J.Spin

Poor Phin, still getting stuck with that stigma. With a very typical (and reasonably snowy) November thus far, and only about a week to go in the month, I’d say any concerns are unfounded. Average snow depth for this date at our site is 2.3”, with a median of 1.5”, so this morning’s 3.0” was certainly “typical”. But, we’re still a week ahead of the average start date for the permanent winter snowpack here. I think people are coming in a bit misled from the past couple of seasons with regard to when the building of the winter snowpack actually starts around here. Yes, we’re getting close to the average date, but starting now would still be in the top 1/3 of seasons. Places with an average snowpack start date this early are probably above 2,000’. For reference, the average snowpack start date on Mansfield at 3,700’ is November 16th. We’re certainly past that point, but 3,700’ is way up there in elevation.

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/1.05” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.1 F Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/1.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 30.1 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.99” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.0 Snow Density: 5.9% H2O Temperature: 32.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

We’re right around 2” for the event as of ~9:00 P.M., so it looks like snowfall is running in the 0.5”/hr range on average since it started. The snowfall is pretty robust right now though; with decent flake sizes and no wind, it’s stacking up fairly well. The updated BTV NWS AFD does indicate the quick appearance of the upslope snow showers: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 806 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 801 PM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have quickly materialized along the northern/central Green Mountains and across the Northeast Kingdom. The precipitation forecast has been updated to include mention of light snow across these areas, continuing until early Tuesday morning. Snowfall accumulations are expected of 1 inch or less during this time. Checking on our point forecast, there seem to be plenty of chances for snow going forward in the immediate future; snow is listed in the next six periods of the forecast right through Thanksgiving Day.

Yeah, it seems like there’s moisture there, you just never know quite how it will play out in any given spot with respect to Froude (i.e. will it start to get blown downwind etc.). Whatever happens at this point though, the back side of this system is delivering more here than the front side.

It’s hard to say at this point, but it looks like we’ve already got that inch that the BTV NWS AFD talked about. As PF noted, the echoes are exploding as moisture hits the spine:

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.89” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 33.1 F Sky: Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Well, in line with my comments above, snow recently started up here at the house, and it’s having no trouble accumulating now with the colder temperatures.

Beyond the immediate changeover as the system heads east, most (but certainly not all) models have a secondary round of backside snow that kicks off in the late afternoon today and continues overnight into tomorrow. I haven’t felt like it’s serious enough to look deeper into the models and see if there’s some sort trailing upper level feature or something, but the BTV NWS AFD doesn’t mention anything, so it’s likely not too well defined or substantial. They do note the potential for a bit of snow though: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1228 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1221 PM EST Monday...Behind this front, as cold air begins to filter in, scattered snow showers are likely for the higher terrain. Snow accumulations are expected to be light, an inch or less. We picked up 0.1” of snow on the front side of the system, and I didn’t see anything accumulate here on the immediate back side. We’ll see if anything develops and gets down to this elevation in that potential secondary round of snow.

I noticed that snow has started up here at our place – the point forecast here said between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM, so that’s pretty consistent with what was expected.

We’ve obviously still getting into the groove of the season and figuring out how things go at your site with various types of systems, but yeah, be patient. I’d also say be realistic… it’s November. And I certainly don’t mean this in a “it’s only November” type way, because we know how that goes - in some seasons, we’ll watch the weenies use that justification all the way through basically February before they give up the ghost. But as you noted, your area is probably on track for a reasonably average month in terms of snowfall, so it’s probably pretty typical. As for being done with 37 and rain by this point, um… I know it’s just for dramatic effect, but unless you’re going to move to 10,000’ in the Rockies, you’re never going to see the chances of that go away. Even in midwinter, and even up here in the mountains of NNE, that can happen. The magic up here in the Northern Greens (and of course Central Greens, Whites, Adirondacks, etc. to varying degrees) is not that every system is going to be 100% snow. The magic is that you can typically get some snow/frozen out of almost any system. We’re getting very close to that point now (probably end of November/beginning of December) when you’re probably going to be in the game for accumulation from just about any system. So just think about that, we average 50+ accumulating storms a season up here at our site, and you’re probably in a similar boat. Even in a system that passes perfectly to the west of us just enough to keep us in the warm sector, there’s almost always a bit of snow on the back side to cover things back up. Sometimes it’s enough to give the ski conditions a good shot in the arm, sometimes it’s just enough to fix the aesthetics, but it’s part of the winter climate. This next system is a nice example – there’s definitely a chance for some frozen on the front and back ends up here, whereas in most areas in the entire eastern U.S. this is just another November rainstorm. A quick look at the models suggests probably three major systems affecting the area for the rest of this month (barring substantial changes)? You’ve probably got a shot for at least some frozen in any of them, with that second one being the most questionable. From this point onward into the winter, at least you won’t have to go through too many more 100% plain rain storms at your NH site. They may not be “perfect” winter storms, but they’ll likely at least be interesting.

Right, I think I’ve seen those tables before, but hadn’t realized where they were coming from. Any of those sites that bring in CoCoRaHS data are great in my mind – they of course have more overall sites to be able to check on microclimates etc., but on a personal level, it provides analysis on my site here that I in some cases I would never be able to do myself. Being able to get all that modeling at the NOHRSC Interactive Snow Info page for what is literally my back yard, is pretty darned cool. I believe it was Ginx that turned me on to that site. Writing about it made me check on the site, and the current modeling actually shows the potential snow associated with that next system:

So this seems like a cool way to access CoCoRaHS (and I assume other sorts of) weather data. I can see the website, but why haven’t we been using this in here before? Has something changed with respect to accessibility or options?

With what we’ve seen thus far, you shouldn’t be worried at all… at least up here in the mountains of NNE. If anything, your arrival has been a shot in the arm for NNE snow. The area has had multiple October snow events, and now multiple November snow events. That’s not necessarily that unusual for this area, but October and November can easily be slow months. I’d argue most spots around here are at least on an average snowfall pace, and many are probably even ahead of average pace. I know we’re well ahead of average snowfall here at our site. Average snowfall to this point in the season is only about a half a foot at our location, since the first half, or even two-thirds of November can be pretty lean on snowfall; our average daily snowfall for the first two-thirds of the month is ~0.2”/day. It’s the last third of the month where the snowfall typically starts to ramp up, averaging close to 1”/day. I’m seeing total snowfall of 12.7” on the season at the Randolph CoCoRaHS site, and even up there, that’s probably ahead of average pace. And, as people have been posting, there are multiple potential shots of additional snow appearing on the models. Sure, the storms aren’t likely to be 100% snow, but at least there’s a decent chance for some snow associated with them, and that’s pretty classic November around here. If there’s a curse in place for SNE, it’s clearly a result of getting that October snowfall. They seriously should not have done that, but there’s really no going back now. It certainly wasn’t on the scale of the infamous Octo-bomb, so I guess there’s hope? What doesn’t make sense is how you could be related to any sort of curse for SNE; you don’t even live there. I guess you could be driving through there on your way back and forth to MD, but it’s pretty farfetched to think that you’re the cause of the curse just because you transiently pass through an area. I definitely wouldn’t worry about it, because it’s much more likely that the October snow is the root cause of the situation vs. any one person.

This looks like a good place for some data! Your estimate is probably pretty darned close – my 14 years of data from our site have white Thanksgiving occurrence at 64.3%, with the past four years all being white. Mean Thanksgiving snowpack depth is not all that substantial, just 3.2”, with 2.0” for the median value. I agree that this November has felt like a fairly normal progression for the month. Indeed, we had the warm spell, but we’re also ahead of average snowfall here to this point in November due to the storms at the beginning of the month. The mean snowpack depth value for Nov 18th here is 1.2”, so we’re really quite “normal” in that regard. However, the mean snowpack value for this date doesn’t mean too much because November is very early winter down here in the valley and is typically quite a roller coaster with respect to freezing temperatures. Thus the snow on the ground is usually coming and going at this point. As folks have mentioned, this is still on the early side for the winter snowpack to start down at this elevation; the average snowpack start date is around the end of November/beginning of December, so snowpack averages before that point are typically going to be the mean of lots of crazy ups and downs.

Event totals: 5.5” Snow/0.88” L.E. This is probably the last round of accumulation for this storm? The radar is pretty quiet, and the forecast doesn’t suggest any precipitation tonight, so unless something changes, the above totals should be the final numbers here. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 21.7 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

That’s great PF, nice to see the accumulations going on. If there was a base in place this event would probably make for some excellent turns. We’ll need to get some sort of synoptic system to put down that base snow though – this snow is awesome, but on its own it’s not quite going to get things going for the slopes. I’m getting ratios in the 30:1 to 50:1 range out of this, which is of course without compaction of the full accumulation, but even after some compaction this is still champagne. Actually, there might be some reasonable areas for turns up high, depending on how much of that denser snow from earlier in the storm is still present. I’m only seeing 4 inches at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as of yesterday though.

Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.88” L.E. Snowfall has continued all morning at varying intensities, with a good burst taking place at observations time that quickly put down another 0.3” just in the time I was out there taking measurements and getting cores. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 25.9 F Sky: Snow (3-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.86” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 43.3 Snow Density: 2.3% H2O Temperature: 21.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

What did Alex get out of today’s activity? It’s possible that this was just one of those events where the bulk of the moisture just didn’t make it all the way over to the Whites. As PF mentioned, the Greens are closer to the flow off the Great Lakes, so they cash in more easily on that moisture. It always seems surprising to me that the Adirondacks don’t do even better in that regard – in theory they should have first dibs on that Great Lakes moisture even before us, but they really don’t seem to capitalize on it. I’ve heard some theories in that it’s the shape of the range – the ‘dacks are sort of a centralized/circular jumble of mountains (supposedly they’re growing, being pushed up by some geological event underneath). Maybe the moisture just gets around the range too easily. In contrast, the Greens are lined up like a wall, a wall that’s 250 miles long. That’s a big barrier for moisture, with only a few spots to sneak through (like the pass here in the Winooski Valley). It’s also interesting to note that our direct flow off the lakes (well, specifically Lake Ontario, with maybe some assist from Lake Erie too) is from the southwest. They say that folks in the lake-effect belts all know the wind direction to watch for with respect to their town/location, and for our direct flow off Ontario, a 250-260° wind direction is what we watch for around here in the Northern Greens. But it’s interesting, sometimes we will have those direct flow events off Ontario where a spot like Mansfield will pick up a quick foot, but that’s certainly not our bread and butter. Our bread and butter flow for typical upslope snow is from the northwest. The moisture source is obvious when there’s a low pressure system sitting up in northern Maine wrapping the Atlantic into the spine, but when that’s not the case, it’s a bit more mysterious. The Great Lakes certainly aren’t directly to our northwest, but apparently some of their moisture gets pooled there. And another important point about that phenomenon is that indeed the Great Lakes aren’t to our northwest, but neither is anything else with respect to elevated terrain. It’s lots of flat plains, and the wall of the Greens is the first thing that moisture has to deal with as it heads this way, and they really succeed in wringing out what they can. We’ve had a number of years to get a feel for the microclimates around here in the Northern Greens, but that NNH area is definitely a bit more of a black box that needs consistent observations. We’re definitely getting a feel for Alex’s area now with his input, but your area really is something new.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.83” L.E. The air temperatures have definitely dropped well below freezing now, but it seems that along with some settling, the recent snow had melted somewhat from below due to the warm ground. There were some stars visible at the most recent observations time, but another burst of snow has come into the area. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, pretty much. We always thought the neighborhood entrance sign here was kind of cute, although we were initially sort of oblivious to its full meaning. We get it now of course.

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.82” L.E. My wife got in from Morrisville a little while ago and was able to report what she saw along her route. In general, accumulations were less than what she saw here, with just a dusting in many areas, and roads were just wet. Valley temperatures have been marginal enough that it probably takes some increased snowfall intensity to really get the accumulations going, but with the temperature dropping down near the freezing mark, it should be easier now for the snow to stick. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.1 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Yeah, you can see that trajectory on the radar – you guys were right in line to get it after it passed through here.