Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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Hrmm...
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RE: A potential switch is currently crossing the central into EPAC. A very intense convectively coupled Kelvin wave. This will be making its way over the Atlantic Basin in the 10-14~ day range. Surprisingly there are no signs of blossoming activity in mid-to-long range modeling yet, but that could easily change. Something to keep an eye on..
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Meh...
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It came off the lower 48 on a SSE track off the coast. Yes, you're correct, the feature is not moving SSE now. More S to SSW on a long bend into the southern periphery of building heights to the NW. It also needs to pulse up new convection relatively soon or the possibility of generating a LLC vort max will fade. The MCV may very well dissipate. At any rate, it was worth the mention. We've seen these little systems develop often enough after rolling off the lower 48 and SE.
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An MCS moved SSE off of the ETX/LA coast into the NW GOM. It does have a weak MLC. This feature will turn SW, WSW and then W into the Central or Southern Texas coastline in about 36-48 hrs. So not a lot of time to develop; that being said, if convection persists and a low level vort can develop, there is potential for a TC to form prior to landfall. The upper pattern is favorable enough. At least something to keep an eye on...
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Current Atlantic oceanic heat potential compared to 2017, the last hyperactive season on record. Obviously heat potential and depth of 26ºC isotherm is only part of the equation. You need an anomalously favorable atmosphere and steering pattern. That being said, if the atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin does become more favorable in the coming weeks, the basin does look primed. July, 17th, 2017: Current: Now the question remains what atmospheric patterns will be in place for the last half of the Atlantic Hurricane season? 2017 had a relatively neutral ENSO but a positive AMO. NAO trended positive and IOD trended negative by September when all hell broke lose. Interestingly, a similar scenario may be unfolding by then but with an actual negative ENSO in place. We do not have a full blown negative ENSO yet, but it is trending that way.
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Vertical profiles for most of the Caribbean and MDR are on point right now for TC support, however, SAL in the mid-to-lower levels and sinking air is keeping things quiet in the short-term. This is an ominous sign for when more favorable 200 mb support and 900 to 500 hPa lift begins to creep in by August however. I do expect things to go active and ramp up in a hurry when they do.
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Late July into the first week of August just might be the kickoff. Signs of a favorable MJO coming into play. Easterly winds will dominate the tropical Pacific region, reinforcing La Niña; at the same time, due to a robust standing wave over the Western Indian Ocean and East African highlands, convection should continue to propagate westward with persistent wave breaking, which will feed tropical waves into Eastern Atlantic and MDR:
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JMA on board for an active Aug-Oct throughout the Atlantic Basin and MDR.
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The proverbial calm before the storm?...
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The naming of Winter storms has always been controversial due to unwarranted exemplification of ETs/mid-latitudinal storms, their frequency of occurrence, and hype that overwhelmingly isn't required from a human impact and safety standpoint. The naming of Tropical Cyclones, on the other hand, is entirely warranted due to those same phenomenon. We name them because they can be inherently dangerous. Sure, some are just a maritime nuisance. Also, sure, with better RS technology, better satellite resolutions and data gathering, we classify TCs that likely wouldn't even get noticed several decades ago. But sticking to the rules of what gets classified, it would be silly to keep them unclassified merely because they are weak, less substantial/impactful events, or even subtropical. We name TCs for important reasons, hard to argue against that. But we also need to stick to the rules. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified, period. I realize the tongue-in-cheek on the off-topic here. But it's worth reminding and pointing out why NOAA/NHC handles TC classifications the way they do, and also why private companies naming mid-latitudal ETs is ridiculous and of little credence beyond attention generation and money for their service platforms. It's hardly a matter of public safety and science. Major differences in mission strategy and purpose here.
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Another healthy wave south of the Verdes. Easterlies are still a bit lopsided towards the 700 hPa level. But the wave train continues. Eventually easterly trades are going to better align as Azores ridging takes its seasonal build/shift westward into an ECONUS WAR/SER; we already have ENS support for strong interior CONUS 600 dm heights incoming; and if these waves continue training, ITCZ wave breaking and an axii is inevitably going to close off at the surface and stack. The vigor in the WAM and ITCZ needs to be paid attention. We are mere weeks away from modeled increasing MDR favoribility. If that happens sooner, expect one of these waves to develop into our first MDR TC before August.
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Good thread on current anomalous upper tropospheric temperature profiles that may persist into the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season. Generally, cooler upper profiles aid in colder cloudtops and more intense convection. May also aid in upper divergence for 400-200 hPa anti-cyclones.
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The wave I posted above when it rolled off Africa is still making its way across the western MDR at a low latitude. It's nothing special, there may be some weak mid-level vorticity. It also isn't the sharpest of wave axii. But it has a favorable upper environment and if convection can coalesce to tighten vorticity or close off a surface low, could be interesting in the southern Antilles and deep Caribbean later this week.
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The MCV accociated with the old boundary draped off the ECONUS might be forming an LLC under the current MCS complex that went up this evening. Note the circular pattern of the lightning near the highest cloud tops. Possible curved banding forming might be the beginnings of an LLC and we may get a named system out of this sooner than later if it holds together.
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Fairly healthy wave axis with an MCS mid-level vort max south of the Verdes. Who knows if it will persist long with the SAL locked in to its NW. But interesting nonetheless. 12Z ECMWF does have a solution or two that closes off a surface low but there's negligible model support beyond that.
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
Windspeed replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Classic La Niña taking shape. Questions remain on strength and coverage, especially in 3.4, but it is no doubt kicking in at this point. I suspect even a moderate La Niña would be a safe call, but still can't rule out a --ENSO either.
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That particular model animation shows Azore's ridging below the 700 hPa layer of the atmosphere backing down over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Surface-to-mid level pressures weaken slightly, retreating poleward. This eases low-level easterlies off Africa, which, in turn, limits SAL propagation westward off Africa. Additionally the ITCZ would become less suppressed south and gain some latitude within that pressure regime. This would help increase instability along the MDR, with better low-level convergence for convection, especially if the MJO is in a favorable phase aloft. Tropical wave tracks would also gain some latitude with the decrease in pressure heights, and be able to tap into moisture feed from the ITCZ. We generally see this pattern of strong Azores ridging back down in August, not early July. Typically a beefy late Spring to middle Summer eastern Atlantic Azores ridge is why we generally see SAL and too amped a low-level easterly jet to favor any MDR development. That, and upper level shear and vorticity is not yet favorable. At any rate, the pattern in the animation above may coincide with a favorable MJO [see below] and a relaxation of upper level wind shear across the Caribbean and lower MDR as well.
