GaWx

Regarding Arctic ice area, yesterday had a gain. Whereas having a couple of gains during summer is common, having 3 gains in five days isn't. There has been an average daily loss of only ~50k for the last 12. This is opposite of the June 29th to July 14th period when average daily losses were a much larger ~137k.

Although the shallow Manatee Bay's buoy this week hasn't come close to the 101.1F SST high of last week with 94.5 the warmest, the Key West buoy (over deeper water and thus a much more legitimate station) today actually hit a new hottest of the year with a quick spike up to 92.8:

Today's Nino 3.4 OISST anomaly dropped to only +1.072, which is the lowest daily in two weeks and is significantly cooler than the +1.255 of July 25th.

GEM has changed over the last year or two from the Crazy Uncle (as named by JB many years ago), when it developed way too many, to almost the opposite with it developing way fewer and maybe too few. I don't know for sure whether that's better or worse but I like the change.

The 12Z GEPS/CMC and 0Z EPS also show hints of increased activity for midmonth around the Bahamas to Gulf vicinity. This all appears to be from an AEW coming off within a few days. It really doesn't look quiet on the models in general from my perspective though model activity and actual TCs are not the same thing of course.

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

This new run CANSIPS shear anomaly map, which is similar to the prior three runs, doesn't look the least bit like El Niño in that it has the opposite of the typical W shear anomalies in the Caribbean/MDR. From the perspective of a near coastal resident who sincerely doesn't want a lot of activity to worry about, this is downright concerning when also considering the very warm MDR and hopefully won't verify:

I agree that despite already being up to 5 NS and 1 H, these very active seasonal predictions will be tough to be reached. Regardless, this is a copy of a post from a non-met at another BB that I feel is relevant regarding July: "I think it's important to look at why things didn't develop. 95L and 96L mostly suffered from dry air (typical for July), easterly shear for 95L (El Nino shear is supposed to be westerly), and an upper low for 96L (not exactly characteristic of an El Nino either). None of these seem to be under the influence of an El Nino, and reflect more of a July climo than anything else. I'm not sure if an average El Nino season even has that many invests with real potential in July, to begin with. 95L also almost developed in the Western Caribbean, and probably would have done so if it didn't run into Central America. That would have been almost unheard of in a typical El Nino year with shear raging across the Caribbean."

Despite the chance it had to be higher at the end due to 96L and 97L, July ends up with one storm (H Don, which way overperformed vs most expectations), which is near average and about double the average for an already moderate El Niño per OISST. Don along with 95L, 96L, and 97L means July was not at all inactive and was more active than a lot of Julys and even more-so considering it being a moderate El Niño.

Consistent with the lack of El Niño atmospheric state, the SOI has averaged pretty neutral the last two months with -3 after the strongly -SOI (-15) of May. Also, check this out. The OHC was still dropping in the new update and was below +0.75 in late July per the latest graph after having peaked above +1.3 in mid June though it still has plenty of time to potentially come back up to new highs later this year:

Interestingly, they still haven't declared El Niño and still only have it as likely due to lack of atmospheric response so far: "El Niño AlertLA NIÑA ALERT WATCH INACTIVE WATCH ALERT EL NIÑO ENSO Outlook The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response."

Although it jumps around a lot and isn't at all reliable, especially this far out, it is fun to note that the new CANSIPS is calling for the coldest DJFM for a good portion of the SE since 2013-4. It has the SE US with about the coldest anomaly in the entire world then. With this being El Niño, that chance is enhanced and it probably has a lot to do with why the model shows it that chilly.

That's quite the warming from +1.61 ONI peak on the prior run! Having +2.0 in Sept would require steep warming throughout August. It is keeping its +1.5 Aug forecast. Is that doable? Only with steep warming throughout the month since ERSST is now only near +1.1. So, high +1 anomalies would be needed by late Aug. If that were to occur, then a +2.0 Sept would be likely. Aug will be the main test. I have some doubt that Aug will get to +1.5, but we'll see. I'm favoring Aug to be closer to the +1.3 to +1.4 range per ERSST.

I'd bring down the 96L TCG chances further down as I couldn't find a single 12Z global model supporting TCG as support has been lost. That includes the UKMET posted below. Of the hurricane models at 12Z, about all I could find supporting it is the TS shown tomorrow by HMON. 12Z UKMET: ROPICAL STORM 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 53.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.07.2023 0 22.5N 53.2W 1016 30 0000UTC 01.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands have become less organized since last night. However, the system is producing a small area of gale-force winds well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

97L won't become a TC per this, which says it has become extratropical due to merging with a cold front: AL, 97, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 359N, 676W, 30, 1006, EX

In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3.4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

The new BoM for August was just released at +1.7, a reduction from the prior run's +1.9. August forecast from prior runs: July 15th: +1.9 July 1st: +2.0 June 17th: +2.6 June 3rd: +2.4 Further out, the run was about the same with a +2.9 peak in Dec and Jan. I'm very confident that it will give up on those as we get closer. I think even @snowman19 would agree. The persistent pattern for each run is that it gives in for the first month or two but leaves the later months alone. Then as those later months get close, it starts giving in on those. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah, CRW usually runs warmer. Today it was ~0.1 warmer. OISST was only +1.162. I expect tomorrow's weekly OISST 3.4 release to be +1.2. In other news, the OHC has dropped even slightly more. Last week's report had it down to ~+0.85 from a high in mid June near +1.30-5. The report to be issued tomorrow is expected to show it at only ~+0.80. It may be nearing a bottom, but it has quite a ways to get back to the June high though there's still plenty of time for that to happen:

Don't fall for this: "Plymouth Rock has not remained in its original location over the centuries, and sea level rise has been well-documented in the surrounding region, experts say. In addition, the photo also does not take account of regular tidal fluctuations." Tidal fluctuations are near 10 feet! That pic from whenever it was taken could be at a low tide. https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-plymouth-rock-sea-level-924629756946

After a steep average daily area loss late June through the first half of July, the last two weeks overall have had a significantly lower average daily loss. Yesterday (7/29) actually had a gain of 33k sq km (to 4.52 million sq km), the first in quite awhile. Although a summer daily gain isn't common, there usually have been several per summer even during big loss years like 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, and 2012 per the graphs.

Before the new forecasts come out, I'd like to look at the latest 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts issued through 7/30 for August to see how they end up doing: BoM: +1.9 Meteo-France: +1.9 Euro: +1.5 CANSIPS: +1.5 UKMET: +1.4 CFS: +1.3 JMA: +1.3 Any predictions for which of these seven will end up closest to the August ERSST? June was +0.81 and July is likely going to end up +1.0 to +1.1. Current ERSST is probably near +1.1 although daily and weekly ERSSTs technically aren't released.

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms on record with TCG in July in El Niño going back to the last 50+ El Niño seasons. And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

I'd argue based on what I've read from pro mets that the West Pacific/Maritime Continent (MC) has been the dominant region regarding "forcing" for the last five years. These same mets have said that the dominance of the SE ridge in winter has been largely because of this. This MC warmth has lead to a larger than normal % of the time for the MJO to be in the MC phases 4 and 5, a higher than average amplitude in those phases, and MC MJOlike forcing often occurring even when the official MJO wasn't actually in 4 or 5. So, if what you're suggesting were to actually verify and persist through the upcoming winter, I'd look for it to lead to a colder winter in much of the E US in 2023-4 vs recent winters and possibly significantly colder.