J.Spin

Yeah, we hadn’t really seen any snow with this system yet down here at 500’ in the Winooski Valley, but we did start getting some flakes and accumulation this morning at some point in the 8:00 A.M. to 8:30 A.M. range.

I see on Bolton’s webcams that the precipitation is all snow up at Vista Peak at 3,150’ and even down at 2,100’ at the main base. Since this is expected to be the warmer part or the storm, that’s a good sign with respect to getting some decent accumulations out of this event to support turns. I haven’t seen any flakes down here at 500’ yet, but we’re still fairly warm in the valley.

Yeah, I saw that winter alerts had gone up in the latest updates. Our point forecast here calls for something in the 3-6” range, which seems to jive with what they’ve got in the projected accumulations map. If we’ve got the potential for accumulations down at 500’, then you know the mountains have the potential to do well, as the latest Mansfield point forecast would suggest: Thursday Snow showers, mainly before noon, then snow after noon. High near 36. Very windy, with a south wind 25 to 35 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Very windy, with a west wind 45 to 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Snow. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. The latest BTV NWS alerts and accumulations maps are below, with some of that 12-18” shading along the spine in the Bolton-Mansfield stretch:

The BTV NWS has a headline going for the event on their home page, and I’ve pasted their most recent projected accumulations map below. The shading in the current iteration of the map suggests a general 8-12” along the spine for the Northern Greens, and it looks like it’s just getting into that 12-18” shading up near Jay Peak.

It’s definitely becoming potent in some of the modeling, and the BTV NWS is starting to talk about it in their discussions: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1030 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...setup is looking increasingly favorable for some snow accumulations in higher terrain as upper- level low stall and pivots over the forecast area. Storm total snow through Friday will be in the 2 to 5 inch range for much of the Northeast Kingdom and portions of the northern Adirondacks. Higher peaks (generally 1500 ft and above) of the NEK and northern Greens have the potential for 6+ inches. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for portions of northern Vermont, but given that the heavier accumulations will be restricted to 1500 ft and above, have elected to hold off any headlines at this point.

When I checked yesterday at observations time, the last of the snow had disappeared in the yard, so April 6th marked the final day of the seasonal snowpack. The numbers here indicate that mean melt out is April 15th, ± 11 days, so this year was early, but within 1 S.D. of the mean. Duration of the continuous snowpack this season ended up being 151 days, which was longer than average because of the early start, but also within 1 S.D. of the mean. Despite being behind average snowfall pace right now by over 20 inches, this season wound up being quite respectable in that snowpack duration category, ranking in 4th place out of the 14 seasons in my records.

March Totals Accumulating Storms: 7 Snowfall: 12.9” Liquid Equivalent: 3.34” March mean and median snowfall here at our site are both right around 30 inches, so this March was definitely somewhat lean in that department, running 0.86 S.D. below average. This March certainly won’t go down as a “middle of the pack” type of month, but it’s definitely not in with the “bottom of the barrel” type seasons like ‘09-‘10 (2.1”) and ’15-‘16 (5.7”) either. It even edged out ‘08-‘09 (12.6”), although it certainly falls in that group with seasons like ’11-‘12 (14.2”) and ’14-‘15 (17.2”). Total liquid for the month was a bit below the mean (3.67”), but pretty typical overall. The total number of accumulating snowstorms was actually right about the average (~7.5). Now that we’re on to April, the yard snowpack is dwindling and I suspect the last vestiges will be gone within a few days. It will likely disappear earlier than average (4/15), but it already looks like it’s going to persist longer than some of the very early seasons like ‘09-‘10 (4/3). This season had a very early snowpack start though (11/8), so the duration of the continuous winter snowpack here in the yard is already at 148 days and beyond the average duration.

Nice, glad to hear you got out into the backcountry. I was actually thinking of touring on the Bolton BC Network when we were out the other day – with so many people off from work, the resort trails are getting more traffic than usual. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still 60 inches, and the forecast shows various chances for snow in the higher elevations over the next week. Even if none of the snows are very substantial, there don’t seem to be any overly warm temperatures, so the snowpack at elevation shouldn’t be going anywhere. I’m hoping we get some more rounds of spring storms with accumulations like this last one – it’s kind of strange having the resorts closed here in March, but it’s presenting some unique opportunities. The time of year is always so great with the deep snowpack and longer days, and the warm spring skiing is certainly fun, but the spring powder days have such a cool vibe – you get a piece of winter sort of transplanted into spring, atop what is typically the deepest base of the season!

With the fresh powder from Winter Storm Quincy, my younger son and I headed out for a ski tour at Bolton Valley yesterday, so I can pass along some snow updates and images. Depth checks of the new snow at 1,500’, 2,000’, and even up above 3,000’ were all essentially the same in the 7 to 8” range. That’s essentially the same as what we picked up at the house, so overall, there really didn’t seem to be much change in accumulation around here from 500’ on up to above 3,000’. Temperatures stayed well below freezing even at 2,000’, and probably even down to 1,500’, so the turns were very nice. The powder was of medium to perhaps slightly higher density, the snow had a nice surfy consistency, with enough buoyancy for bottomless turns on even steep pitches in the black diamond range. You could certainly hit bottom on the very steepest pitches, but we focused on medium-angle terrain and it was bottomless all the way. With many people not going to work right now as the state strives to minimize the spread of COVID-19, and a fresh dump of powder on the slopes, I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised at how many people were out for turns. The number of people touring seemed notable though – between Timberline and the Village, there were at least several dozen cars out there. Despite the number of people up at the resort, it was clear that even resort ski touring is still a great activity for social distancing. As is typically the case, we actually saw only a few people while we were out on the hill, and you still never had to go within 50 feet of anyone if you didn’t want to. A few shots from the tour:

That’s actually what we do a lot throughout the winter – simply clear the plow berm at the end of the driveway with shovels because that’s the only thing really presenting an issue. I do have neighbors who clean up just about every storm, and with the climate here giving an average of 50 storms a season with a mean snowfall per storm of 3.2 inches, you can imagine that’s going to be a lot of work. I really prefer to save the wear and tear on the equipment, impact on the environment, and the time required to get it done. For folks that enjoy the shoveling as an activity or exercise, you can certainly get plenty of it here throughout the winter, but I’d rather just head out and go for a ski tour to make use of the snow.

Indeed, this time of year it's especially undesirable to run the snow thrower when the driveway gravel isn't frozen in place. That kind of sets the threshold for actually clearing accumulations even a bit higher. We’ve got a solid slope on the driveway, but thankfully we’re running Subarus with Nokian WR G3s or WR G4s on them, so unless they start to struggle we typically just pack it down.

Totals here were 8.7” snow from 0.70” L.E., which at least in terms of snowfall was definitely above the initial NWS forecast. I didn’t run the snow thrower though – even in midwinter this would have potentially been borderline for a clearing depending on how packed the snow on the driveway was below it. In this case the driveway was essentially clear of snow to begin with, so this is just serving as a new base layer – and its’ nearing the end of March now, so it’s eventually going to melt. I took a look backward in my data for spring storms, and the one of significance I hit first was from last year on 3/21 to 3/23. I guess that one is sort of on the border for actually being in spring. Data for that one was 12.5” from 1.99 L.E., so obviously a lot more potent and dense with respect to snowfall, and I see it brought 2 to 3 feet of snow to the local mountains. This recent storm has certainly helped with respect to seasonal snowfall, but we’re still about 14 inches behind average pace due to the lackluster snowfall for much of the month. Average snowfall from this point on is about 10 inches here at our site. We’d need about double that to really get close in to average snowfall, but even if we stop at this point, the season would only be ~0.6 S.D. below the mean.

Event totals: 8.7” Snow/0.70” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 8.1” Snow/0.65” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 5.8 inches New Liquid: 0.44 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.2 Snow Density: 7.6% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

I got a text alert around 7:30 P.M. that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Warning here in Washington Country, no doubt due to the continued heavy snowfall. The BTV NWS has updated their maps as well, which I’ve included below. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 758 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 748 PM EDT Monday...Well its been an extremely busy evening here at the office, as we expanded the advisories north to the international border and placed central/southern cwa into winter storm warnings. Expecting storm total of 2 to 6 inches advisory and 4 to 8 inches in warnings, with many reports of 6 inches or so from Newcomb to Port Henry to Orwell to Bridport. A meso- band developed and moved further north than anticipated, causing snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. We picked up 2.9 inches in 1 hour here at BTV during this band. Moving forward expect this initial band to lift northeast of our cwa by 02z, however, some additional lighter bands of snow will continue to impact central/southern cwa thru midnight or so. Have updated snowfall maps and qpf to match our thinking.

I saw this band approaching on the radar, and the snowfall rate turned out to be pretty robust as it came through here. I’d cleared the snowboards at 6:00 P.M., and as of 6:30 P.M. there was already an addition 2.6” of accumulation, so the snowfall was in excess of 5”/hr. during that period.

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0 Snow Density: 9.1% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps for the current storm, which has been given the name Winter Storm Quincy by TWC. There aren’t really any winter weather alerts this far north in the state, but I have seen some fairly steady snow this afternoon in the Burlington and Waterbury areas. The projected accumulations map has us in the 3-4” range, and the point forecast suggests something in the 2-4” range, so the agreement is fairly good there.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 25.2 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 42.6 F Sky: Sprinkles/Mist Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.4 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5 Snow Density: 5.7% H2O Temperature: 30.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Thanks for the great thoughts PF; it indeed sounds decent luck in the valleys with synoptic storms, and a dearth of bread and butter events/cyclonic backside flow is a combination that could explain the interesting valley/mountain snowfall distribution we’ve seen.

As I recall, you’re a touch north of me and PF with respect to latitude, but it still sounds like snowfall is a little more behind average pace over there. From what I’ve seen, the next chances for snow still appear to be the chance for a touch on the back side of this current system, and then that late week one you mentioned. The one later this week definitely has some potential for snow in the elevations at the moment per the BTV NWS forecast discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 726 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While main surface low tracks well north of the region, models indicate the potential for a secondary low to form along the main frontal boundary. Overall, this system looks not too shabby with nose of ~160kt 300mb jet tracking across western NY into New England, upper trough becomes negatively tilted and a fairly strong thermal boundary is apparent at 700mb. The best dynamics 9previously mentioned) arrive toward 18z Friday with a period of heavy rain/(mountain) snow likely ahead of main frontal boundary. 24-hr QPF ending 00z Saturday among main global guidance (GFS, EMCWF, CMC) show between 0.40-0.80" of precipitation falling. The trend on that secondary low development will probably be the thing to watch. If the QPF numbers mentioned above were to come in as mostly snow at elevation, that would hold some potential for some decent turns. It really comes down to how much liquid equivalent falls as snow though – with the base having gone through a thorough thaw/freeze at all elevations at this point, it either has to be warm enough to soften, or there has to be enough liquid equivalent for a semi-decent resurfacing. Everything in between isn’t really worth it aside from race training or going out to ski some firm groomers.

I can’t quite say how snowpack in the local hills compares to normal, but down in the valley bottom in our area, snowpack is definitely below average right now. At our stake the depth is 8 inches, which is roughly half the average for this date. Of course snowpack in the valleys can be highly variable this time of year, but in contrast to the snowfall that’s been fairly close to average at our site, snowpack has been more notably below average this season. Snow-depth days for the season thus far are 76.5% of average. In the highest elevations, snowpack seems to be closer to normal despite what appears to be below average snowfall. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still an inch above average even after all the recent consolidation:

Thanks for the update PF. In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason. At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average. At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average. For season snowfall numbers thus far for the resorts on the spine of the Northern Greens I’m seeing: Jay Peak: 264” Smuggler’s Notch: 224” Stowe: 214” Bolton Valley: 192” I don’t have daily snowfall numbers for the resorts, but those numbers clearly seem to be behind the pace of the valley numbers, most notably as one heads farther south. The usual proportion of simply doubling my snowfall numbers would suggest the local mountains should be around 240-250” right now, but Stowe and Bolton Valley are definitely behind that pace. Aside from Jay Peak, it would take a really strong rest of March and April to get to that typical 300”+ range, so they’ve got to be behind that valley snowfall pace. Typically, if temperatures are on the warm side, one would expect the mountains to make out better than the valleys relative to average, but I’m not quite sure what sort of setup favors the reverse. Perhaps it’s a lack of big storms with substantial backside snows, or maybe a bit of a decrease in the number of bread and butter events? Do you have any thoughts on the disparity based on your observations from the mountain?