GaWx

I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years.

The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.

Just like for any BB, the quality of posts there vary heavily depending on the poster. Of course, what’s quality is somewhat subjective. They have a decent number of excellent non-met posters. I like to look at multiple BBs.

1) 12Z UKMET: still has a TD though not as strong as the 0Z’s TS that had skimmed the SE FL coast at Palm Beach. The new run delays TCG til it is 50 miles NE of Cape Canaveral. It then moves NE to 150 miles E of Amelia Island, FL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 29.0N 80.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 05.08.2024 156 29.0N 80.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.6N 79.0W 1008 34 ————————- 2) 12Z ICON is weaker and further E than 0Z with a weak low near Tampa though it then moves NE to just offshore GA/SC and becomes a 1007 mb TD 3) 12Z GFS has strengthening very slow moving low central Gulf coast that becomes a 1002 mb TS there 4) 12Z CMC is further E and much weaker with just a weak low over SE FL/NW Bahamas. But then it gets stronger as it moves NE offshore NC and becomes a TS moving further OTS.

Ed, 57 (a very experienced and respected tropical pro met in Houston area who tends to be a little conservative for those who don’t know) sounds unusually bullish for him with this just out (didn’t know if you saw this yet): The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

CDAS has a cold bias but it has recently been trending cooler, consistent with OISST.

2021 12 0.2885 2022 1 1.0778 2022 2 1.6830 2022 3 0.7677 2023 12 1.9365 2024 1 0.2060 2024 2 1.0894 2024 3 -0.2141 So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0. So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low 0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle 0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB 0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42 0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47 1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33 0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now.

How about this for a two day drop of Nino 3.4 anomaly per OISST…it plunged 0.3 C to -0.125C!

Thanks. But I’m still wondering despite them being from different sources why they’re not even close with one near +1C and the other several degrees below 0C!

Just like is the case for the 12Z ICON, the 12Z UKMET is the first run with a TC from the C MDR disturbance (may be due to it just coming in range since TCG isn’t til the end of the run). It is in the NW Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 25.0N 77.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 168 25.0N 77.6W 1012 29 ———————- Edit: The 12Z GFS is the first GFS with a TC from this since yesterday’s 6Z (hits the FL panhandle). The 12Z CMC again has a TC from this in the E GOM that then hits the FL panhandle with a high end TS. 12Z before Euro: all 4 of the most followed globals have a TC from this with 3 of 4 in Gulf. UKMET is recurving in NW Bahamas. ——— Update: The 12Z Euro is much weaker than prior runs (maybe a TD at most/1007 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC. Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.

Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)?

The 12Z ICON is its first run with a TC from this. At 180 it has a 1005 mb low moving NW in the direction of the central US GOM coast.

The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator.

6Z EPS 144 is as active, if not more active, vs the 0Z EPS 150 regarding the C MDR wave.

Regarding the NHC TWO disturbance in C MDR: 1. The Euro/EPS and CMC have had a TC on a good number of runs in a row with the CMC hitting the NE Gulf and the Euro having a couple of hundred miles offshore NC TC. But the GFS, ICON, and UKMET have mainly been quiet. 2. Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

1. Whereas most models have EPAC activity, some with two TCs, the GFS has been about the strongest with these. Regardless, I don’t know that that’s wrong and don’t know whether or not that’s relevant to its lack of an Atlantic TC. 2. Whereas the 6Z GFS is still another without an Atlantic TC from the central MDR wave and just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (0Z GEFS had only 1 member (3%) with a TC), the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this more active GEFS is with still a very active EPAC.

For E Atlantic AEW, here are 0Z runs: -CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5 -Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet -ICON, UK, GFS: no TC -GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z) Edit: 0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

Chuck, Your maps make sense because the correlation of a +PNA to cold in the SE is stronger than it is in the NE and also stronger in the SE to that from -EPO. Per your maps: -the correlation to BN temps of a +PNA is 0.3-0.5 in the SE vs 0.0-0.25 in the NE. So, in SE, +PNA is more crucial to cold than -EPO with the combo typically being the coldest. -the correlation to BN temps of a -EPO is only 0.1-0.3 in the SE vs 0.3-0.4 in the NE. So, in the NE and especially New England, a -EPO is much more crucial to cold than +PNA. -the correlation to BN temps in the Midwest and Plains is 0.25-0.5 for -EPO vs a mainly negative correlation for +PNA. -of course it gets more complex when considering what combo of PNA and EPO exists

The 7/26 OISSTa drop of 0.17 is the largest since at least early May. RONI is likely now finally back into Niña

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op, which has H just off NC.

0Z EPS back to being similar to the very active 0Z run of 24 hours ago, especially LA through FL through E seaboard.