't a TD by 8 PM EDT this evening because when it becomes a TD as opposed to when it becomes named is the most important milestone and also they use UTC. That will determine if August is a TC shutout.

0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 50.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.1N 50.0W 1008 26 1200UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.3N 50.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 01.09.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

This latest area update for 2022 shows the most dramatic change in two months. In comparing to the 2007-21 average for the date, 2022 has dropped all of the way down to +280K vs the +470 just eight days ago. This is the lowest it has been in relation to the prior 15 year mean since way back on July 10th: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K 8/16/22: +390K 8/18/22: +460K 8/21/22: +470K 8/29/22: +280K

Regarding ENSO, it was a slightly cold neutral season that followed a very slightly warm neutral. So, it isn't an ENSO analog or close to being one. I have no idea why it had no August NS. Although it had an ACE of only very roughly 12 as of 9/1, it ended up hyperactive in terms of ACE with a 189, which was the highest since 1950. The next season stronger than 1961 wasn't til 1995.

Good question. Going back to 1850 using Eric Webb's ONI chart, it didn't. However, I was able to find a 4 year period of cold ENSO, 1872-5 with 1875 at cold neutral. So, 1875 is the closest to it. Most cases of 3rd year La Nina went to El Nino the next year.

The 12Z UKMET is a bit SW of its 0Z position as of hour 96, when it is at 19.3N, 62.4W. This compares to the 0Z UKMET at 108, when it was 20.4N, 61.6W. Then the 12Z UKMET at hour 108 "ceases tracking" it as a TC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 48.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.8N 48.3W 1009 25 0000UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.6N 49.4W 1009 24 1200UTC 31.08.2022 24 15.8N 50.6W 1008 26 0000UTC 01.09.2022 36 16.3N 51.8W 1008 25 1200UTC 01.09.2022 48 17.5N 53.9W 1007 27 0000UTC 02.09.2022 60 18.0N 55.8W 1007 28 1200UTC 02.09.2022 72 18.9N 57.9W 1007 31 0000UTC 03.09.2022 84 19.1N 60.5W 1008 31 1200UTC 03.09.2022 96 19.3N 62.4W 1009 29 0000UTC 04.09.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING Then, it brings it back at hour 138 as a "New tropical cyclone" when it has it at 21.0N, 70.1W, moving WNW, which is quite a bit WSW of the 0Z run's position for then: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 21.0N 70.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.09.2022 144 21.6N 71.3W 1010 24 So, the actual 18Z position of today, which is 14.8N, 49.1W, compares to these two points in the 12Z UKMET, which are for both 6 hours earlier and 6 hours later: 1200UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.8N 48.3W 1009 25 0000UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.6N 49.4W 1009 24 Using interpolation, the actual 18Z position is 0.4 S and 0.25 W of the 12Z UKMET 18Z forecast point, which is ~45 miles SSW of the 12Z UKMET estimated position.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.08.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 48.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.2N 48.0W 1009 25 1200UTC 30.08.2022 12 14.8N 48.7W 1009 24 0000UTC 31.08.2022 24 15.4N 49.6W 1008 23 1200UTC 31.08.2022 36 15.8N 50.6W 1008 26 0000UTC 01.09.2022 48 16.7N 51.6W 1008 25 1200UTC 01.09.2022 60 17.8N 53.4W 1007 27 0000UTC 02.09.2022 72 18.7N 54.7W 1007 28 1200UTC 02.09.2022 84 19.9N 57.7W 1006 36 0000UTC 03.09.2022 96 20.0N 59.5W 1007 35 1200UTC 03.09.2022 108 20.4N 61.6W 1008 31 0000UTC 04.09.2022 120 20.5N 63.4W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2022 132 21.4N 65.0W 1009 28 0000UTC 05.09.2022 144 22.0N 67.3W 1008 27

There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs that I've identified. As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE: - 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica) - 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle) - 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle) - 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX) So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022's mere 3 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of these ENSO analogs. Note that the Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH) Regarding the other four 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H) Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area. The lack of activity to this point is pretty much irrelevant as one can see by the dates the Gulf coast of FL was hit. Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Yeah, I see that whereas the 18Z GEFS avoids FL, it did bring a few members closer to NC north. Regardless, yes, it is still too early to assume anywhere near safe OTS from the US despite trends in that direction vs the prior few days since there's still no TC/tight center to track. If the southern part of the were to take over, then all bets might be off because it may then head to Cuba, which could then turn right into FL or other areas.

12Z UKMET: 132 hour position is a bit NE of 0Z UKMET at 144; at 144 12Z is at 22.8 N, 65.0 W with NW movement: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.08.2022 0 14.3N 47.2W 1009 26 0000UTC 30.08.2022 12 14.2N 48.7W 1010 26 1200UTC 30.08.2022 24 14.9N 48.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 31.08.2022 36 15.3N 49.9W 1008 24 1200UTC 31.08.2022 48 15.7N 50.9W 1008 26 0000UTC 01.09.2022 60 16.5N 51.8W 1008 26 1200UTC 01.09.2022 72 17.1N 53.7W 1007 28 0000UTC 02.09.2022 84 18.1N 55.2W 1006 28 1200UTC 02.09.2022 96 19.3N 58.1W 1006 36 0000UTC 03.09.2022 108 19.7N 59.7W 1006 38 1200UTC 03.09.2022 120 20.7N 61.7W 1007 38 0000UTC 04.09.2022 132 21.4N 63.3W 1006 34 1200UTC 04.09.2022 144 22.8N 65.0W 1006 36 The 12Z ICON at 168 is quite a bit east of the 0Z ICON at 180, a sign of reduced threat from that model at least for now. Since the ICON had been showing about the most dangerous looking solutions for the US, this 12Z run shift is very good news, especially for FL. The 12Z GFS and CMC remain safely away from the US, but they both continue to threaten Bermuda. The consensus of non-Euro 12Z models is thankfully to stay safely away from the US but that could change over the next few days if movement is further west than models are showing. Thus, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence, especially since there's still no TC center to track and the system remains messy, even though the model trends are clearly good news for now for the US though not for Bermuda.

1. I received 0.10" yesterday (8/28) bringing me to 10.05" mtd. 2. I'm now getting more generous rainfall this morning (8/29) from thunderstorms embedded in a larger area of rain centered just offshore moving northward. Totals will be posted later. Likely will exceed 1". Edit: 3. I've been getting hit hard with very heavy rain at times along with some big pretty closeby CTG bolts from thunderstorms over the last hour or so (very late 8/29-early 8/30) as a result of a trough in the area. The combined total for this and this morning's likely 1"+ is going to be big and add to this already very wet month! I think it is ~3" but will verify tomorrow. Edit: I'm calling the total for 8/29-30 right at 3".