J.Spin

We’re on the threshold of December now, so for your location in NH, you can toss the worry out the window and let folks farther south deal with it. Just sit back and enjoy the winter ride that the NNE mountains are going to give you. As I mentioned, from this point on you’re going to be in the game for snow/frozen from essentially any system that touches your area – it doesn’t matter if it goes to the north, south, east, or west of you, or right over your head; there’s almost always going to be some frozen from it unless the upslope is totally wonky/anemic in your area for some reason. Take this next system that everyone spends their time bemoaning; just about every model shows snow up here as it departs. And then the potential one after that, whatever the front end does, the models show it leaving snow in its wake. And if a storm doesn’t work out perfectly, it’s no big deal, there’s typically going to be another snow event right behind it within a few days. You are definitely not in a spot now where you’re going to have to obsess over the models about missing the one or two big shots you might get during the season for snow. You’re literally going to have dozens and dozens of snow chances on the season. With the insane snow numbers coming out of that local Randolph CoCoRaHS site, it’s just hard to imagine it going any other way unless the effects there are somehow very localized. Think about last season – that site recorded more snowfall than I have ever recorded at this site in 14+ years of detailed observations. And, according to the SNE discussions I’ve been seeing, last season was apparently horrible, with the dreaded “pig” pattern most of the season? Imagine what’s going to happen up there in an “average”, or “good” season. LOL!

Checking the base webcam at Bolton Valley at ~2,100’, it was definitely pounding all snow with those more intense echoes. This system (BTV NWS says a weak surface cold front with upper level trough) has always shown a mix of precipitation types on the models, so it looks like it’s playing out as expected. Our forecast down here in the valley is generally rain during the day, but snow works its way into the forecast as we head into the evening and the temperatures come down, so I guess we’ll see how far the snow levels drop as we progress through this storm.

Yeah, we’re getting frozen even down here at 500’, and I popped on to the thread because we just had our first transient accumulation from this event. Not surprisingly, we start to accumulate when the precipitation is most intense, like with that batch that’s pushing through now:

In terms of the bleak weather, this is still very much a typical November routine, even if it feels like things are heading backwards after having snow and colder temperatures. That’s how average Novembers go though, even up here in the northern mountains. There are going to be rounds of snow and then rain again unless you’re in one of those Novembers where things just happen to lock in with consistent below average temperatures. I’m not sure on the exact percentages, but I’d say the cold locking on from some point in the month onward is probably somewhere in the top third to half of Novembers around here. But PF can tell you, a few days of warm temperatures is not really going to take out whatever manmade snow Stowe put down. That stuff is glacier dense, and unless they made the absolute minimum required to squeak by with an opening, it’s not going anywhere. They’ll naturally turn the guns again as soon as temperatures come back down and bolster any spots that need it. For December, getting consistent cold to start at some point in the month is much more typical. December of course can see-saw like November, but it’s much less common and I’d say if you’ve got big temperature see-saw action in December, you’re talking about a month that is definitely in the bottom half of Decembers for ski weather quality. That doesn’t mean you can’t have the rogue storm with rain in a typical December, but constant back and forth with lots of freeze-thaw is definitely in the “below” average category for quality. I’m with Will on skiing early season, at least with respect to the option of riding ribbons of manmade snow. I’m always happy to head out for early days if Mother Nature has put down enough to make skiing away from the ribbons viable, but between the bad snow that’s gone through freeze-thaw cycles, the danger of too many people packed onto too little terrain, and the snow guns potentially even blasting while you’re out there, it’s just not typically a great experience. The warm days (preferably minus any rain) in these cycles are actually where I’d ski if I was going to. The snow softens up, and it can be quite nice, just like spring. This time of year, everyone is chomping at the bit to get going, and it’s often those fast, hard-charging folks that are out there early (especially at Stowe), so you’re not too likely to get much peace and solitude at the start of the day. If I was to go, I’d probably pop up for the last hour or two of the day when most folks are done – you can definitely get some space on the trails once people have packed it in for the day, and on spring snow days, end-of-the-day conditions aren’t really as much of a factor as they are on winter groomer or powder days.

Yeah, definitely another white Thanksgiving for the books. Looking at the numbers, this one sets the occurrence at 10 out of 15 seasons, so the current average is 2/3 of the time (66.7%). In terms of percentage, it’s not much of shift from where it was (64.3%), so somewhere in the 60-70% range is probably a decent estimate.

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.15” L.E. We picked up an additional 0.2” of snow with today’s activity. The models don’t really show any backside snow with this system, so what we’ve had thus far could be it for the snow with this event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 33.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches I haven’t cored the snowpack, but it’s probably only got about a third of an inch of liquid in it. Still, I don’t think it’s all just going to disappear overnight based our forecast of temperatures just a bit above freezing, so another white Thanksgiving seems likely.

Since this morning’s snow, it’s really been just cloudy here with the occasional flurry. About an hour ago though we began to get more consistent snowfall, and we’re getting consistent light snow now with big flakes. Presumably the atmosphere has been moistening up with this recent pulse that came into the area to get these flakes all the way down to the valley.

The low variance is why we LOL a bit when we see any sort of seasonal forecasts calling for 150% of average snowfall around here. Heck, even 125% of average snowfall can be hard to achieve. For the local mountain locations, 125% of average snowfall means you’re in the range of 400 inches of snow. That doesn’t happen very often, and indeed if one of the Northern Greens resorts get a 400” season, it’s a solid season. The flip side on that variance is the safety net aspect though; it’s also hard to get really poor snowfall seasons. For those weenie types that are into snow and snowstorms for the emotional roller coaster that comes with the highs and lows, boom and bust of a large variance snow climate, or just want a thrill from tracking storms in the models and don’t really care about the actual utility of the snow, this isn’t necessarily the best climate. If you just want a lot of snow and don’t really want to worry about it too much, this is great climate. As a scientist who’s interested in rigorously documenting the unique snow microclimate here, and as a skier looking for powder and overall quality natural snow conditions for skiing, I personally find this area great. If you’d rather have the occasional blockbuster/blizzard type setup that dumps a bunch of snow, then you can clean it up and be done with it and move on, this isn’t going to be the place. Yeah we get plenty of decent synoptic storms, but if 100 days of snow globe flakes a season, and lots of cloudier days on top of that, feels like more of a nuisance, this climate might feel frustrating.

That title would probably be heavily contended with Tamarack around? What’s the consensus on that?

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.15” L.E. Clearing the snowboards this morning was a welcomed change of pace, in that I could simply tilt them and the snow slid right off. It was clear that the temperatures with this event were cold right from the start of the snowfall. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.3 Snow Density: 8.8% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 3.4” Snow/1.05” L.E. We picked up a final 0.1” of snow after today’s noontime analyses, but it looks like the snow is done now, so the numbers above will be the totals for this system. The next potential chance for snow appears to be with the front end of the system working into the area tomorrow.

You’re right, as I noted in my response above, this is definitely on the early side for the snowpack to start in the typical elevations where people live. The average snowpack start date here at our site is December 2nd, and we’re probably on the early side relative to many valley locations due to early upslope snows helping to get at least some snow down. As noted, we are above 50% (64.3%) for snow on the ground at Thanksgiving, but not all of that Thanksgiving snow necessarily stuck around to start the winter snowpack. Here are the winter snowpack start dates and stats for my period of record at this site: 20-Dec-2006 20-Nov-2007 18-Nov-2008 06-Dec-2009 05-Dec-2010 23-Dec-2011 16-Dec-2012 22-Nov-2013 27-Nov-2014 27-Dec-2015 03-Dec-2016 10-Dec-2017 10-Nov-2018 08-Nov-2019 Mean: Dec 2 Median: Dec 4 S.D. 16 days

Poor Phin, still getting stuck with that stigma. With a very typical (and reasonably snowy) November thus far, and only about a week to go in the month, I’d say any concerns are unfounded. Average snow depth for this date at our site is 2.3”, with a median of 1.5”, so this morning’s 3.0” was certainly “typical”. But, we’re still a week ahead of the average start date for the permanent winter snowpack here. I think people are coming in a bit misled from the past couple of seasons with regard to when the building of the winter snowpack actually starts around here. Yes, we’re getting close to the average date, but starting now would still be in the top 1/3 of seasons. Places with an average snowpack start date this early are probably above 2,000’. For reference, the average snowpack start date on Mansfield at 3,700’ is November 16th. We’re certainly past that point, but 3,700’ is way up there in elevation.

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/1.05” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.1 F Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/1.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 30.1 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.99” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.0 Snow Density: 5.9% H2O Temperature: 32.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

We’re right around 2” for the event as of ~9:00 P.M., so it looks like snowfall is running in the 0.5”/hr range on average since it started. The snowfall is pretty robust right now though; with decent flake sizes and no wind, it’s stacking up fairly well. The updated BTV NWS AFD does indicate the quick appearance of the upslope snow showers: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 806 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 801 PM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have quickly materialized along the northern/central Green Mountains and across the Northeast Kingdom. The precipitation forecast has been updated to include mention of light snow across these areas, continuing until early Tuesday morning. Snowfall accumulations are expected of 1 inch or less during this time. Checking on our point forecast, there seem to be plenty of chances for snow going forward in the immediate future; snow is listed in the next six periods of the forecast right through Thanksgiving Day.

Yeah, it seems like there’s moisture there, you just never know quite how it will play out in any given spot with respect to Froude (i.e. will it start to get blown downwind etc.). Whatever happens at this point though, the back side of this system is delivering more here than the front side.

It’s hard to say at this point, but it looks like we’ve already got that inch that the BTV NWS AFD talked about. As PF noted, the echoes are exploding as moisture hits the spine:

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.89” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 33.1 F Sky: Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Well, in line with my comments above, snow recently started up here at the house, and it’s having no trouble accumulating now with the colder temperatures.

Beyond the immediate changeover as the system heads east, most (but certainly not all) models have a secondary round of backside snow that kicks off in the late afternoon today and continues overnight into tomorrow. I haven’t felt like it’s serious enough to look deeper into the models and see if there’s some sort trailing upper level feature or something, but the BTV NWS AFD doesn’t mention anything, so it’s likely not too well defined or substantial. They do note the potential for a bit of snow though: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1228 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1221 PM EST Monday...Behind this front, as cold air begins to filter in, scattered snow showers are likely for the higher terrain. Snow accumulations are expected to be light, an inch or less. We picked up 0.1” of snow on the front side of the system, and I didn’t see anything accumulate here on the immediate back side. We’ll see if anything develops and gets down to this elevation in that potential secondary round of snow.

I noticed that snow has started up here at our place – the point forecast here said between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM, so that’s pretty consistent with what was expected.

We’ve obviously still getting into the groove of the season and figuring out how things go at your site with various types of systems, but yeah, be patient. I’d also say be realistic… it’s November. And I certainly don’t mean this in a “it’s only November” type way, because we know how that goes - in some seasons, we’ll watch the weenies use that justification all the way through basically February before they give up the ghost. But as you noted, your area is probably on track for a reasonably average month in terms of snowfall, so it’s probably pretty typical. As for being done with 37 and rain by this point, um… I know it’s just for dramatic effect, but unless you’re going to move to 10,000’ in the Rockies, you’re never going to see the chances of that go away. Even in midwinter, and even up here in the mountains of NNE, that can happen. The magic up here in the Northern Greens (and of course Central Greens, Whites, Adirondacks, etc. to varying degrees) is not that every system is going to be 100% snow. The magic is that you can typically get some snow/frozen out of almost any system. We’re getting very close to that point now (probably end of November/beginning of December) when you’re probably going to be in the game for accumulation from just about any system. So just think about that, we average 50+ accumulating storms a season up here at our site, and you’re probably in a similar boat. Even in a system that passes perfectly to the west of us just enough to keep us in the warm sector, there’s almost always a bit of snow on the back side to cover things back up. Sometimes it’s enough to give the ski conditions a good shot in the arm, sometimes it’s just enough to fix the aesthetics, but it’s part of the winter climate. This next system is a nice example – there’s definitely a chance for some frozen on the front and back ends up here, whereas in most areas in the entire eastern U.S. this is just another November rainstorm. A quick look at the models suggests probably three major systems affecting the area for the rest of this month (barring substantial changes)? You’ve probably got a shot for at least some frozen in any of them, with that second one being the most questionable. From this point onward into the winter, at least you won’t have to go through too many more 100% plain rain storms at your NH site. They may not be “perfect” winter storms, but they’ll likely at least be interesting.

Right, I think I’ve seen those tables before, but hadn’t realized where they were coming from. Any of those sites that bring in CoCoRaHS data are great in my mind – they of course have more overall sites to be able to check on microclimates etc., but on a personal level, it provides analysis on my site here that I in some cases I would never be able to do myself. Being able to get all that modeling at the NOHRSC Interactive Snow Info page for what is literally my back yard, is pretty darned cool. I believe it was Ginx that turned me on to that site. Writing about it made me check on the site, and the current modeling actually shows the potential snow associated with that next system: