GaWx

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling: CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795 CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023 OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858 Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0 Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

3rd day in a row of 3.4 cooling but slower: CDAS: cooled 0.047 to 0.833 CRW: cooled 0.024 to 1.026 OISST: cooled barely 0.004 to 0.873 Average today -0.025 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.039, -0.022, 0, +0.039 Latest TAO map is slightly cooler I predict BoA's +1.8 in 3.4 for July is going to bust way too warm.

Unless I'm missing something, this brand new CFSv2 is significantly weaker with the 3.4 peak than the prior run (see link below). The 3 month is peaking at only ~+1.7 vs the prior run's just over +2.0. More than half of the latest ensemble members (blue) are cooler than +0.9 in July as Terpeast alluded to:

Although there will be the typical fluctuations, I don't see any sign on the models of a sustained strongly -SOI for the next 10 days.

IF your thinking that there will likely not be any robust Nino SST warming over the next few weeks were to verify, the BoM's +1.8 in 3.4 for July will bust badly. The odds of a significant bust too warm continues to increase each day that sustained significant warming doesn't occur. The way things look today, it is going to be tough for OISST 3.4 to exceed +1.0 on July 1st. Assuming it starts July at +1.0, the math behind a +1.8 July would require an enormous warming to well up into the +2s by late month. I highly doubt as of now based on history that that kind of warming will happen. What do others think?

For the 2nd day in a row, all 3 cooled in 3.4: -CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.880 -CRW: cooled 0.034 to 1.050 -OISST: cooled 0.066 to 0.877 Average today of 0.039 cooler vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.022, 0, +0.039, and +0.050. For first time in weeks and possibly even months, OISST is cooler (albeit barely) than CDAS!

Rai.....ooops, I mean, ldub is back! Hurricane season ain't the same without him/her! A tradition unlike no other!

Today's update: all 3 cooled -CDAS cooled 0.018 to 0.898 -CRW cooled 0.030 to 1.084 -OISST cooled 0.017 to 0.943 Average of .022 cooler vs no change, +0.039, and +0.050 the prior 3 days.

For those who don't know, the warmest normals for 1+2 are in March, when they peak near 26.6 C. The coolest normals are in Sept, near 20.7 C. So, 1+2 normals have a wide range of 5.9 C. In contrast, Nino 4 has a much narrower range of normals between the peak of 28.9 C in May/June and the low of 28.0 in Feb. So, the range is a mere 0.9 C. Also, note that normals for Nino 4 are much warmer all year round vs 1+2 with the widest differential of near 8C around Sept and the lowest differential of 1.6 C in March. It is very rare for 1+2 actuals to be as warm or barely warmer than Nino 4.

@snowman19 Also, Nino 1+2 just came out at a new high for the year of +2.9 vs +2.7 on last week's release. Nino 3 is up to +1.4 from +1.2 while Nino 4 has risen to +0.7 from +0.6.

1. Good early find! Thank you. That Tweet is correct. Upon reading your post, I just confirmed it is up to +1.0 C. 2. Regarding the BoM June initialization of +0.9 in last week's update, it being at +1.0 in the latest OISST based weekly update doesn't necessarily mean June will end up at +1.0 when fully averaged out. Why? On OISST, June started out at only 0.73. Also, of the 25 June days to date, only 6 have been warmer than +1.0 while 19 have been cooler. I see that 10 of the 25 have been cooler than +0.9 vs 15 warmer than +0.9. I have 6/1-25 averaging in the low +0.9s per OISST. So, whether June ends up at +0.9 or at +1.0 on OISST is still unknown. Plus, the ONI is based on ERSST, not OISST, meaning more uncertainty where June as a whole will end up.

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C. Any other guesses?

The comparisons between CDAS and OISST have been weird lately. The prior 48 hours saw the fastest 48 hour CDAS anomaly warming since early March, 0.186. So, I thought that might be a sign of continued significant warming. But during that same 48 hours, OISST actually cooled 0.025 and has now cooled 3 days in a row! And, yes, the CDAS warmed modestly the last 24 hours. But it is now slowing to a crawl again at least for now.

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably: -CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916 -CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114 -OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960 Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

Today's update: mixed -CDAS warmed 0.098 to 0.898 -CRW warmed 0.041 to 1.113 -OISST cooled 0.022 to 0.977 Avg warming 0.039 vs three prior days' warmings of 0.050, 0.020, 0.012

For the first time that I can recall this year, the TAO 5 day avg exceeds +1.0 in a portion of the central 3.4.

Today's update: -CDAS warmed 0.088 to 0.800 -CRW warmed 0.064 to 1.072 -OISST cooled (barely) 0.003 to 0.999 Average warming 0.050 vs 0.020 yesterday and 0.012 two days ago We're pretty much at put up or shut up time as far as whether or not the BoM's rapid warming to +1.8 for July will occur. For that to occur, it pretty much needs to warm steadily for the next five weeks. That's why I'm much more interested than normal in following these daily SST changes.

1. Whereas the chance for a torch during a super Nino in the NE is notable, keep in mind that THE strongest on record (1877-8) as well as 1888-9 weren't torches at all with them both near normal at NYC and Boston. At NYC/Boston, Feb of 1889 was the 16th coldest of 155 Febs back to 1869/19th coldest of 151 Febs back to 1873! Also, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were only +2 at NYC, not torches. Furthermore, at Boston 1965-6 and 1972-3 were near normal. Thus, only 3 of the 7 were torches at both places with 4 of 7 near to slightly AN at NYC and 4 of 7 near normal at Boston. 2. For the SE (using mainly ATL): -1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1982-3, and 1997-8 were all near normal -1965-6 was cold due mainly to a very cold Jan -2015-6 was the only torch of the 7 and that was entirely due to the warmest Dec on record as Jan and Feb were near normal. 3. Therefore, I feel that the idea of super Nino likely equals torch is overdone for the E US with ~equal chances of no torch in NE and high chances of no torch in SE.

Bret became a TS at 42.2W, which is the furthest east of any ON RECORD in June back to 1851.

Today's update -CDAS cooled 0.009 to 0.712 as of the 24 hours ending at 6Z, but has since had a sudden rise to 0.727 as of 12Z -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.043 to 1.008 -OISST warmed 0.030 to 1.002 Average warming 0.020

Thanks. The main reason I've been following the daily 3.4 SST anomalies the last few weeks way more closely than I ever have and will try to continue at least through the next few weeks is to try to get the best feel possible for which models are doing the best for the current month. This is especially in light of the unusually large disparity between the BoM and Euro/CFS.

Beside the BoM very likely looking to end up ~0.3 too warm in 3.4 in June on the prior two runs and it being a warm outlier, another thing in your thinking's favor is that the May Euro hasn't been too cool for ASO since way back in 2004! The May Euro had ASO at "only" +1.78 vs the May BoM's +2.53. The June Euro warmed ASO but only very slightly to +1.83. It then rises only to barely into super range at +2.04 for OND. This suggests to me that the Euro's low end super peak (+2.0 to +2.2) is still about the warmest I currently see having a reasonable chance with high end strong (+1.7 to +1.9) the most likely in my mind as of now. Also, keep in mind that converting to RONI would take away ~0.3 based on the last two trimonthlies. So, for RONI, I'm currently at +1.4 to +1.6 for most likely and +1.7 to +1.9 as about the warmest based on reasonable chances. These educated guesses will continue to be subject to change as things continue to evolve obviously.

Today's update has slowed the warming again: -CDAS warmed 0.004 to 0.721 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.031 to 0.965 -OISST warmed 0.002 to 0.972 So, averaged warming today is only 0.012 vs yesterday's 0.041 with 2 of the 3 hardly moving.

Today's SOI unexpectedly for me fell back to a new low for the month, -27, bringing down the MTD average to -7. However, the sharp rise is still coming through June 25th. Reaching +15+ for a day or two still can't be ruled out.

Compared to the update from four days ago, 2023 has fallen back quite a bit vs the 2007-22 average and fallen back behind quite a few other years since 2007: 6/15: +160k/7th highest of 17 6/16: +320k/2nd highest of 17 6/20 (edit to say 6/22 same as 6/20): +150k/tied for 7th highest of 17