GaWx

I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality. I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar.

By going to Charlie’s link, I was able to find the year by looking at Mar 1 anomalies of all years one by one in the dataset, 1981+. The answer: 2010. Nothing else is even close in the MDR except, of course, 2024: Map above from here: https://www.psl.noaa.gov/tmp/mddb2/4mMm92fguL/sampleframe.png?timestamp=1714238797151 Here’s the slightly warmer 3/1/24 for comparison: Note that on Mar 1 (as well as during the entire period late Feb-Apr 26) 2024 and 2010 are by far the two warmest. That’s why 2010 has been noted as one of the top analogs by at least two well-known forecasters. Note that 2010 anoms remained very warm through Sep 10:

1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US? 2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter. 3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar. 4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models. 5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing. 6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way: Prelim DJF 20-1 Final DJF 20-21: One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast: “There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”

Thanks for your reply. I know there are major negative factors as I’ve said. I feel that CC is overall clearly a net negative. I’m just saying in the interest of honest discussion that that not every factor has been bad to this point, including deaths from temperature extremes. Like with most things, it isn’t all black and white and I feel it adds credibility to admit this.

The major effects of CC to this point haven’t all been bad on a global basis. For example, fewer deaths from temperature extremes resulting from GW due to cold being a much bigger killer than heat. This is largely due to many more hours spent in the cold danger zone than within the heat danger zone in a large majority of locations: “For the majority of the time, most cities have colder temperatures than their local optimum temperature, or the temperature that minimizes the death rate in that area. “It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.” “Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).” https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change Whereas deaths from temperature extremes have decreased through 2019 per this study, the same study says that there’s much uncertainty looking well out into the future. A good number of models suggest that after deaths continue to drop in the near future, they will start to increase late this century. This is because heat related deaths are being projected by these models to then start increasing more rapidly than the reduction of cold related deaths. From the same study, here’s Figure 10, which shows London as an example: Of course due to that being so far out in the future, there’s lots of uncertainty since increased acclimation/air conditioning could negate a good portion of the projected increase in heat related deaths.

1. It was warmer today here but still very pleasant with dewpoints as low as the upper 40s early this evening. The walking was so enjoyable. 2. 114 years tomorrow Atlanta amazingly enough had 1.5” of snow!! This is to me easily its most freak winter storm there on record. It is 3 weeks later than the second latest accumulating snow there on record, three weeks later than Greensboro’s, one week later than Raleigh’s/GSP’s, and 5 days later than Charlotte’s latest measurables! More details are here:

Yesterday and today have been two additional awesome days in much of the SE US. A little over half of the days this month have been this way here though April has averaged slightly warmer than normal.

Here’s another source for Arctic ice extent as of 4/21/24 fwiw: this one (cryospherecomputing.com) has been running a bit lower than NSIDC (NSIDC 3/31/24 was ~14.8 vs cryospere’s ~14.35). Now NSIDC is ~14.25 vs cryosphere’s ~14.1. Anyone know why the diff and whether or not one is more credible than the other? I generally have thought of NSIDC as the “go to” single best source.

And even more so during summer (on average) since 2007. During these last 17 summers, 12 (71%) have averaged sub -0.25 NAO (my threshold for -NAO vs neutral) vs only 3 (18%) with a +0.25+ (+NAO), meaning a 4:1 ratio! Compare that to summers 1950-2006, which had a much more balanced 33% sub -0.25 NAO and 32% +0.25+ (~1:1 ratio).

The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Very high (>200 4/17-20!): 4 day avg of 220, second only to June of 2023 since 2004. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

1. I’ll be surprised if ACE isn’t 150++ based on combo of La Niña and hot ATL. 2. I don’t think those very long range precip maps are reliable. At this time last year, they were similarly wet in/off FL. Also, even if they were to verify, that wouldn’t necessarily guarantee several strong TCs tracking near SE though I’m thinking there will probably be at least one. Wetness can come from other things. 3. We could still have a very active year like 1995/2010 with no E hits N of FL. 2010 is one of top analogs of at least two H forecasters. Highest risk to US seems to be when ASO RONI 0 to -1.0, which may occur unfortunately.

And note that he’ll likely not use the preceding H seasons (1995, 2010) as analogs despite being very active because neither had an E coast landfall N of FL.

Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! But he’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen. Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo): Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009): -PDO 1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT? 2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan? 3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT? 4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT? 5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT? 6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT? 7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT? My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

It’s deceptive because this CANSIPS DJF (based on 1981-2010 base) is actually sig colder than last winter from Midwest to MidATL to NE with all areas forecasted within +1 to +4F vs last winter’s +4 to +12F! Ex: Chi was +8 and is forecasted to be only +3 NYC/DC were +5 and fcast is for only +2 Of course it remains to be seen whether these forecasts are once again going to end up too cold. Still, a place like Chi has an excellent chance to not be nearly as warm as last winter.

Based on a recent analysis I did, the threat for CONUS landfalls appears to have been the highest when the ASO ONI was 0.0 to -1.0 with closer to just an average threat for sub -1.0. The April dynamic model avg is only down to weak La Nina (-0.7) for ASO. If that were to verify, even with a adjustment further down for RONI, that might be kind of scary as far as CONUS landfall history suggests depending on how RONI lines up with ONI. Hopefully, ASO ONI will come in lower than -0.7. Some of the individual models like UKMET (a very good model) give hope for that. Of the more followed dynamic models for ASO: - UKMET is the implied coldest for ASO but it doesn't go that far. It is -1.3 for JAS, which implies a bit colder than that for ASO. It did very well last year and thus I like seeing it this strong. - CFS had by far been the coldest for ASO at -1.9, but it has since warmed considerably to -1.3. It tended to be too cold last year. - Next is the CMC, which is -1.1 in ASO. - JMA is -0.7 in ASO, right at the average. In general, the JMA has averaged only a small bias and thus has been a pretty good model. That's concerning to me for the CONUS risk. - Then comes MeteoFrance's -0.4 as of ASO, but it was way too warm for last year. - Next is the Euro's -0.2, which is considerably warmer than last month's run. It also has a warm bias though it wasn't nearly as off as MeteoFrance was last year. - Bringing up the rear is Australia's Access's +0.1 though it like MeteoFrance was way too warm last year.

What, where,and when would these wx impacts be? How significant would they be in relation to other factors? Also, keep in mind that the magnitude, scope, and timing of the effects of the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano on the globe's wx are still being sorted out/debated. Several studies I've seen suggest that's its strongest effects may not be over for a good number of years (rest of the decade) with the most significant possibly still ahead due to a significant increase in water vapor that rose into the stratosphere. It is all very complex!

I just realized that the difference between ONI and RONI rose to a whopping 0.64C for JFM, the highest yet! Whereas ONI was +1.50, RONI was already down to +0.86. This large difference implies the importance of focusing on RONI to negate the portion of ONI that warmed strictly due to recent strong warming in the overall ocean tropics outside of Nino 3.4 as opposed to the warming related to El Niño, itself. For similar reasons using RONI would allow for the underlying intensity of the expected upcoming La Niña to be much better reflected. RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

1. The Euro has a warm bias, but that is a significant warming in 3.4 vs Mar. The mean isn’t even La Niña through Oct and is already leveling off. It was already down to weak La Niña Aug/Sep in last month’s run. Taking into account its warm bias probably translates this latest forecast to weak La Niña vs moderate La Niña in prior forecast. 2. Latest BoM, similar to recent runs, is also only down to -0.1/neutral for Sep. But it was way too warm for this past fall/winter as we know though longterm average bias had been neutral before then with some years too cool and others too warm. 3. Latest Meteo-France is cold neutral for Aug/Sep though that’s actually colder than the warm neutral of the prior run for Aug. Regardless, it was way too warm for last fall/winter, almost as bad as BoM. 4. Latest JMA, which historically has averaged minimal bias, and did fairly well last fall/winter other than being too warm in its Aug 2023 forecast, has warmed from borderline weak/mod La Niña in Aug to borderline cold neutral/weak La Niña in Aug/Sep. It recently had been running too cold. 5. Latest UKMET maintains its high end moderate La Niña for Aug of its last month’s run and maintains that into Sep. It did very well last fall/winter. So, I’d give this model and the JMA a little extra attention/weight. 6. Regardless, RONI is still running quite a bit colder than ONI at last check. So, the ONI progs will need to be adjusted colder by ~0.3 to 0.5 until further notice to get implied RONI progs. 7. Putting all of this together suggests to me that the best chance for fall/winter is weak to moderate La Niña ONI and moderate to possibly strong La Niña RONI. Confidence this far out though is low, especially with last year's best two (UKMET and JMA) ~1 C apart. 8. PDO is forecasted to be solidly negative for fall/winter with marine heatwave east of Japan still there along with neutral to slightly BN off the west coast of N America. Daily WCS PDO has fallen substantially recently to ~-1, which likely translates to ~-1.75 for NOAA PDO.

Another very pleasant weekend throughout the SE. I cherish these times!

Just like yesterday, the winds are gusting to over 40 at the Masters! A few balls are being blown on the greens after stopping. Sand blowing from the traps looks like mini-sandstorms!

Decent chance for trace or none for big portion of non-mountainous SE as of how it looks now. But we all know how unpredictable snow is as many can easily go from no to well AN snow with one major storm. Thus, I feel more comfortable about the chances for a mild winter than chances for little or no snow in significant part of SE. Then again, the temp. fcast is far from certainty

I just noticed that on a RONI basis, the three dips of 2020-23 aren’t quite as similar as ONI since the three dips are -1.52, -1.24, and -1.08 (range 0.44) though 0.44 is still pretty narrow. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt