GaWx

Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance. Edit: Never mind. She’s leaving from Boston at 7AM Sun, not NYC.

In addition, a good number don’t want a major icestorm for obvious reasons and would thus rather have 33+ rain with heat/power if that’s the only realistic alternative.

Here’s today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb 10-16 to compare yesterday’s to:

Another warm day in this area with low 80s and upper 50s dewpoints as of 4PM. Mid springish.

I don’t have another link.

Indeed. Here’s Jan of 2025 using 1951-80 as the base: note how much of the US lower 48 was cold (well predicted several weeks in advance by Euro Weeklies by the way) and that it was the largest cold area on the globe:

Latest Euro Weeklies qpf for Feb 10-16: 3rd shade of green is 2-3 times normal (~2-4”). Hopefully there won’t be bad flooding. I could sure use some of that extra qpf down here though even here I’m just into shade 2 (would mean ~1.2” here).

Latest Euro Weeklies Feb 10-16 qpf: 3rd shade of green means 2-3 times normal for that period! I could use that down here.

It doesn’t count unless Euro AI also has same one.

Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean:

Boston has had 13.9” of snow this winter to date (low vs their climo). I know, boo hoo lol. If this EPS were to verify, they’d add a whopping 22” over just the next 13 days or 1.5 times their amount to date!

I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall:

Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this Jan recap here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now: SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere on the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe. This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be:

The 12Z Euro has been stuck at 105 for an hour. Edit: now it is coming in. Light snow N 1-2 tiers of NC counties Mon morning (2/10). ZR far NW NC 2/10-1.

0Z Euro AI: even warmer with significantly further N 0C 850 line; no snow most of NC now (just some in far NW NC) so warmer trend not over; still some ZR N NC into VA

Record high today at KSAV of 83 and 2nd one since Sat.

0Z EPS 10:1 snow:

0Z Euro: benign for SE

Good news with lowered icestorm threat per 0Z Icon due to it being warmer than 12Z. Also, 0Z CMC a little warmer than its 12Z. Less ZR/IP.

Even on this warmer AI run, RDU appears to still get ~2-3” of snow before change to IP and then ZR. But yes it’s changing to more of an icestorm on the Euro AI. And trend northward of 850s may not be done since this was warmest and storm is still near a week out.

Euro AI 850 mb from 18Z 24 hrs ago: Asheville -4C; RDU -2C and in middle of large 15-18” snowfall area that had extended down to all of NE GA/NW SC Euro AI 850 mb from new 18Z: snow line much further N than 24 hrs ago and further N than prior run (furthest N yet): Asheville +1C; RDU +4C with snow line then at NC/VA border (last run -1C):

Indeed. But what you’re describing is possible much of the rest of the year. That gets old fast imo. I like different seasons, especially our precious short winters. I enjoy wearing corduroys, jackets, and hats and not having the worry about sweating all of the time.

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies? There are many dry days typically in winter. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

Several NYC forum members are pissed about Mid Atlantic and especially Deep South snow so far this winter because they’re currently below climo.