J.Spin

From around 1975 to 1980 I lived in the Buzzards Bay area. I was pretty young and didn’t really have much of a clue about weather, but I do remember day after day after day throughout the winter of getting up for school hoping to see at least some white ground… and being disappointed most of the time. We certainly had snow in the Blizzard of ‘78, but that seemed to be a one-off sort of deal. I’m sure that area averages even less snow than the Boston area, but my impressions from then and the general discussions I see on here are that SNE climate, especially the closer you get to the coast, is more about the occasional very big storm due to the ocean influence vs. a sustained wintry climate. Big storms can be neat, but a consistently wintry climate seems far more important for supporting reliable winter recreation, and it’s definitely more appealing to me. NNE in general is pretty solid in that department because of latitude and generally being away from direct coastal influence, but I’m still amazed by the massive increase in snowfall amounts, number of storms, increased snowpack, etc. that the mountains give on top of that. It was always obvious to me that the higher elevations of the mountains themselves had significantly more snow than the Champlain Valley, but I had no idea just how much even the mountain valleys had increases in all those elements of winter vs. the broader NNE valleys. Anyway, the season here was definitely below average on snowfall. It wasn’t horribly low, but after the previous three solid seasons with an average snowfall >180” as you can see on the updated chart below, it was notable. Using C as an average, and snowfall being right on that C-/D+ border, it was easy to push it to the D+ with things like SDD, max snow depth, and largest storm being below average. The length of the accumulating snowfall season was above average because of the May snows, and we had an above average number of storms at 55, but those aspects don’t really appear to be enough to counteract the deficiencies.

Isn’t this literally the day the big hot period starts? Then on Friday everyone is supposed to bump that discussion in the June thread for further review? This must be the NNE version of hot because it really doesn’t seem too bad. I think most of us would be fine with more of this sort of stuff this summer.

I can see there are some 0.4” to 0.6” readings southward along the western slopes and spine a bit south of here, but I guess there weren’t any other CoCoRaHS sites quite in the hotspots of those storms. Most of the time it doesn’t seem like the mountain valleys around here have to worry too much about really drying out and browning up the grass, since there’s typically extra moisture, more clouds, or cooler temperatures vs, the broad valleys. But there are still soil differences and water retention issues for certain yards, so it can happen.

We had a second thunderstorm overnight that dropped some additional liquid. My wife and I woke up briefly from some thunder, but I went right back to sleep and didn’t look at the radar to get a sense for the localization of that storm. Looking back at some radar, it seems as though that storm was around 4:00 A.M. as part of a more typical line of storms. I could see on the radar last night that there was a bunch of additional storms off to our northwest, probably out ahead of that cold front that’s moving into the area. We picked up an additional 0.41” of rain from that later system, so the total picked up by our gauge was 2.11” this morning. Only some of the CoCoRaHS numbers are in thus far, but it’s certainly going to show quite a patchwork of different totals around here.

Yeah, we definitely seem to get convergence at times with the lift all around and the moisture funneling through the gap. I’m sure it’s a factor in what gives us both the relatively large seasonal snowfall and total liquid numbers around here at fairly modest elevations. Rain in the gauge was from this event was 1.70” when I checked a little while ago, with a few sprinkles still continuing. It actually came at a reasonable pace of probably a bit more than an inch an hour, so it didn’t cause any notable drainage issues in my survey of the property. We actually had a brief shower last night – it wasn’t enough to hit 0.01”, but it does make this the 8th day in a row with at least trace of liquid, and 2.62” of liquid during the stretch. June rainfall is off to a decent start now with this event, and June is actually the wettest month here according to my data, averaging over 7 inches of liquid. I think the month is relatively wet here because we have multiple routes to getting the moisture – we can still have residual fall/winter/spring-style upslope precipitation, but we also get some of these early summery pop up systems. Whatever the case, something conspires to give June an average of 2 inches more liquid than either May or July here. I’m not sure if that will ultimately average out lower with a longer data set, but with a decade of rainfall data, year upon year upon year, June towers over May and July. Thus far, I’ve only had two instances of May or July having more liquid than the corresponding June – a couple of times May had more, but that’s it so far.

I suspect we’ll have over an inch of liquid – it was around 0.85” when I was out checking for any washouts around 9:00 P.M. The radar suggests we’re just about done with it now, so I’ll get a total in a little bit:

Did you see the one on radar that was sitting over the spine around Sugarbush/Buels Gore/MRG today? It really looked like another one of those terrain-influenced events because it just hung there and kept rebuilding and rebuilding over the spine for a couple of hours in the same spot. In the radar grab below I’ve only got its remnants as it finally pulled east, but we’ve got one building over out part or the spine now:

Ha, that’s certainly related to what I wrote yesterday. I also fixed up your text a bit to make it a little more of a Mansfield/Northern Greens fit.

Indeed, things weren’t quite as dry over here (the 3.90” of liquid equivalent equated to 78% of average), and we had 1.44” in the second half of the month. What we did have was an impressively dry period from the 17th through the 29th, with only two traces of liquid in a 13-day stretch. I’m sure there have been similar stretches around here at points in the past, but it’s definitely uncommon for us to go that long without more than a trace. I’m usually struggling to find a dry 24 to 48-hour window to put down lawn treatments, and I put some down at the beginning of that dry “window” this year to find that I was really at the other end of the extreme. Ironically, we had to start looking for rains so the treatment could soak in and I could get in that first mowing. PF can probably speak to his experience, but from what I’ve seen, it’s probably July and August (potentially extending into September sometimes depending on when a more autumnal pattern shows itself) that represent the nadir period in our liquid boost from the moist northwest flow. Obviously it depends on the year, but I typically find that the upslope flow can carry into June, then by July we seem to move into a more convective type of “summery” precipitation pattern. There can certainly still be a moisture boost during that midsummer period around here when a storm hits the mountains and drops extra liquid, but it’s not as consistently obvious as it is when we’re getting the northwest flow. Things have definitely switched up in the past week though, as today will be the 6th day in a row with measurable precipitation here, and we’re closing in on an inch of liquid in total. I hadn’t noticed any issues with the lawn during the dry spell, but with this liquid soaking in the fertilizer, it’s definitely exploding with growth now. There’s certainly that northwest flow “feel” on the radar with respect to the rain we’re currently getting:

May Totals Accumulating Storms: 3 Snowfall: 5.7” Liquid Equivalent: 3.90” Total liquid for the month was more than an inch below average, but it was certainly an interesting May for winter weather. Some notable aspects in the data set thus far were: · First May with three accumulating snowstorms · Highest May snowfall total · First May with more snowfall that the preceding April That should be just about it for the active snow season, so I’ll start putting together some of those data now that we’re getting into the warm season. Despite the May liquid being a bit low, calendar year liquid through May was at 19.66”, which is pretty close to the mean value I have of 19.93” for this site.

I don’t typically expect any snow in June down at our elevation, so barring some strange occurrence, 142.1” of snow will be the total this season. That’s -0.34 σ, which puts it literally right on the D+/C- border. Being in that spot gives one a lot of flexibility to push it in either direction based on other snow parameters, but by the numbers, it looks like there are far fewer stats coming in above average than below. A notable example would be SDD, which came in at -0.60 σ, so that certainly has one leaning toward the D+.

It’s interesting to hear that perspective. People often come up to the mountains for the cool views, weather, relaxation, recreation, etc., but you can’t necessarily get a feel for the entire chill vibe in just a visit. We found it very interesting when we lived in Montana that from out there, many people’s perception of the lifestyle in the east was this sort of crowded, traffic-filled, megalopolis/suburbia, rat-race existence. I’m not sure if this is because in terms of raw population numbers, most people they’d met, or popular culture they’d seen, gave them that impression. We’d have to explain to them that we were from VT, which had essentially the same lifestyle/vibe as we encountered in MT. Pointing out to them that our entire state had a smaller population than many of the big eastern cities they’d heard of was one way of starting to get the point across.

This is nicely stated, and that’s the reality of the situation. It seems that most people appreciate the added comfort of some humidity when it comes to water sports, but few people are going to fanatically prioritize having excessively high dew points to deal with sticky discomfort for the remaining 99% of life just for that minor perk. When the HHH weather comes, that’s Mother Nature telling you it’s a good time to swim. As folks have mentioned, it’s those overnight lows that make or break it though, and if you live in an area that doesn’t cool down at night, you’re going to pay the price. Yeah the “install” thing is sort of thrown around as a gag, but people don’t typically put those things in their windows unless they have to… in order to get the temperature and humidity back to the levels they actually want.

Yes, a great contender. Mount Ascutney has some impressive vertical relief (2,270’ of clean prominence via Peakbagger), and indeed the 3,130’ peak looks quite imposing when you’re traveling in the immediate valleys around there. The most recent annual snowfall average I have for Ascutney on my Vermont ski areas page is 175”, which is pretty paltry for a 3,000’+ location in NNE. Actually, while I was there I saw a few other annual snowfall numbers from the southern part of the state that would certainly be contenders as well depending on the elevations these numbers are taken from: Bromley (145″) Magic Mountain (145″) Mount Snow (158″)

Yeah, when thinking in terms of elevation, there’s a phrase people use to describe the snowfall around here:

If this is it for snow we’ll be at 142.1” on the season, coming in about 10% below average, so roughly in line with your anecdotal thoughts for the area. I guess we were sort of “due” for something below average, because I just ran the numbers, and the previous three seasons prior to this one averaged 182.3”, which is a solid run. This season has been interesting for its late season events – this is the first time we’ve had three accumulating storms in May, and the first time we’ve ever recorded more snow in May than in April.

It was great the way the storm had pulled away to brilliant blue May skies by morning – with another amazing aspect being that the temperatures were in the 20s F, so the snow wasn’t even melting in that sunshine.

A few shots from the Bolton Valley area today:

From the latest Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Plot at Matthew Parrilla’s site, you can really see how the Mansfield snowpack has sort of been toddling along at 60 inches or so since way back in the beginning of February. There were a couple of spikes up into the 70 to 80-inch range, but it’s really been pretty steady for over three months now. It’s not in record territory or anything, but it’s certainly above average (by more than two feet) with the help of the fairly cool April and May.

Here’s the elevation profile for accumulations I saw for this most recent storm in the Bolton Valley area this morning: 340’: 0.5” 1,000’: 1” 1,500’: 2” 2,000’: 3-4” 2,500’: 7-8” 2,800’: 8-9” 3,100’: 9-10” As you can see, the largest increases in depths seemed to come from a bit below 2,000’ up to about the 2,500’ range before tapering down. The storm was probably mostly snow above 2,500’, and with 1.21” of L.E. down here at the house, it was a decent resurfacing above 2,000’, and a very solid, “no worries” type of resurfacing above 2,500’. Essentially all the snow above 1,500’ was winter-dry, and temperatures were still in the 20s F this morning from probably 1,500’ on up. I’ll have to look back at all the April and May storms we’ve had, but this was some of the driest/wintriest snow I can recall in the past few storms.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.10” L.E. This has been an impressively moist system for the relatively short time it’s been affecting the area – I was out for an MTB ride midafternoon and it was just starting to rain, and now we’ve already had 1.10” of liquid equivalent. At elevations where it’s been all, or mostly snow, it’s going to be quite a substantial resurfacing of the slopes. We’re supposed to drop to around the freezing mark down here in the valley, and lows are projected in the 20s F at elevation, so we’ll have to see how much the snow dries out and how much more falls with respect to the potential for quality turns. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.37 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.4 Snow Density: 41.1% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

That’s good to know about the app. And yeah, this system has definitely had the right conditions around here for large flakes – we’ve had flakes up to 3” across at times this evening.

I saw your post about the Sugarbush mountain cams being down, and I didn’t see them either when I checked earlier today, but maybe the BTV NWS has access to them: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 536 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Snow has been occurring with sfc temps in the 35 to 38 degree range. Web cam atop Sugarbush shows snowfall approaching 6 inches at 3900 feet, also noted Buels Gore at 2300 feet has several inches, so a few slick spots above 1800 feet is possible this evening acrs central/northern VT, into the NEK. We’ve had about 0.5-1.0” of accumulation here at the house at 500’ so far on just about all surfaces, so the snow level has actually dropped pretty low.

The rain just changed over to snow down here at the house, so snow levels are certainly dropping.

I haven’t really seen any talk about the snow with this next system, but with the way it’s pouring with temperatures dropping into the 30s F way down at this low in the valleys, I wasn’t surprised to see that it’s pounding snow at elevation. Both the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Cam and MRG Bird Cage Cam are showing impressive snowfall rates, and the local radar is certainly lit up: