J.Spin

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.15” L.E. As the forecast suggested, there was a bit of snow early this morning, and it stuck even down here at 500’. There was 0.6” on the boards at observations time, which did look like it could have melted some since whenever most of it fell. This is about a week on the late side for average occurrence of first frozen precipitation here, but just a day off for the average date of first accumulating snow, so very typical there. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7 Snow Density: 15.0% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Light Rain/Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Yeah, I’ve seen that, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion has touched on it as well. Along with the Monday morning stuff, there’s actually a bit of backside snow potential showing up in some of the models as well – that would be about 24 hour later in the Tuesday morning timeframe. Those are some of the potential rounds of precip. that I mentioned in my previous post – some models have a bit of something on Wednesday, and then there seems to be another possibility in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. The 540 dam line fluctuating back and forth around here to varying degrees on the models is certainly consistent with frozen not being too far away, and you know we’re really starting to get into that season when the potential shots of moisture start showing up in the models every 1 to 2 days.

Look, just do… your… job. Strike down as needed, with whatever level of vengeance and anger is required. We didn’t pay good money to watch weenies run roughshod over the sanctity of the discussion thread.

Well, it looks like the weather is going to be getting more active in the coming week – I’m seeing multiple rounds of precipitation possibilities, and most of them include some snow mentioned, even down here in the valley. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Friday...Basically, periods of showers (both rain and snow) look possible through next week as we see temperatures remain around 10 degrees below normal.

I actually hadn’t thought about it until you pointed it out, but that may be one of the cultural factors in why Vermont has had success in keeping viral spread somewhat low. Yes, we know that having low population density can help, but it’s clearly not the only factor in low positivity as Dr. Fauci pointed out when he had that virtual visit to one of Governor Scott’s press conferences. It’s been building for a while, but you’ll certainly see the pandemic ennui being discussed in the national news. People are sick of dealing with the pandemic and just want to live their lives again, so it can be hard to stick to the public health measures like masking and social distancing. If you live in a big city and your typical pastimes are going to parties, clubbing, dining out, shopping, attending large sporting events, theatre, or whatever, then the current levels of social distancing are probably quite a hassle. When your typical pastimes are hunting, fishing, biking, hiking, kayaking, skiing, etc., the distancing restrictions don’t really have a huge effect. Sure, I’d love for the pandemic to be over, but outside of modifying aspects of work, my everyday life has been pretty much the same. I can go on daily MTB rides, hike, kayak, ski, or whatever. The most notable issue with respect to outdoor activities around here was that brief period where resorts didn’t even want people ski touring, but I think we’ve advanced far enough in our knowledge of the virus and pandemic that they’re not going to go to that extreme again. We know a lot of people live here in Vermont for the outdoor lifestyle and activities, things that can easily accommodate social distancing. It just makes sense that the less your everyday life is impacted by the current regulations, the less of an issue there’s going to be with regard to pandemic fatigue, and the easier it is to stick to the public health guidelines.

We were up in the NEK on Saturday for a soccer game at North Country Union, so I can pass along a couple of pictures. When we headed past Mt. Mansfield in the morning, the clouds didn’t really let us see where the snow line was located, and we didn’t see any signs of snow in the valleys or even the intermediate peaks where we were. So indeed, even over as far north and east as Newport, any snow accumulations were nothing like what was present further east into NH. We did get to see Mansfield on the way home, so I grabbed a shot of the snow on The Chin: You can really see in that shot how much stick season is becoming the look even in parts of the valleys. There’s still some nice foliage out there though; when we were in Newport we stopped by Lake Memphremagog to check out the views, and there was still lots of foliage along the lake. As you can see in the image, even up on Mont Owl’s Head at around 2,500’ there weren’t any signs of snow though.

I’m glad backedge chimed in with that advice, because I was going to say the same thing. I feel for folks who have to pick some specific date at this point of the season, make their reservations, lock it in, and then ski that day no matter what. You shouldn’t have to do that if you’re literally living in ski country with a semi-flexible schedule. Some people treat it like a badge of honor to be out there when the surfaces are ice, the wind chills are many tens of degrees F below zero, it’s pouring rain, whatever. Let’s face it, those conditions suck (actually, days with rain can yield nice soft snow and be a lot of fun, but if it’s constantly pouring you’re still going to be getting soaked). In any event, just avoid those days with crappy conditions and ski on the good days. Up here in the northern mountains there are typically so many good to great days (thanks to upslope, etc.) that there’s going to be another good one around the corner. When it comes to ice, rain, or cold being the detrimental factor to the ski experience, cold is kind of the toughest one to factor in, because you can potentially have fantastic fresh snow conditions coupled with very cold, dangerous, uncomfortable temperatures, and the two factors are at odds. You just have to make a judgement call at that point, but err on the side of caution with the kids, especially if there’s not going to be a warm lodge to jump into at any time. Maybe you just take a run or two to get the best of the snow, then you pack it in due to the potential for frostbite, etc. My personal temperature break point for riding the lifts is around 10 F (that’s not including wind chill, which can make a big difference). Below that point I will typically just switch to skinning up because you can stay warm during the ascent while you’re exercising, and you’re never sitting up there on a lift, exposed and swinging in the wind in those temperatures. That’s really the worst part of the lift-served experience on those very cold days, having to sit still on a lift where you’re not really generating heat and at the mercy of the wind. Gondolas really remove most of that issue, but they’re not nearly as common as regular chairlifts.

I wonder about even that academic perspective though – I can’t imagine there’s much of any short or long term water deficit up here in the northern mountains at this point. The water year at our site ended within an inch or two of average, and we just passed 40” on calendar year water with this system, which is again probably within a couple inches of average. It looks like the Randolph site near you is 41”+ of liquid on the calendar year, so they’re probably roughly on track as well. Maybe there’s some sort of mid-term measurement that could be low, but it sure is getting stomped by these systems that are starting to come through now.

Yes, November 2018 was a strong one for snowfall, and as usual, it was the second half of the month with the bulk of the accumulation. We received only 4 to 5 inches in the first half of the month, but 30 inches in the second half. I’d already put together a list of November storms ≥4” at our site for a previous discussion, so I’ve added that list below. You can see how it’s been tough to even break 12” with a storm, and in terms of what’s typical, we really only average a bit more than one November storm a season that drops 4” or more. You can also see how heavily weighted the list is to the second half of the month. The strength of November 2018 is evident from the list though, with three storms from that month making the cut. 11/20/2008 14.2” 11/26/2018 13.3” 11/26/2014 11.6” 11/20/2016 11.6” 11/23/2011 11.0” 11/26/2013 8.2” 11/27/2007 7.5” 11/15/2018 7.2” 11/7/2019 7.1” 11/20/2017 6.1” 11/10/2019 5.1” 11/26/2017 4.7” 11/21/2007 4.5” 11/29/2012 4.4” 11/23/2013 4.1” 11/21/2018 4.0”

A few weeks from now is still just November, so I think the difference would only mean slightly lower snow levels. Obviously there can be special freak events that hit lower elevations with a couple feet like the October snow bomb, but apparently November is still not a month where big snows can really hit the valleys. I wouldn’t have thought that, but seeing the November snowfall discussions in the forum over the past several years has given me the impression that the atmosphere is still not where it needs to be for big snows to hit the lower elevations at that point. I can’t remember the exact details, but the tenor was such that it seemed like even a November storm of several inches was a pretty big deal for the valleys. In my own 14 seasons worth of records at this site, I’ve only recorded two November storms of greater than 12 inches, and nothing that’s even hit 18 inches. That’s obviously only one spot in a big region, but this site is pretty snowy for a valley location, and that’s a decent stretch of time. It would seem like November could easily just behave as sort of a “December junior”, with big storms, but fewer of them, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. In any event, the BTV NWS is starting to mention the snow possibilities in their discussion, so that’s a sign that the potential is there: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For those snow lovers out there, we`ve got some good news. If you want to venture to elevations above 3500 ft on Saturday there is a very good chance you`ll see at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow as models show 850 mb temperature more than cool enough to support snow at higher elevations. We won`t speculate on snow accumulations just yet but there could be some decent accumulations depending on the degree of cold air advection behind the cold front.

I totally agree, but my experience up here in the mountains of NNE has definitely taught me that attempting to rush into warm season pursuits ahead of schedule is often just a recipe for disappointment. We know when that warmth finally has a chance to stick…

Unless that observer was clearing and measuring too frequently or something (which I guess there was some concern about at that site based on certain observational comments), it’s appropriate to measure all those snowfalls. That’s an important part of documenting the climate for a location and it would be erroneous to not document them thoroughly. And don’t buy into May, and especially April being “garbage time”. Certainly some weenies, especially the farther south you go, will try to preach that stuff. You’ll frequently see it touted if someone’s got an agenda to push that a season “sucked”, so late season snowfalls get downplayed because continued snowfall goes against what they’re trying to sell. You’ll hear stuff like “it just melts the next day, so it doesn’t count”. Mother Nature doesn’t really care about that agenda. Believe me, April (and probably even some May) snowfalls are not just going to simply melt the next day at your site. Average winter snowpack melt out down here at 500’ at our site is mid-April, and for your site it should be even later than that. April and, even May snowfalls can make for some fantastic powder skiing on deep snowpack with nobody else around, so it’s far from garbage time in the mountains.

It definitely shouldn’t be categorized that poorly – it’s probably best categorized as “below average”. Season snowfall here was only 9.2% (-0.34 σ) below our mean snowfall, so one certainly can’t justify too low a rating based on that. Snowpack (via SDD) fared worse at -0.60 σ, but that’s still well inside 1 S.D. below the mean. Grading for an average winter here is a C, and the season was only pushed from a C- to a D+ because of the snowpack as I mentioned in my seasonal grading comments quoted below. That’s still way above the F level though, and I think one would have to be getting down in that range to be thinking “pretty shitty”. “I don’t typically expect any snow in June down at our elevation, so barring some strange occurrence, 142.1” of snow will be the total this season. That’s -0.34 σ, which puts it literally right on the D+/C- border. Being in that spot gives one a lot of flexibility to push it in either direction based on other snow parameters, but by the numbers, it looks like there are far fewer stats coming in above average than below. A notable example would be SDD, which came in at -0.60 σ, so that certainly has one leaning toward the D+.” While November snowfall was nowhere near record levels, it was still above average, and it was a very early and strong start to the season. A winter snowpack that starts on the cusp of the first week of November definitely throws some “oomph” into the season. The midwinter months of DJF were around or just slightly below average with 30-40” of snow each, and then there was a strong finish in May. So you had what ended up being an average-ish middle of the season with a strong start and finish that set a number of records in our data set here: First ≥2" snowfall: Nov 8th (EARLIEST) First ≥3" snowfall: Nov 8th (EARLIEST) First ≥4" snowfall: Nov 8th (EARLIEST) First ≥6" snowfall: Nov 8th (EARLIEST) Start of continuous snowpack: Nov 8th (EARLIEST) May snowfall: 5.7” (HIGHEST) All in all, in felt much more like a “below average” winter than anything more extreme than that.

I figured that could use a little FYP – you might need to adjust your expectations now that we’re going to be moving into the time of year with potentially more upslope precipitation. Even over here that type of stuff happens, and we’ve got pretty solid radar coverage of the spine of the Northern Greens and meteorologists at BTV that really focus on fine tuning forecasts in the mountains that are just to their east. From what I’ve seen, coverage over there in the Whites is tougher because the radar source is farther away and/or there are so many surrounding mountains. Per that previous discussion, no, you’re probably not going to have a 40” storm sneak up on you out of nowhere in this day and age, but you’re likely to have the potential for a lot of precipitation that might not be visible/expected. I’m pretty sure Alex has experienced some of that, but it’s one of the reasons folks are excited to have another person reporting out of that area – there’s a lot that goes on that the models and radar don’t necessarily catch.

I think most people on the forum would accept it if they had to, but there would likely be some complaining in the process. It’s hard to know the exact distribution on how all of that would fall, but many people aren’t really keen on what they call “nuisance snow”.

On the composite imagining you can definitely see a northwest flow with that appearance of continuous rebuilding via upslope forcing:

As we can see, Raindance doesn’t have any of those blanket (150-200%) of average areas that forecasters will unwittingly still put out in low variance climates where 200% of normal snowfall is actually +5-6 σ from the mean and has less than 0.00003% chance of happening. That 125 sitting right over our site on the map (which I assume is actually for BTV of course) would still be quite a potent season. It would be up there well above +1 σ and put our site in the 200” range for snowfall. It’s certainly not unprecedented, as 2007-2008 delivered more than 200” here, and I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising with the way 2007-2008 is heavily enriched in the applied analogs. The “Locally 130% of higher” listed in this area on the second map showing regions of snowfall deviations would be pushing things above 1.5 σ and snowfall toward 210”+ if it were to happen at our site. That’s still not out of the question, but obviously more easily achieved at the higher variance sites around here vs. the more mountain-influenced, lower variance sites. In any event, very few of our local skiers would complain if we had to negotiate another ‘07-‘08-esque season though.

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up. A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north. In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite. Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much. PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north. Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway. The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

There’s no doubt about some sort of change in the recent precipitation regime at our site – after only 6 days with precipitation from Sep 1-27, we’ve had measurable every day for the past 7 days, with over 3” of liquid. It absolutely feels like more of a fall pattern in the NNE mountains now with rounds of synoptic precipitation scattered in among more showery/unsettled days. We’ve definitely had some uncommon/surprising short term runs with low precipitation recently, but liquid at our site from June through September was 17.55”, which is only 1.94” below average. It feels more like it was the consistency of the precipitation that was off vs. the longer-term monthly/summer totals that would be associated with any sort of long-term drought issue.

Liquid Totals September: 2.79” (-0.96”) Calendar Year: 37.21” (-2.21”) Water Year: 52.31” (-1.07”) So September is complete, and thus the 2020 water year is as well. Both were about an inch below the average I have in my data set, but certainly nothing too extreme. Calendar year water is running a couple inches behind average pace, but has gotten a notable boost with 3-4” of liquid here in the past week.

The “October snow portends poor winter snowfall” myth is always fun to watch run through the forum this time of year. Even down here in the valley we essentially get snow every October, and the subsequent seasons can’t all be bad – or maybe they all have been bad, which means it could be very interesting if we ever get to see what a good snowfall season is like. In any event, I see that one way to address the issue is to look at the way Tamarack did, with a snowfall threshold. If I apply the simple 1” threshold, in the 14 seasons in my data set there are 7 that fall into the category of <1” of October snowfall, and 7 that fall into the category of ≥1” of October snowfall. The mean snowfall for those seasons is 153.1” and 156.7”, respectively. So I’d say that settles the matter rather solidly – snow weenies can stop wishing away October snowfall as some harbinger of doom and finally embrace it. They know they want it to snow in October anyway, so now they don’t have to be conflicted. One would have to be a fool to give up literally inches of additional snowfall each season by forcefully wishing away October flakes.

Well put - I don’t think we were in any sort of real drought in our area, but a 2”+ L.E. storm would definitely take care of any short term dryness. Indeed, it brought the month to 2.79” of liquid here at our site, which is only 0.74 σ below the mean. The new water year starts tomorrow, so today’s entry concludes the 2020 water year with 52.31” of liquid. That’s really just an inch or two below average according to my data, so not consistent with any sort of longer-term drought in our area at this point.

Yeah, as people have noted, the process of going from color to leaf drop is apparently relatively quick up here in general, and this year is doing that typical progression, augmented by that cold spell to push it forward a bit. I assume Mother Nature knows that as we hit October in this area, snow can fall at any time, and the trees are hopefully on a good pace to avoid the type of fiasco that SNE faced several years back when they had that October snow with lots of leaves still on the trees. There are already some of those early shots of snow for the elevations popping up in the models.

Even as of a couple of days ago we were already past my preference for peak down here in our area of the Winooski Valley. Having some fallen leaves on the ground is a nice look, but once bare trees appear, it’s past peak for me, and even as of this weekend we already had some notable areas of stick season trees. Ahead of the precipitation, the winds from this current system are bringing the leaves down like rain in the yard, so after this passes we’re going to be well on our way into stick season.