GaWx

The airport’s high today was 89, making it the hottest of the year to date. So far, May is coming in significantly warmer than normal. Not good as this is enhancing the dry conditions. Only ~10% of December-April periods were drier than 2021-22.

Thank you. Hoping y'all get just the right amount of seabreeze collision related rainfall this summer. That is such a cool phenomenon as it is pretty unique (in the US at least) to the FL peninsula! Based on looking at the records, the good news for my area even with La Nina continuing is that the correlation to dry in summer/early fall is lower than the rest of the year. There have been a nontrivial number of La Nina summers/early falls that were wet although tropical moisture was often an important part of the equation as one might expect. Whereas I don't want any direct tropical hits from anything strong, I'd welcome the moisture associated with either indirect effects or nondamaging systems, which are thankfully much more common than damaging here. Better yet would be plentiful ordinary summertime late day convection. Hopefully Hogtown is spared anything bad this year! With La Nina now likely to continue, we both may have to be on our toes this season as per climo.

More on the dryness at KSAV: SAV members may especially find this of interest @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81 Dec 2021 -Apr 2022 rainfall: 8.04" vs normal of 16.17" (So, only 50% of normal). So, we need rain badly! I'm starting to irrigate. - 8th driest on record (back to 1871) - Driest since 1988-9 - The 7 drier ones were in 1988-9, 1984-5, 1937-8, 1926-7, 1910-1, 1897-8, and 1889-90 - Regarding ENSO, 4 of those 7 drier periods were during La Nina (like 2021-2) and other 3 were during cold neutral. - Longterm ENSO climo for this area/SE coast favors dryness during La Nina and wetness during El Nino (wettest ones usually stronger). - The driest El Nino Dec-Apr was 9.62" (1930-1) followed by 9.72" (2006-7). Only 2 El Nino below 10" and none below 9.62". So, I’m hoping for a wet May. But with La Niña continuing, prospects from an ENSO perspective are not good. Model consensus doesn’t show any major relief anytime soon unfortunately.

More on the dryness at KSAV: SAV members may especially find this of interest @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81 Dec 2021 -Apr 2022 rainfall: 8.04" vs normal of 16.17" (So, only 50% of normal). So, we need rain badly! I'm starting to irrigate. - 8th driest on record (back to 1871) - Driest since 1988-9 - The 7 drier ones were in 1988-9, 1984-5, 1937-8, 1926-7, 1910-1, 1897-8, and 1889-90 - Regarding ENSO, 4 of those 7 drier periods were during La Nina (like 2021-2) and other 3 were during cold neutral. - Longterm ENSO climo for this area/SE coast favors dryness during La Nina and wetness during El Nino (wettest ones usually stronger). - The driest El Nino Dec-Apr was 9.62" (1930-1) followed by 9.72" (2006-7). Only 2 El Nino below 10" and none below 9.62".

April 2022 at KSAV: Mean 66.0 vs 66.6 normal and 64.7 last April Average high 78.7 and average low 53.4 Warmest 88 (vs normal of 89, 88+ since 2006, highest 95 set in 1986, and lowest 78 set in 1901) Coldest 37 (vs normal coldest of 39, highest 52 set in 1941, and lowest 28 set in 2007) Rainfall 0.87" (vs normal of 3.39", 17th driest back to 1871 (meaning nearly 90% have been wetter), driest since 2012

Yesterday was still another pleasant day here, which is why I made time to both sit outside and enjoy the late day sunshine and then later take an evening walk.

After a long warmer to much warmer than normal period going back through last December (typical of the last decade+), the Arctic has finally cooled to colder than normal over the last week and is now 5C below normal during this period of sharp warming of normals. That is the coldest anomaly for any portion of the year going back at least to 2015. It is also the coldest for April 24th since way back in 1964! No other year on record back to 1958 other than 1964 had it as cold as 251 K (-22 C) this late in the season. After another day or so of continued cold, models have it warming solidly soon after. So, this degree of chill in the Arctic won’t last much longer per models and it will more than likely end up just being a short blip and thus insignificant. Regardless, it will be interesting to follow. Here’s the latest:

Down here it has averaged near normal to date and that’s where the full month is headed. I’ve enjoyed it. On another subject but still related to April: the most freak Atlanta winter storm imo wasn’t either the 1993 or 1899 blizzard, it wasn’t the icestorm of 1973, it wasn’t snow jam 1982 or snow jam 2014, it wasn’t the near 8” snow of 3/24/1983, it wasn’t the heaviest on record in downtown of 10” of 1940, and it wasn’t either of the 4” sleetstorms of 1979 and 1988. What do I think it was? This one: https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2017/04/april-25-1910-snowfall-in-northern-georgia/ Not only was the snowstorm happening that late in April so hard to believe (it was 3 weeks later than the second latest measurable of any amount), the high temperature of only 39 was only the third April day with a high only in the 30s since the late 1800s and nearly 3 weeks later than the second latest! Here’s a map showing the snow: note how far south in GA and AL the measurable got. I’ll add that trace amounts were seen as far south as Americus in SW GA, which is at the latitude of Savannah! There’s no way to know obviously, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a once every 500+ year type of occurrence in GA based on how freak this was.

It was another fantastic and beautiful spring day here with a high near 70, near full sunshine, dewpoints mainly in the 48-50 range, and breezy conditions off the high 60s Atlantic. This month has had a good number of great days here. Temperatures have averaged close to normal, similar to January. Feb/March were a few degrees warmer than normal. I sat out IMBY these last two evenings. I hope to get in another walk later this evening like I’ve done the last two evenings. Tomorrow should be similarly pleasant with it somewhat warmer but still staying in the 70s.

The official stations in this area dropped to 44/45 due to near ideal radiational conditions of near calm winds and clear skies. In contrast, Ft Pulaski on the immediate coast, where winds were NE to E off the upper 60s ocean, didn’t get below 62!

Already down into the lower 50s at the two official stations near here and also down at Brunswick. I had an enjoyable walk an hour ago. With dewpoints in the low 40s in my area and near calm winds, some lows are likely going to be in the middle 40s though some clouds may come in later to impede the radiation.

Today in this area is one of the last days, if not the last day, til autumn with dewpoints down in the 30s. I plan to take a walk later to take advantage of it. Tonight’s low has a good shot to get below 50, almost certainly one of the last and maybe the last till October. For KSAV, the coldest in May since 2000 has been mainly 48-55.

Yesterday was a similarly near perfect day here as well.

Very bad luck for you to be there on just about the coldest afternoon of the entire winter! Other than the miserable weather, how was your short visit here? I’ve been to your longtime home of Long Island a number of times (relatives there), but it has been over 30 years. I was in Elmont and took the LIRR from Valley Stream several times to go into “the city”. I went to the Roosevelt Field harness racing track in the 1980s. Went to Lundy’s seafood on LI. Today’s Masters will be much warmer and with much lighter winds vs yesterday.

Yesterday’s mean at KSAV ended up at 49. There was only one day colder than that back to February 16th! The high was only 57. There was only one high colder than that back to February 9th! This morning’s low of 37 was the coldest since March 14th.

I thought Fitzpatrick would have done much better as of the end of round 3 than +4, tied for 26th, and 13 shots out. OTOH, Lowry at -2 and tied for 4th played quite well overall. Also, McIlroy at +1 and tied for 9th is respectable. Winds will be much lighter today (lightest of the 4 rounds overall I expect) and temperatures will be much warmer. However, the greens should be the fastest of the four rounds, especially late in the round.

It was like a typical midwinter day here today with a high only near 57 after a low of 43 along with cloudy to PC most of the day and windiness. The 50 average is right at the normal for the coldest of January. I enjoyed watching the cold Masters on TV today!

Including Cink’s, there have been 17 holes in one on 16 over the last 19 tourneys or about once every year on average. Contrast that to only 7 over the prior 70 years or once every 10 years on average! Why such a drastic change the last 19 years? https://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/stats/historical/holesInOne.html It looks almost definite now that +5 will not make the cut as winds have dropped considerably and allowed for better scoring.

2017’s first round was one of the windiest Masters rounds ever with steady 20 mph winds with gusts to 40. Here are the 2017 first round results: https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2017/04/06/who-leads-2017-masters-first-round-leaderboard-104465/ The leader, Hoffmann, and McGirt, who was in 2nd, aren’t playing in the 2022 Masters. Westwood, who was in 3rd then, is at even right now and may be one to watch though he’s 48 years old. Of those who were tied for 4th then (at -1), Fitzpatrick is now doing the best with his -1 while Garcia is at even and Henley is at +1. Of those who were even then, Lowry and McIlroy are at +1. Looking at Fitzpatrick in 2022, he has finished in the top 12 in 5 of his last 7 tourneys. So, based on how he did in the very windy 1st round of 2017 as well as current scores, his 2022 performance over the last 7 tourneys, and the expected wind of the next 2 rounds, it wouldn’t surprise me if Fitzpatrick is leading or near the top after round 3.

The cold front just went through within the last 2 hours or so and winds have increased. It will remain windy through most of Saturday and mainly sunny the rest of the tourney. So, not only will greens dry out, the winds will make the course more difficult through round 3. Thus, I expect overall scoring to be worse than average and am looking for players who tend to do relatively well in tougher conditions to have a better chance. Back in the day, Tom Watson tended to do well with conditions like this. These days I'm not sure who best fits that category. Anyone know? I'm pulling for my hometown's Brian Harman to win.

In this area for this weekend, we have a legit shot at the coldest high and low since March 14th. So, it is going to be a chilly Masters with it being the coldest at least since 2018. Also, later today through Saturday are looking to be windy. So, I’m expecting average scoring to be worse than most years.

It won't quit: same general areas keep getting hit! NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 AM EDT THU APR 7 2022 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 130 AM EDT. * AT 100 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAKE PARK, DASHER, I-75 AT EXIT 5 AND TWIN LAKES.

For that line: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 931 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1015 PM EDT. * AT 931 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SYLVANIA TO OLIVER TO NEAR EGYPT TO NEAR BAY TO NEAR GROVELAND, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE: ALLENDALE, SYLVANIA, SPRINGFIELD, PEMBROKE, GODLEY STATION, LANIER, RINCON, PORT WENTWORTH, ESTILL, FAIRFAX, GUYTON, HILTONIA, GIFFORD, NEWINGTON AND FURMAN.

The Pembroke-Ellabell area of GA, which was hit by a strong tornado yesterday, is about to be hit by a rapidly moving strong line of thunderstorms.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 906 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 906 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOSTON, OR 11 MILES EAST OF THOMASVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... PAVO AROUND 915 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MORVEN, BARNEY AND BARWICK.