J.Spin

I do recall seeing that map, and it’s quite a gradient of snowfall from north to south, but I don’t recall that it impressed upon me that areas in the Northeast actually had what one would describe as a “horrible winter”. I see places in northern CT with 60-70” of snow, which seems pretty decent for down there as far as I know. Even down in southern CT, much of the shading is the orange 20-30” range, which isn’t really off from average by more than a foot for those coastal spots is it? I do see now that places like NYC and Long Island are in that brown <20” shading, but aren’t the snowfall averages in the mid-20” range down there anyway? I might not have really focused much on the areas in brown though, since they are on the edge of the map and outside New England, and at quick glance I might have thought those areas were brown because the data simply weren’t plotted. Didn’t that winter have substantially more snowfall than this past one down in those areas though? For you and me, our observation sites aren’t even on the map, but there’s that same issue I mentioned in our discussion about that Northeast regional snowfall map in the NNE thread – you’ve got a fantastic level of gradation up to 100”, with literally shading for every 10” above 20”, but then all the gradations stop and it’s one solid color above 100”. We had over 200” at our site that winter, and even though that’s a bit north of what’s shown, there must still be a lot of gradient in that fuchsia area that would be really interesting to see. With that information you’d get an even better sense for the regional snowfall gradient. If one kept going with the 10” gradations, you’d probably have almost an additional 10 levels up there and that would make for a great visual. You can’t fault Will for not adding that, since he may not have the data to really do it up to his standards, and it’s not an area of focus for the map, but it would definitely be informative. I was going to say that maybe the snowfall nuances up there were out of his region of expertise, but after that recent discussion about microclimates in NNH, it clear that his annual snowfall microclimate knowledge extends well into NNE.

It was actually funny to hear some of the less than stellar comments even mentioned in the presence of 2007-2008 – I didn’t know it was possible to put those two things together. Around here it’s typically just spoken of with reverence, or you get comments like you guys have given. In the past 20 seasons I think most folks would place it only behind 2000-2001. Will’s strong December theme would certainly fit around here though – nearly 70” that December to help push the season to 200”+ for a very solid winter.

I agree, it definitely seems like a quality map – based on comments I’ve seen here it appears that it’s generally matching people’s snowfall quite well. And naturally, my perspective stems from being someone in the solid yellow area where the needle is pegged and you don’t get that additional level of detail. I think it would have been cool if they could even have just added a couple more gradations (maybe even if they covered up to 300” or 350” in 50” gradations. You’d obviously be able to get a little more sense for how things played out along the spine, up there in NNH, and that huge expanse of solid yellow up in northern Maine. In this case they’ve got the lake-effect belts in WNY/NNY on the map as well, so you’d get some detail there. It’s a great map in any case – it’s never going to be easy to effectively cover a region where the snowfall goes from roughly 0” up to 300” in one fell swoop and provide sufficient detail for everyone.

Those broader regional snowfall maps are great, but a downside of where you live now is that you’re typically going to be off scale and get stuffed into the highest gradation. The scale on that map is even nonlinear, but it still stops at 120”, which is probably well below the amount of snow that fell at your site. You can see how NNH is just one solid color, so it’s hard to get a sense for any distribution in those high snowfall areas. Unless you happen to have a numeric entry right near you, maps like that aren’t as helpful as they could be.

I was a bit too busy this week to check in on this thread, but boy that NNE microclimate discussion really exploded. I can certainly imagine Phin’s plow guy being there every day at times during the season, but he must do some sort of friendly service thing where he doesn’t charge $80 for every little visit to sweep away the upslope. I checked my snow data in line with the 2-inch number that Will tossed out there, and here at our site we average 24 days a season with 2 inches of snowfall or more, so that would run about $2,000 if he was strict on that sort of rule. I would check with your neighbors though to see what sort of plans they’re going with, just to make sure that it’s not standard around there to choose some flat rate for the season. I agree that it’s probably good to get a feel for it the first season, then eventually get a system where you can take care of snow maintenance on your own if you want to. Like PF said, we typically just drive over stuff below a certain liquid equivalent and pack it down. We actually have a decent pitch to our driveway, and I find the packed snow is totally fine if the weather stays consistently cold. It’s when there’s a notable thaw or mixed precipitation that it could start to get hairy and you have to pull out the crampons/microspikes/YakTraX/etc. When you do have a pack already down, it gives you some flexibility to let rain or freezing rain or sleet fall on it, then easily clear it away with the snow and preserve the texture of what’s underneath. If your climate is like what PF and I have over here, and what Alex probably sees as well, you can be looking at 100+ days of flakes in the air. It’s where the “snow globe” terminology comes from. Over here when tourists are confused because the forecast says “snow showers” and they end up with inches on their cars each morning, locals have given up trying to explain the nuances of upslope and microclimates and they just hand them one of these: Ultimately though, it is really nice to have some flexibility with the driveway clearing in this kind of winter climate. I’m lucky in that our driveway is only ~100’ long, so I can take care of it with the snow blower at my leisure. If it’s a powder morning and we want to zip off to the slopes for fresh tracks, I can just blow out a car’s width in a few minutes and we’re on our way. I think most plow guys get at it pretty quickly/early, but depending on how many customers they have and where you sit on their route, I guess it’s possible it could be slower after a big storm. It should be a fun experience though learning what works for your property and climate; at least you’ve gone into it partly for that snow experience so it should be a good time vs. someone who moved to a spot like that and had no clue about the climate. I’m sure you’ve seen the various versions of this classic tale: https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/2606/The-Diary-Of-A-Snow-Shoveler

Ha, nice perspective. The radiational cooling can probably help with snowpack retention a bit, but it seems to be CAD that is more important in that regard. In any case, precipitation is what you want to maximize when it comes to snowfall. It looks like the Randolph NH-CS-10 CoCoRaHS site near you has averaged 55.70” of total annual liquid over the past decade, suggesting their average is pretty similar to what we get here at our site, or even a bit more with the extra elevation. One figures your site will be right in that range as well, so you’ll have plenty of precip to work with. I’m not sure what Alex’s site gets for annual precipitation, but it’s probably similar? I think there’s a direction in which that site gets some downsloping? But, if that’s the case, it may be compensated by the gains from upslope.

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average. For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”. January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch. The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow. You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL. I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA). Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

Ahh, got it. We’re the same as your wife though; 60 F is a good break point for us on the inside temperature, and if the house can’t maintain that ambiently then it’s time to get the heat going. I’m fine with 50s F if I’m sleeping, or working out, or not at home, but trying to sit and work at a desk for hours (or do most things in the house) in those temperatures really isn’t practical Our setback for nights is 55 F, but it never gets down to that upstairs before the heat will have kicked on via the downstairs thermostat. It’s fun to play a bit with initially turning on the heat in the fall, but we really don’t wait long – it’s not worth sitting in 50 F temperatures for an extra week in October to save what would probably amount to 10 or 20 bucks.

I’ve actually been meaning to ask PF about that when I see some of the comments about the heat coming on. I always thought it was most practical to turn it off for the summer, then you don’t have to worry about it turning on inadvertently during cool nights or these shoulder seasons when temperatures are marginal and it’s not really needed. It just seems like unnecessary wear and tear and energy use for a couple of degrees here and there, but maybe some setups have to be kept on? I know some systems are full climate control for heating/cooling, but even for a system like that I’d still have it off and regulate by windows whenever possible (which up here is essentially everything except cold season).

I saw Phin’s post about the northern stream and clipper parade in the other thread, and I brought in a related post I’d made in another thread as well. Although a clipper parade alone is not going to build a classic deep NNE snowpack, that sort of pattern can be really nice up here to keep things rolling. It’s great for keeping the slopes fresh, and, those systems can be a huge help in getting the ski surfaces back to normal if they harden up because of a warm storm that cuts to the west of us. Sometimes you just get those storms that pass west of us and bring mostly rain or mixed precipitation, and although we’ll almost always get at least a little snow on the back side, those clippers can mean the difference between the surface being something much better than just “dust on crust”. The parade is certainly something to root for in this area though – they joke in the forum about how all that has to happen is for a moose to fart around here and it will snow, and that’s because the mountains will typically make the most of any little impulse that comes through. Ideally it’s nice to have some larger synoptic systems sprinkled into the pattern, but from what I’ve seen, the northern stream can be quite productive up here.

Actually if you’re interested in NNE microclimates, especially pertaining to winter, I can’t think of a thread on any forum that would be better than this one. It’s great to have another NNE member; we’ve definitely got some of the most interesting winter microclimates around, and there are only so many of us documenting them, so the more observations and discussion related to them, the better.

You should easily get to see snow in October at your location. Last season was the first in my 14 years of records here that we didn’t get at least a trace of snow/frozen, and it just missed by a few days because we got it on Nov 3rd. So that October occurrence is ~93%. Accumulating snow occurrence here in October currently stands at ~64%, but with an extra 1,000’ of elevation, your site should probably be even higher than that.

If it’s like here, it would be the past four years with a white Thanksgiving. In 2015-2016 I see there was some snow on the ground the day before, but nothing on Thanksgiving day itself, so it looks like it just missed. Of these past four, I see that 2017-2018 was the closest to missing – we picked up 6.1” on Nov 20th that year from a Lake Superior/Lake Huron coupled lake-effect band assisted by a weak embedded shortwave along the international border. Some of that snow was still around on Thanksgiving on the 23rd, and it actually persisted all the way out to the 25th before it was reinforced by additional storms at the end of the month. Anyway, this recent four-year stretch of white Thanksgivings is the longest I see in my records, so it’s been a good run on that front.

People are constantly bemoaning the winters of the 1980s in this forum, so I finally decided to take a look into what went on around here in NVT. It really seems as though there’s some sort of local bias coming into play with regard to that decade. I don’t remember the winters being especially “unwintry”, and that was in the Champlain Valley, where snowfall and snowpack are far less consistent than out in the local mountains. Some of my most vivid memories from that era are of hating with a passion the brutal cold and wind that would plague us as we’d make our way the roughly ¼ mile to the bus stop each day. There was no shelter where we had to stand, and we’d do our best to sort of huddle behind the sign marking the entrance to our neighborhood to attempt to get at least a slight respite from the brutal weather. That’s easily chalked up to recall bias based on how painful those days were, and even above average is still quite cold in winter here, but that, not a lack of winter, is what immediately comes to the fore when I think of the winter weather in the 80s. Average annual snowfall at BTV for the 1980s is 71.62” vs. the long-term average of 72.8”, so it would be surprising if there was any statistically significant difference between them. And for the 1982-1987 stretch you mentioned above, the average annual snowfall is 77.7”, so that really doesn’t speak to overtly painful winters for a winter weather enthusiast unless there was some sort of outrageous variability that’s not apparent in the data without some further digging. Based on the other NNE-related numbers and comments that I’m seeing in the thread, it’s starting to look like the issues for winter weather enthusiasts in the 1980s might have been more localized?

I agree, the foliage up here declines quite quickly once you hit peak, and if you get an autumnal storm system around that time, it can really expedite the leaf drop. It was on this forum where I heard that apparently they get much more protracted foliage seasons in general as you head farther south toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. And it’s great that PF pointed out the personal preference on peak foliage – my preference for peak is when there are still some green deciduous around (and indeed the evergreens are always there as Tamarack noted). I typically find that once you’ve got what might be maximal fall leaf color in this area, you’ve already got too many bare branches for my taste. The quick leaf drop we see here in NNE is one reason it’s nice to have the snow come in quickly. A bit of stick season is certainly appreciated because it’s got its own sort of unique somber, late-autumn mood, but it’s not too long before most folks would like to see the ground white. I can remember when I lived down in the Buzzards Bay area of Massachusetts, I didn’t anticipate white Thanksgivings, and it was always fun to head out on fall walks in the woods with the grandparents and expect dry ground, crunchy leaves underfoot, and reasonable fall temperatures. I’m not sure if we ever had a white Thanksgiving, and I certainly didn’t expect it. Up here in the mountains though, I’ve definitely learned that white Thanksgivings aren’t uncommon at all. I just checked my data, and occurrence of snow on the ground here at our site is almost 2/3 of the time (64.3%) in my 14-year period of record. And, that’s for down here in the valley bottom at ~500’, so the occurrence is only going to be greater in the higher elevations. I have to think at Phin’s elevation, the occurrence of white Thanksgiving would have to be at least that much as long as he gets in on the typical upslope snows. It’s hard to complain about the amazing weather we’ve got right now, but change is certainly on its way…

The pandemic-related ski discussion has been informative, and indeed it’s going to be a potentially interesting season up here this year. It’s just a small sample here in the forum, but the talk from skiers planning to focus close to home because they’re unsure of the what’s to come must be fairly prominent in the rest of the population. I’d put the “bread and butter” analogy a bit differently in that I’d say Alberta Clipper-style storms are actually the best fit for the bread and butter role up here. Each of those can have and upslope component, and some Great Lakes moisture infusion as well, so that make them more prodigious than they’d be in places without those enhancements. You’ve essentially got a consistent source of moisture enhancement, and a forcing mechanism locked in place up here in the northern mountains, so it just seems to make the systems more potent and reliable. And, you also get the ones that seem to ramp up a bit and drop a foot of fluff for the higher elevations. The reason those systems are such a good fit for the “bread and butter” analogy is that we’ll go through long periods of the winter where we’ll essentially get them every other day. If I look at the average number of accumulating storms we get here at our site, it’s probably 10 to 15 per winter month, and many of them are simply those bread and butter Clipper-type storms. A notable thing about these systems is that they’re almost always bringing snow, not rain or mixed precipitation, since they’re not wound up enough to really pull in much warm air. It’s that consistency that makes them our bread and butter for snowfall. A winter pattern I think is productive in this area is one like we saw in 2007-2008. With the combination of latitude and altitude up here, there’s a strong case to be made for simply “give us the moisture and the snow will come”. The 2007-2008 season felt like that – we were just right in the moisture train. Yeah, being right in the pipeline meant that we had some mixed precipitation on occasion, but it was typically buried under snow quite quickly as the back part or the storm hit us. It will be fun to hear thoughts from @powderfreak on this as well.

Yeah, the endless summer crew has been engaging in the usual…

They’d probably start the thread early regardless, but I find it helpful because the first touches of winter can start quite early in the mountains of NNE. Heck, as Phin alerted us, the Whites already had sub-freezing temperatures and rime back at the end of August more than a week ago. Yeah, the focus at this point is often on the overall pattern potential for the season, but they’ll touch on the early stuff as well, which can actually mean enough snow in the mountains to get out for turns.

Yeah, the signs are unquestionably there at this point. I was going to comment as well because when I was out on my ride yesterday morning there were tons of ferns that had changed to more autumn hues or gone totally brown, and some of the sumacs had sections that have turned red and are dropping leaves. Our old butternut out back starts losing some leaves in early August, but that pace has started to pick up again. And of course you can see those yellows popping up in the local hills around here as PF’s image shows – those weren’t there a couple of weeks ago.

Liquid Totals August: 4.63” (+0.63”) Jun-Jul-Aug: 14.76” (-1.04”) Calendar Year: 34.42” (-1.29”) Water Year: 49.52” (-0.17”) With August finishing up, I see folks are getting their liquid totals in, so I’ve got the data for our site listed above. This August was actually the second wettest in my records going back to 2010, so it certainly can’t be considered overly dry around here right now. All the totals above are running within ± roughly an inch from my averages, so they’re pretty typical.

Now that Phin has brought sub-freezing temperatures to his back yard in August, I’d say he’s on the right track with respect to figuring out the NNE lifestyle. But Scooter bringing SNE weather north just to retaliate against the ACATT people? – some things should really not be tolerated.

Yeah, I see that they’re currently reporting sub-freezing temperatures up on Mt. Washington with freezing fog, so all the higher summits were probably iced up. The latest reports show summit temperatures around 30 F. The record low for the date is 26 F in 1989, but it makes sense that they haven’t reached anything that low today with this big August heat.

People are probably just jumping the gun on your big heat, maybe it starts tomorrow? I recommend checking your local forecast to be sure.