J.Spin

I finished up the trip report from our tour on Saturday, so I’m passing along a few pictures. I’m sure the snow will have consolidated a bit since we’ve had some above freezing temperatures over the past couple of days, but these will give you the general idea. The elevations around here look like they’ll get some decent snow, so the backcountry touring should be great atop the already existing base. The full report can be accessed by the linked text.

Early this morning I got a text alert that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Watch in association with the upcoming storm this week. The graphical point forecast for our location looks fairly active and wintry over the next few days, and suggests 3-6” of snow through Thursday, with perhaps a bit more in the Friday timeframe.

I’ve actually been considering a trip down to Brandon Gap, but thus far I’ve been staying up here in the Northern Greens because I’ve been unsure of the quality of the powder farther south. I was just out on the Bolton Valley Backcountry Network yesterday though, and the conditions were excellent. I’d actually describe the conditions as even better than what we encountered last Saturday – and that already wasn’t too shabby: The powder skiing then was decent, but there was a marginal buried crust present in some areas that knocked the overall feel down a notch. The mountains have had several more inches of snow since then though, and when I was out for a tour yesterday afternoon with my son, we didn’t encounter any signs of it because it’s probably buried deep enough now. Surface powder depths we found were right around 20 inches before getting down to the base, which is basically what we found last weekend. The powder was more consistent yesterday though with any crust buried deeper. That 20 inches of powder is fairly settled at this point of course, so we’re not talking about sinking down 20 inches into fresh champagne, you’re more like 6 to 12 inches down in the powder, but the rest is serving as fantastic cushion above the base. I haven’t finished up my report yet, but I’ll send along a bit more info and some pictures when I do. The upcoming storm actually looks pretty nice for the mountains around here from what I’ve seen. There’s likely going to be some mixed precipitation, but unless things change dramatically it looks like another nice gain for the snowpack. Some of the models also show extended upslope snow on the back side of the cycle.

I’d still argue that’s an absolutely insurmountable elevation difference for any sort of apples to apples comparison though, unless you guys have a record of similar annual snowfall in the past or something.

I’ve been a bit busy this week with other stuff, but on Sunday we headed over to Lake Morey Resort, so I wanted to pass along some images. A big feature there is of course the 4.5-mile skating loop around the lake, which is apparently the longest skating trail in the United States, but it’s a classic NNE experience in general for those who haven’t been yet.

Right, my data are from the Waterbury area, more specifically along the Waterbury/Bolton line to the west of town along the spine of the Greens. Because of that location, our site does a decent job of mirroring what goes on at some of the local resorts like Stowe. The plot of the snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake gives a good sense for how the season has gone. That stretch of below average depths played out sort of how you’d expect – conditions were perhaps a bit below average, but that’s really not all that bad around here. Hitting that storm (Winter Storm Kade) earlier this month was a good time to be around here though – it was a nice shot of snow that actually got the snow depths up near average as you can see on the plot.

Event totals: 2.1” Snow/0.16” L.E. Everything cleared out today, so these should be the final totals for this event. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 16.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches

I see we picked up another 0.6” from that burst – pretty fluffy because it’s settling rather quickly. Mansfield is hidden again behind snowfall and I see on the radar that there’s some additional shots of moisture moving into the area:

Roger that, we had that mist as well around observations time yesterday evening. It was really brief in this area though and quickly turned back to snow - I couldn’t even detect it when I was clearing the snow off the webcam board this morning. We had another round of snow this morning, which brings the total to 1.7” for the event. That’s a touch below the 2-4” in the point forecast, but I find the lower end of the range is common in these types of events with more southerly component to the flow and small flakes/snow grains.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 36.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.10” L.E. The snow accumulations in the Burlington area seemed similar to what I found here in Waterbury, but in line with what I saw on the way into town this morning, there was essentially no visible accumulation in the Richmond area by I-89. I’m guessing it was due to downsloping along the western slopes of the Greens. The snow had stopped and we just had some mist falling at observations time here at the house, but not long after that it changed back to snow and we’ve had light snow falling here since that point. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 31.3 F Sky: Mist Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches

The first flakes I saw this morning at the house in Waterbury appeared around 7:15 A.M. or so, and it was certainly picking up in intensity by the time I was leaving around 7:45 A.M. As I headed west though, the snow stopped altogether, which may be due to some of that downsloping that the modeling shows for the western slopes. There was nothing going on here in Burlington when I arrived around 8:30 A.M., but there’s a steady light snow out there now.

I don’t really track temperatures, my primary focus is snowfall, but I do also have snowpack data for our site. From what I’ve heard, temperatures have been above normal recently as mreaves indicated. I think Powderfreak said our area was +7 F for January? He, or others that follow temperatures, may have some other numbers to fill you in here as well if they get the chance. As long as they don’t drastically affect snowfall/snowpack/snow quality, warmer midwinter temperatures are a plus in my book – that’s especially the case in January around here. Our average winter temperatures in January are cold enough, and below average is brutal if you’re going to be out on the slopes (or just living everyday life). I believe November temperatures were below average in this area though. That’s a good time to have below average temperatures around here, and it was likely a plus in terms of snowfall as I’ll mention below. I don’t track snowpack in too much detail, but I have our daily depth data since I report it to CoCoRaHS. Using my current data set, mean snow depth days (SDD) through Feb 17 at our site are 786.4, and currently we’re at 585.0, which is 74.4% of average. That’s pretty in line with how it’s felt with respect to snowpack. Although our continuous winter snowpack did start on the early side (November 8th) this season, probably aided by the below average November temperatures, the depth has felt well below average until just recently when we got that shot from Winter Storm Kade earlier this month. It took a storm like that, with 17.0” snow/1.86” liquid to get things back to average. Currently our snowpack depth is reading 15.5”, which is actually just a few inches below average, and it’s generally been hanging around that mark for the past week or so. I’ve added a plot below that gives one sense of how the season’s snowfall has been around here. It shows the running deviation in snowfall (± inches) relative to the cumulative seasonal average for our site. November snowfall here was actually only a few inches above average, but a good chunk of it came so early (7.1” from a storm on 11/7, and then another 5.1” from Winter Storm Caleb on 11/10) that it put us well ahead of average as the positive deviation spike in early November shows in the plot. December snowfall was slightly below average overall, so you can see that the positive deviation spike hung on, but faded toward the end of the month. January snowfall was a bit below average, but overall not bad, and you can see that the notable negative deviation spike developed at the end of the month into the start of February. So far February has sort of been like the other months, keeping things about average overall with just a slight drop below average as of late. Average snowfall for our site through today is 106.3”, and we’re just a couple of inches behind that.

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.02” L.E. This first event has always been shown as fairly weak in the modeling, but when I heard the plow go by this morning I assumed we’d picked up something. I found 0.7” of fluffy snow on the boards, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion assigned it to a weak cold front traversing the area. I’m not sure exactly when the snow fell, but I could tell that the accumulation had settled a bit from what it had initially been – the overall surface still had the subtle ridges and valleys that come from irregular accumulations or larger flakes and flake clusters, but it had the smoothed over look in the way that initially dendritic accumulations settle down. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 22.5 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches The next system is still expected to affect the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period, with 2-4” in the point forecast here. Beyond that through the weekend, the BTV NWS says to watch for a couple of upper level shortwaves traversing overhead, but in general the weather will be quieter. My records indicate that we’ve just passed the two-thirds point in the snowfall season, so at this point we’ve got roughly a third of the way to go on average. A check on seasonal snowfall here shows the mean for today at 106.3”, and we’re just a bit behind that pace at 104.4” with this morning’s snow included in the total.

Indeed, snowfall and snow depths are nothing outrageous at the moment, but they’re right around average, and average is pretty nice this time of year. We headed up for some turns at Bolton yesterday afternoon once temperatures warmed up, so I can pass along a snowpack/conditions report and some images. We’ve had roughly five systems go into the snowpack at this point above the main subsurface, starting with Winter Storm Kade that brought the bulk of it, and then four additional events which included the snows from Winter Storm Lamont and Winter Storm Mabel. For powder depths above the old base, our checks generally revealed depths of 20 to 22 inches. There was a breakable crust present within the snow from some mixed precipitation that occurred during Winter Storm Mabel. In some areas the crust was absent altogether, and in others it was anywhere from 2 to 8 inches down in the snowpack. The presence and depth of the crust depended on things like aspect, wind effects, and protection from that part or the storm by trees or other terrain features. Overall the powder skiing was good, although of course not up to the level of last Saturday with the fresh snow from Winter Storm Kade. The crust is thin enough that it’s breakable, and buried enough that it’s inconsequential in many spots, but it definitely makes the powder skiing variable enough that you have to be on your toes and you can’t expect to be floating through bottomless champagne on every turn. So the off piste powder skiing is certainly good, but that variability and the fact that the bulk of it isn’t super “fresh” right now means that it’s not really absolute top tier. With roughly 60 inches at the stake, base depths are excellent, and it looks like we’ve got a chance for a bit of snow today into tomorrow, and then a slightly larger system in the Tuesday timeframe. I’ve got a few shots from yesterday below, and the full report can be access via the text links.

I was just checking on the NOHRSC plots for our site, and on the SWE plot you can really see how the past week or so has provided an impressive injection of liquid into the snowpack. I set the start date for the plot at 1/29, the last time I did an actual coring of the snowpack, and the SWE was 2.08” at that point. I haven’t cored since then, but the modeling shows that the SWE has almost doubled thanks to Winter Storm Kade and the subsequent smaller events: Mean snowpack depth at our site for this date is close to 20”, so the current depth is just a bit on the low side, but well within one S.D. of the mean. Snowfall for the month thus far is 21.5”, which is just shy of average pace, so overall it’s been a decent first half of the month.

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.14” L.E. There’s still a bit of arctic dust falling this morning, although I’m not sure if that will result in any substantial accumulation beyond a trace. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 1.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.12” L.E. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.3 Snow Density: 16.0% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

I don’t follow temperatures that closely, so it was very surprising when you posted how the area was +7 for January and that’s still below freezing for the average high temp. I guess that shows how cold the average temperatures are up here. We’re still running right around average with respect to snowfall, so it doesn’t seem like the above average temperatures were overly detrimental to the snowfall. I much prefer these types of winters where the temperatures may be more marginal, but the storm track is nearby. We’ve had the occasional taste of subzero temperatures to keep things interesting, but they’ve moved on pretty quickly to get us back to something more comfortable for skiing.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. I found 0.2” of snow on the boards this morning in association with this next system, which has been named Winter Storm Mabel. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

Early this morning I received a text about an upcoming Winter Weather Advisory for our county. There’s actually quite a patchwork of advisories out there in the area, with what looks like the lower valleys omitted. Our point forecast suggest a storm total somewhere in the 3-5” range, which seems consistent with the BTV NWS map.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.01” L.E. The BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates that tonight’s snow is from the next northern stream shortwave, so this is being recorded as a different event from the one earlier today. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 33.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Our next round of snow came into the area starting late last night with the current system known as Winter Storm Lamont. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 18.6 Snow Density: 5.4% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches