beavis1729

3 here, coldest of the season. Some others...although it could have dropped lower intra-hour 6-7 AM. I think all are the coldest of the season, except ORD was also 8 on Christmas morning. ARR -3 RFD 0 DPA 2 DKB 2 JOT 6 ORD 8

I infiltrated Chicago Storm's mind when he moved to Naperville. Sneak attack.

With the usual caveats on a 16-day GFS map...it's interesting that Chicago's daily low temp records during the entire period from Feb. 7-25 (with one exception*) are all from 1936 or earlier...and most were from the 1800s or very early 1900s. Probably due to the recent UHI and the colder overall climate back then, which allowed snow cover/depth to generally persist further into February both here and in the source region. *Record low of -8 on 2/19/2015

Yep, with a slight edit. We barely hung on imby, until the current snowfall...and it was mainly in neighborhoods and sheltered areas. The more urbanized areas and busier streets had a lot of bare spots. I'm about 25 miles south of the WI border, as the crow flies.

That's a great paper. I was only 4 years old and lived in KC at the time...would have been amazing to experience. Yeah...I believe Antioch, IL had 105.6" of snow, with a peak depth of 38" and around 115 consecutive days of 1"+ depth.

Yeah, sucks. At one point it looked like a 2-3” snowfall. Maybe a silver lining is that this precursor wave helped moisten the column for the upcoming storm. Devil’s advocate says that the models should already be accounting for this, yet they are still trending weaker.

All good. I do think it can come across as a bit selfish when areas near I-80 and IKK may unfortunately miss out on the storm entirely...and at the same time you and I are concerned about not getting 6"+. I think that's what some other posters are alluding to. Mimilliman and baum are good posters, as are most here. It's not personal.

Yep, agree overall. With that said, I think it's natural to be on edge and worry before the storm...thinking more about what could go wrong vs. what is likely to occur. For northern LOT specifically...a couple days ago it looked like the initial/separate WAA snow tonight would be 2-3", now it may only be a dusting. So, that doesn't help. And, although I know op runs should be taken with a grain of salt at range, there were a couple of op Euro runs showing close to 2 feet in northern LOT...which now is nowhere to be found. It's all relative. Plus, if the storm really does weaken/shear out due to the effects of the block, it's likely to take a bit more southern route...which could favor the heart of the city instead of the northern areas. And, even if lake enhancement does occur, it may tend to favor the lakeside counties instead of McHenry and further west. Again - all else being equal, I think there are still concerns in northern LOT, especially away from the lake...just like there are (different) concerns elsewhere in LOT and northern IN and into MI. That's why we need a true spread-the-wealth storm...so that everyone shares in the fun. I initially thought this storm might be it...but it appears to be transitioning to a narrow swath of heavier snowfall for a lucky few. And by heaviest, I mean 10"+. Not meant to complain...just human nature to be on edge a bit, given the snow drought that many of us have experienced over the last 2-3 years.

ding ding ding...regardless of where the exact swath of heavy snow sets up, there are fewer clunker members than before. Not completely eliminated, but progress. And the map is 10:1 ratios. If the 18z and 0z Euro ensembles follow suit, I think we're in business.

Good to see the mean increasing...but it's still under 4". Need to move in the right direction quickly, and eliminate the non-event plumes. Not trying to be a debbie, but hard to shake the fact that a complete non-event is still a possibility.

Good to know that some individual members are 10"+. But we really need to get rid of the clunker ensemble outcomes...needs to happen ASAP. Because there are so many non-event ensemble members, the mean only shows a 3-5" snowfall over much of the metro for the main show...as there's 1-2" included from the WAA snow on Sunday morning). Ugh...

RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

That sounds like interesting work, and very valuable - good for you! Mentioned it in another post - I have a met degree but unfortunately gave up on forecasting out of school. Forecasting didn't come naturally to me, so I threw in the towel prematurely instead of putting the extra effort in. And I was only 21 when I graduated, and was afraid to move somewhere else and be open to the unknown, far away from home. Never really had a good sense at the time of what job opportunities existed in meteorology, outside of forecasting. Was scared to death of being on TV, so never bothered even looking into it. Had a few odd jobs that were weather-related right after graduating...but then ended up getting an MS in math, and (ironically) taught for a few years...and ended up being very comfortable speaking in front of the camera/other people. Life is funny that way, I guess. Now work in insurance. But meteorology has always been my passion, especially winter weather (big surprise, I know).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayambe_(volcano)

Borrowed from the TN forum... Eric Webb @webberweather · 6h This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between.

Good info. Here's the kicker - even in one of Chicago's best winters (2013-14), there were only 83 days with 1" of snow cover. MSP averages 100 days per winter. This is a perfect summary of why I'd be satisfied with MSP's winter climo. P.S. In January 2014, ORD had 33.7" of snow, but the net change in snow depth during the month was zero (!). On 1/1/2014, snow depth was 3"...and on 1/31/2014 it was also 3". And, on top of that, the month was 8.1F below normal. This is why our climo is so frustrating. Even when we're 8 degrees below normal during the coldest month of the year, and receive about 3x the normal snowfall, we can't gain snowpack month-on-month. Just too many thaws. It's really hard to comprehend - I had to triple-check the #'s because it seems so hard to believe. Before everyone jumps on me again...I'm not saying 2013-14 was a bad winter. But it illustrates the crazy gradient in the winter feel between MSP and ORD.

Yep. I was teaching at NIU at the time...just a winter wonderland all month. Extremely cold too, with all of the snow cover.

Thanks RC and Hoosier - I'll jump in. I've always wondered why a January 1999 type storm isn't more common here or nearby. Seemed like nothing special from a meteorological standpoint. All you needed was a large dome of cold air...and then overrunning seemed to provide most of the widespread snowfall...not necessarily a deep low with a perfectly placed deformation band. Also, we had some great radiational cooling set-ups after that storm. Congerville (near Joliet) hit -36, and many spots in NE IL hit the -20s despite not having a deeply cold airmass. At least that's what I recall. Any other widespread share-the-wealth storms in the Midwest, similar to the set-up (if not the snowfall amounts) of Jan 1999?

I believe MSP averages about 60 "wintry" days per year...which I define as a day with a max temp <= 29F AND 2+" of snow cover. Definitely not as many wintry days as I thought...but it's probably closer to 65-70 days outside of the city/airport UHI. For comparison, ORD probably averages around 25 wintry days per year (?). Huge difference. I'd like to calculate the exact 50-year average #'s for ORD and MSP, but unfortunately the Utah State climate data CSV files are nowhere to be found anymore. It used to be very easy to download this data. I've looked at XMACIS too; maybe I'm missing something. Another way to look at it is that a daily min of 0F at ORD is just as common as a 30F min in January, assuming a normal distribution. So, every cold morning is balanced out by a mild morning. At MSP, it's much different, as a 0F min is just as common as a 15F min. And outside of the MSP UHI, it's even better...as a 0F min is just as common as a 10F min. Our resident MSP poster mentioned that, over the last 10 winters, MSP has averaged 100 days with 1"+ of snow cover. ORD has only accomplished this once in history, I believe (1978-79). All of the above information, combined with a lower sun angle, makes the tenor of winter much much better in the MSP area. There's a lot more to it than just total snowfall. I'm disappointed with about 75% of winters here. In the MSP area, I'd probably be disappointed with 25% of winters. Not perfect of course, but much better.

Even Chicago (ORD) has only had 2 days this season with a low temp colder than 18F. It's really shocking...

Incorrect. MSP would be fine, as long as it's outside the UHI. Snow cover and retention is most important, as it looks like winter. Would prefer a bit more than 50" of average annual snowfall, but it will do. There is a huge winter gradient across the midwest, and from my perspective MSP is usually on the right side of it. This is precisely one of the reasons why I get so frustrated with our climo...because significantly better winters are really not that far away as the crow flies.

Hi Cromartie.

Huge difference in retention between MSP and Chicago. One example - MSP has a 70% chance of a white Christmas, Chicago around 45%. Retention difference is even greater in Jan-Feb. I think the DJF average temp difference is about 6-7F, so more margin for error on thaws. Even greater difference outside of the MSP heat island.

Yep, thank you sir. Keeping an eye on it, haven’t been able to find job openings in my field. Post Covid, may be some remote opportunities. My wife lived there for a few years in the 90s when they had some good winters.