J.Spin

Here’s the elevation profile for accumulations I saw for this most recent storm in the Bolton Valley area this morning: 340’: 0.5” 1,000’: 1” 1,500’: 2” 2,000’: 3-4” 2,500’: 7-8” 2,800’: 8-9” 3,100’: 9-10” As you can see, the largest increases in depths seemed to come from a bit below 2,000’ up to about the 2,500’ range before tapering down. The storm was probably mostly snow above 2,500’, and with 1.21” of L.E. down here at the house, it was a decent resurfacing above 2,000’, and a very solid, “no worries” type of resurfacing above 2,500’. Essentially all the snow above 1,500’ was winter-dry, and temperatures were still in the 20s F this morning from probably 1,500’ on up. I’ll have to look back at all the April and May storms we’ve had, but this was some of the driest/wintriest snow I can recall in the past few storms.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.10” L.E. This has been an impressively moist system for the relatively short time it’s been affecting the area – I was out for an MTB ride midafternoon and it was just starting to rain, and now we’ve already had 1.10” of liquid equivalent. At elevations where it’s been all, or mostly snow, it’s going to be quite a substantial resurfacing of the slopes. We’re supposed to drop to around the freezing mark down here in the valley, and lows are projected in the 20s F at elevation, so we’ll have to see how much the snow dries out and how much more falls with respect to the potential for quality turns. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.37 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.4 Snow Density: 41.1% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

That’s good to know about the app. And yeah, this system has definitely had the right conditions around here for large flakes – we’ve had flakes up to 3” across at times this evening.

I saw your post about the Sugarbush mountain cams being down, and I didn’t see them either when I checked earlier today, but maybe the BTV NWS has access to them: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 536 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Snow has been occurring with sfc temps in the 35 to 38 degree range. Web cam atop Sugarbush shows snowfall approaching 6 inches at 3900 feet, also noted Buels Gore at 2300 feet has several inches, so a few slick spots above 1800 feet is possible this evening acrs central/northern VT, into the NEK. We’ve had about 0.5-1.0” of accumulation here at the house at 500’ so far on just about all surfaces, so the snow level has actually dropped pretty low.

The rain just changed over to snow down here at the house, so snow levels are certainly dropping.

I haven’t really seen any talk about the snow with this next system, but with the way it’s pouring with temperatures dropping into the 30s F way down at this low in the valleys, I wasn’t surprised to see that it’s pounding snow at elevation. Both the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Cam and MRG Bird Cage Cam are showing impressive snowfall rates, and the local radar is certainly lit up:

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.37” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 38.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.33” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.1 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.8 Snow Density: 26.7% H2O Temperature: 33.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

The forecast here does have a chance for snow tonight, but it started changing over and accumulating a bit before 11:00 P.M. It seems like the type of precipitation where the intensity matters a lot though, so it might not stay snow when the intensity drops until the temperature falls overnight.

April Totals Accumulating Storms: 3 Snowfall: 4.1” Liquid Equivalent: 4.46” In terms of storms, snowfall, and liquid, this April was slightly on the lean side of average, but it’s certainly not atypical. Of the 14 seasons in my data, it actually came in below the mean of 6-7” snowfall and well down into the bottom of the pack (4th from the bottom), but there are a number of seasons sitting just a few tenths of an inch above it, so it’s certainly clustered in with those 4-5” Aprils. Total liquid was a few tenths below the mean, and the number of accumulating snowstorms was right in the 3 to 4 range that we average each April.

I would have liked to see where accumulations stood as of this morning, but I had an appointment for car maintenance, so I couldn’t stop by the Village until about midday. I suspect snow levels dropped last night based on the fact that it was down into the 30s F at our place in the valley, but by the time I got up to Bolton today I’d say accumulations were generally back to what I reported yesterday. Also, with temperatures rising well above freezing, the snow was notably wetter than what was out there yesterday. The mountains were very scenic as the sun was coming out, so I grabbed a couple of images on the way back from BTV:

May isn’t typically a very warm month around here though, and the flora kind of support that in the way that the leaves aren’t fully out until we get to about June. We’re lucky in NNE in that we’ve got the latitude and elevations to pretty much keep the snow around until it actually gets warm. Aside from mud season, which depends on one’s immediate location, we get to skip over those March and April type periods in SNE that so many people seem to hate. I guess May here could be somewhat like April in SNE though.

From down here in this part of the Winooski Valley, you wouldn’t know that there was a solid amount of snow falling with this storm if it weren’t for some of the resources like Bolton’s webcams. I don’t think I’ve seen a flake down here at 500’, and even our local hills surrounding the valley that top out around 2,000’, don’t have signs of white on them. Seeing what was on the webcams though, I did take a trip up the access road to get a sense for what was going on with the accumulations. I knew the snow line had to be way up there, but I just kept climbing and climbing, and there were no signs of new snow anywhere. The first signs of old snow from the remaining winter snowpack were around 1,400’, but even at the Timberline Base at 1,500’, the precipitation was all rain. The rain didn’t even change over to snow until about 1,900’, just before I reached the Bolton Valley Village. That’s also right about where I saw the first accumulations of new snow taking hold. The snow accumulations picked up quickly with 1-2” at the main parking lots at 2,000’ and 2-3” at 2,100’ near the base of the main lifts. Here’s the full accumulations profile for this storm as of ~5:00 P.M. based on what I saw up to the Village and reports from reliable resources. It gives a pretty good sense for the elevation ranges with the largest jumps in accumulation, but on average it looks like once accumulations took hold, they increased by more than an inch per 100’ of elevation gain: 340’: 0” 500’: 0” 1,000’: 0” 1,500’: 0” 1,900’: 0-1“ 2,000’: 1-2” 2,100’: 2-3” 2,300’: 4-5” 2,500’: 8-9” 2,750’: 11-13” 3,000’: 13-14” 3,100’: 14-15” It was still dumping at the base when I left: …and the radar has shown continued precipitation tonight, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see those numbers increase a bit more by tomorrow.

It looks like I’ll be a bit too busy most of the day today to head up, but perhaps I’ll get a chance to check things out after in the late afternoon after my last meeting. From the BV web cams, I can see what looks like an inch or two at 2,100’, and maybe a couple more at 3,150’? PF did alert me to the fact that the resort reportedly closed to ski touring earlier this month, so once we learned about that we’ve been trying to honor it for the past couple of weeks during the height of the pandemic around here, even if Bolton isn’t strictly enforcing it as far as we know. We appear to be past our peak of infections around here, and indeed the governor is beginning to relax outdoor restrictions for businesses as of today: Expanding on Addendum 10, outdoor businesses, construction operations and recreation maintenance work may operate with a maximum of five total workers per location. (Effective April 27). https://governor.vermont.gov/press-release/new-order-governor-phil-scott-continues-phased-re-opening-expands-health-safety If restrictions are at that level for groups of five nonessential workers outdoors, one would think that ski touring should be acceptable for locals (not that it ever needed to be stopped in and of itself as recreation aside from issues of overcrowding at base areas). My wife and I were talking about the ski areas closing access the other day, and she was wondering when they would allow access again. I told her that realistically, they’re never likely to make an announcement on that. Out of season touring is really more of something that’s at your own risk and an activity the resorts that allow it sort of “tolerate” vs. “support” from what I’ve seen. I did just see a guy skinning right past the base area camera though as he headed out on a tour, and the governor’s announcement is clearly a sign that the state is beginning to relax outdoor restrictions. The general tenor there is that we can probably start picking up some of those outdoor activities that we’d been refraining from, especially for locals in the 10-mile distance window PF mentioned.

I haven’t seen much discussion in here yet, but I got a text message yesterday afternoon that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with this next storm. The focus for the advisory appears to be for elevations above 1,000’ since they’re not expecting too much down here in the valley bottoms. The current BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps are below:

The data concur – 6:00 A.M. observations were 5% H2O and 12:00 P.M. observations were around 3% H2O.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.37” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, we had some steady snow with big flakes for a while there PF, and when I checked on the snowfall up above 3,000 on the Bolton Vista Peak Webcam, it was really impressive – visibility was down to one tower at times.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.35” L.E. We picked up a round of accumulation midday yesterday as the heaviest precipitation came through with the primary front, and then we had additional rounds yesterday evening and overnight as the secondary front has been pushing through the area. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 28.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

The radar image really tells the story of today's weather, with the popcorn/cellular/convective nature of the precipitation. We’ll have a period of sun, the clouds blast in and we’ll get some snow accumulation, then the snow will melt back and the process will repeat again and again. You can even see some of the cells develop out of nowhere just to the west of the spine before they hit us:

Thanks for the updates PF, I can see where the confusion came from. It looks like this is a development that has arisen in the past week? I’m guessing last weekend (April 4th) was about the time this went into effect? We’d actually heard about Stowe and Smugg’s closing all access at some point because of too many people congregating and potentially ruining social distancing measures, but I had no idea it was so extreme. My wife and I were talking about the several hundred cars you mentioned, and if you start thinking about the average number of people per vehicle and doing the math, the numbers get large quite quickly. Knowing the typical scene in the Stowe parking lot on big spring weekends, I can absolutely understand the concern. As you can imagine, we haven’t seen anything like that up at Bolton. I checked back in my reports from roughly the past month, and I did note a couple dozen cars when we were out during Winter Storm Quincy back on the 24th. That’s not really atypical (and some of the cars in the upper lot are from people who live in the village), so I didn’t give it much thought. I don’t really follow social media like Facebook or Twitter, but taking a look now, there’s nothing new on the Bolton Valley Twitter since March 27th, and I don’t see anything on their Facebook page (not that one can find anything on Facebook anyway since every page I look at there seems to be such an organizational disaster). It’s interesting, because aside from you bringing this up, I’m not sure where I would have learned about this update to the actual policy. On the Bolton Valley website, there’s the initial announcement of the suspension of winter operations on March 15th, and then if you click down all the way into the detailed snow report you get the information: “Bolton Valley is closed for the winter season. This includes resort wide operations, services and our designated uphill routes and backcountry terrain - it is all closed at this time due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”, which is from March 25th. Indeed, they indicate that the resort is closed, but to us it read just like the typical statement letting you know that all the resort facilities are officially closed, so there’s no ski patrol, services, use at your own risk etc. It’s too bad, because ski touring is obviously a great way to get needed exercise and stay well away from others in the interest of social distancing, but if indeed people congregating is the issue that they’re seeing, then we should honor that goal. We’re obviously well within any 10-mile limit for recreation (we’re just a few miles as the crow flies or by road). It’s just a bit weird that it’s OK to say, ride my bike, from my house, up to the resort, on the road, but to then hop on my skis and spread out further onto thousands of acres of their backcountry terrain is discouraged.

I hadn’t actually heard anything about it, and from everything I’ve seen on my outings, the locals are doing their thing, social distancing isn’t an issue at all, and there aren’t any signs indicating “no trespassing”, “do not enter due COVID-19 pandemic”, etc. The resort seemed to be in its usual “closed” status, which always seemed to be “use at your own risk” vs. “no trespassing”. Nobody I’ve seen out there seemed to perceive it any differently. I’ve been to the resort homepage and hadn’t seen anything, and even if you click on the conditions report, there’s no indication of a special closure. However, digging a little deeper, I see that if I click on the detailed snow report link, they do have this: “Bolton Valley is closed for the winter season. This includes resort wide operations, services and our designated uphill routes and backcountry terrain - it is all closed at this time due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We can't wait to see you all around the mountain again soon, but for now, are following the guidance of state and local health officials who do recommend you continue to get outside and exercise, but do so as close to your homes as possible. Thank you for your understanding and support.” I hadn’t clicked on the detailed report before because there typically aren’t updates to that once the resort is closed. Now that I see it, that’s sort of tough one for the folks in all the houses right on the trails and in the Village though, where the ski trails are literally their back yard. What are they supposed to do, only leave the front side of their property and walk on the street? (where they are far more likely to be close to someone vs. the thousands of acres of undeveloped terrain out their back door) State officials have indeed left exercise as one of the viable reasons for leaving the house, since they realize that it’s important to everyone’s health and wellbeing, and it can easily be done while keeping social distancing protocols intact. Hiking, ski touring, and similar activities seem like some of the best options out there with respect to keeping distance (how many exercise activities are there where you can go for hours and not see a single other person?) I can see that it’s a balancing act of course, because you don’t want hundreds of people congregating at a resort and essentially ruining the social distancing that they’re supposed to be practicing. If I go to Stowe’s site, they indeed have closure information on the homepage, one link to the fact that the resort is closed altogether, which links to a general Vail Resorts page. Then, down below, they’ve got the note about uphill access being closed: “Uphill access is currently CLOSED on all portions of Stowe Mountain Resort until further notice. Without ski patrol & terrain maintenance, it is unsafe for skiers & riders, those sledding, and first responders. Thanks for respecting all posted closures. These closures mitigate the risk to our first responders and protect our local resources. Your safety and the safety of our community is our top priority.” Isn’t uphill access at the resort essentially always closed now out of season? I thought that was the policy since Vail took over. Do they have a special statement in regard to the COVID-19 outbreak that indicates things are different that the standard closure?

Yeah, it definitely snowed more overnight on the mountain. We went for a tour this morning, and with whatever settling occurred since my measurements from yesterday, we general found 3-4” additional snow at elevations above 1,500’. The snow line had dropped to around 600’ on the access road, and accumulations at 2,000’ were around 8”. We topped out at roughly 2,800’ on today’s tour, but accumulations are a foot plus from there on up. I’ve updated the elevation profile from yesterday’s tour with today’s total accumulation numbers, which are in bold below: 340’: 0” --> 0” 600’: -----> T 900’: T --> ½” 1,000’: ½-1” --> ½-1” 1,500’: 2” --> 5” 2,000’: 4-5” --> 8” 2,500’: 7” --> 9-10” 2,800’: 12” 3,000’: 8-9” --> 12”+ There was more snow falling while we were up there as well:

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/1.54” L.E. We picked up some additional snow this morning after 6:00 A.M.; the flakes were quite fluffy with just a trace of additional liquid. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 38.5 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace