J.Spin

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.33” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7 Snow Density: 8.6% H2O Temperature: 34.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

Yeah, we’re getting some nice rounds of extra snow showers as well down here. You can see the streamers pushing through in line with what Phin had mentioned in one of his posts:

Regarding these past couple of storms, here’s the settled snow depth profile I observed during this morning’s ski tour at Bolton Valley: 340’: 4” 1,000’: 4-6” 1,500’: 6-8” 2,000’: 8-10” 2,500’: 10-12” 3,000’: 12”+

You’re definitely not the only one that likes the heated walkways – I love them. It’s hard to figure out people’s beef. It’s not as if they’re melting the useful snowpack - they’re removing the snow from where you’re going to remove it anyway. You don’t need salt, you’re not scraping down the masonry, and the end result is a clean look instead half scraped areas, and patches of snow and ice everywhere. The effect the heated walkways produce is actually quite aesthetic because you also get the clean edges between where the snow should be and where it shouldn’t, instead of piles of shoveled snow thrown everywhere. Shoveled piles can have a clean look sometimes as well, but there’s often some sort of dirt or salt in there, and it’s hard to beat the clean lines of the heated walkways where the surrounding snow is typically pristine/untouched.

Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.27” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.0 Snow Density: 7.7% H2O Temperature: 29.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.1 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 18.2 Snow Density: 5.5% H2O Temperature: 29.3 F Sky: Snow (2-8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

I’m starting to see a few flakes falling again, so this may be the approach of that next system.

Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.70” L.E. We picked up an additional 0.3” of accumulation today before the snowfall finally wound down. I was unsure if these two systems would blend together enough to be considered one event, but the substantial break we’ve had clearly indicates that the upcoming Clipper/upper-level shortwave is its own discrete storm. So, the totals above will represent the final numbers for today’s event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 28.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

The updated BTV NWS maps for this event are below. As was noted, there are now some WWA over in NNH. On the projected accumulations map, the numbers are up just a bit in the valleys, but some areas of 12-18” shading are appearing near the peaks.

We’re definitely in that interlude period with shortwave ridging as the BTV NWS forecast discussion notes: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 923 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow showers will briefly wane this afternoon as shortwave ridging aloft briefly traverses the North Country. However, a reinvigorated shot of snow showers is expected late tonight through Tuesday morning with the passage of a shortwave trough and its surface reflection. I’ve been watching to see if I’ll need to split this event apart into two storms, but thus far we’ve had the usual continuation of some flakes in the air with peeks of sun. We’ll see if we fully clear out, but we just had another small pulse of moisture push through:

Upslope snow is for skiing… and scenery. Actually, as long as there’s some base, it’s great for lots of stuff like sledding, snowshoeing, snow angels, snowmobiling, etc., etc. You can eventually use it for structural stuff, but you have to wait for it to warm up a bit.

Event totals: 6.8” Snow/0.69” L.E. Snowfall has been running generally in the ~1 in/hr. range through the morning here at our site, with 5.7” of new snow since the clearing of the boards at last observations time. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 5.7 inches New Liquid: 0.37 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.4 Snow Density: 6.5% H2O Temperature: 30.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Yeah, I’d say the snowfall rate is in the 1”/hr. range. I wasn’t up then, but my wife said snow started up around 5:10 A.M., and as of 9:00 A.M. we’d picked up 4 inches, so that’s right in line with that average rate. Total accumulation was between 5 and 6 inches last time I checked.

I’ve got the updated event maps from the BTV NWS below. They’ve definitely expanded the initial Winter Weather Advisories eastward and southward somewhat, and that lake effect snow warning has been added off to the west. The projected accumulations map is fairly similar to what was put out yesterday, with what seems like a bit of a bump in the accumulations for the lower elevations. Our point forecast here got a nudge upward for tonight with 3” to 5”, but it’s still in that general 5” to 10” range overall.

Yeah, here’s the composite radar – it has that classic look from the WNW with those pulses of 30+ db moisture, so that’s a good sign.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.32” L.E. The precipitation here at our site had been rain from the start of this storm yesterday afternoon, and it stayed that way into the evening with valley temperatures just dropping into the 30s F. Temperatures continued to fall overnight though, and snow was already flying at observations time this morning. The gauge caught 0.19” of liquid from the start of the storm, and there didn’t seem to be much transitional precipitation, because the base of the stack on the snowboards was relatively dry. The accumulation had some decent density to it, but it was certainly drier than our most recent accumulation last week. Temperatures have fallen below freezing now, so I suspect the next round of accumulation will be drier with daytime highs not expected to rise too far into the 30s F. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.14 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.9 Snow Density: 12.7% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

That worked great – I was able to click on it and view it easily. Nice to see!

Here’s the projected accumulations map the BTV NWS has up in association with the incoming weather. They’ve got us in the 6-8” shading down here, with 8-12” shading for the elevations. That seems pretty consistent with the point forecast here, although the WWA highlights accumulations above elevations of 1,000’.

Thanks for the updates – it looks like snow levels are still pretty high, with snow falling at the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Live Cam at ~3,150’, but no flakes visible on the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam at ~2,150’.

They've updated the alerts map, so here's the current WWA distribution:

I had just come in from yard cleanup because the rain was too heavy, and I got a WWA alert from the BTV NWS, so presumably they feel we’ll hit that criteria.

That seems quite reasonable. It still feels like 3-6” would be a decent range here at our site based on the recent model runs, although there are a couple models like the ICON and NAM 12 that would suggest something leaner. That 3-6” range would actually be right in between your home and office numbers, which wouldn’t be surprising at all for here. The Froude Numbers can make a difference of course, and temperatures may play some role down at our elevation. Our BTV NWS point forecast here sums near the 5-10” range, which seems a bit potent, but if we do get the 0.5”-1.0” of liquid shown in some of the models, that wouldn’t be outrageous at all if ratios are decent. It would also depend on how much of that liquid falls before changeover. We’ll see what they think in the next BTV NWS forecast discussion.

Yeah bwt, that’s an important point when it comes to skiing. A climate with just the occasional big synoptic storms with long interludes of rain, warmth, or simply lack of fresh snow is really not an optimal way to run a ski season. Sure, some places like the Sierra or the more feast/famine areas of the Rockies can pull it off reasonably well because of the dry climate and typical lack of rain, but trying that in most climates just means you’re going to end up skiing a lot of hard, icy, manmade snow. Consistent snowfall is a pretty big component in creating quality ski surfaces, and critical for providing significant powder skiing. As you can see from PF’s comment above to Phin, there’s a lot more consistency is some of these other types of events, and you don’t have to worry too much about somehow getting lucky to be under some key area of lift when the lift is literally locked in place near the mountains.

I was going to go check on the latest BTV NWS thoughts in the discussion, but the excerpt you posted summarizes things quickly. From looking at the models earlier today, my estimate for accumulations here at our site was something in the 3-6” range. Applying their dusting to an inch below 1,000’ estimate would seem a bit on the low side here with the temperatures in the forecast, and it’s definitely inconsistent with the roughly 4-8” in our point forecast. The Mansfield point forecast is in the 6-12” range, so that seems in line with their summary. In any case, there’s enough potential to suggest keeping the boards ready.

That’s a great shot as others have mentioned. I was in my office for a bit today and couldn’t resist getting at least a cell phone shot of Mansfield from my window covering the other side of the range – we’re definitely getting into the season now. Down at our elevation the snow was just a trace, but we’ve had multiple October snow events even reaching down here to the valley now, so that’s a good start.